Russian invasion of Ukraine

[domalino]

The reports of the UA taking out 30 helicopters last night seem to be getting backed up. We know they were there, we know there was a massive fight and a lot of explosions...just waiting on the videos of burned out helicopters to surface.

 

[mosssideblue]

It’s going to pot and he needs a way out I think. Reports of Russian losses being “unsustainable” in that Mail article and with Russia not taking significant enough territory. Their country’s economy is tanking and pressure internally grows. Putin knows he’s fucked this up and so he’s looking for a way out.

Zelenksyy should call his bluff and tell him to get fucked. Turn your murderous Russian dogs of an army around and never cross that border again you fat ****.

I think he will too. Cannot see him conceding any land to the Russians, and rightly so.

 

[Slipper One]

Three approaches I would consider.
1. NATO call Putin's bluff and support Ukraine by putting boots on the ground and creating a no fly zone for Russian aircraft. Only doing this after telling Putin in no uncertain terms that if he is thinking about going nuclear, Russia would suffer far worse than the rest of the world.

2. If not willing to create a no fly zone, immediately give Ukraine the resources to do that themselves

3. Create a coalition outside of NATO framework to give Ukraine the no fly zone.

Sure, there is a risk that Putin might want to go nuclear, but I would think he would be a lonely figure wanting that, and without full support from his military command, it won't happen.

What cannot continue is this constant war criminality and geneside with others simply watching on because of fear of the bully

Thanks mossside.

I don't think is a case of others simply watching on in fear.

A number of economic actions have been put in place and I think it would be prudent to see what the results of those were first and perhaps squeeze more if required.

More and more people are out on the streets all over Russia and hopefully the discontent will grow and grow.

We don't know what fractures there could be in the Russian elite and I suspect there are some.

The Ukrainian fighting forces are holding up much better than many expected and with a constant flow of weapons to them, that should continue. They also have a huge amount of NATO surveillance information to call upon, along with advice and direction. This thought people have that they are out there fighting this alone, is total BS. There may not be boots on the ground, but they do have a mass of technical support to help them.

If the west puts boots on the ground, it immediately gives him justification for this conflict.

A no fly zone works both ways and apparently there are some juicy targets available.

A lot of the horrific civilian casualties are a result of ground based artillery and a no fly zone won't stop that.

Like you, I view him as a bully, but this time I believe the bully has bitten off more than he expected. There would be a huge amount of work going on behind the scenes that we know nothing about and that would have to be factored in before NATO decided (even if it would consider it), to get directly involved.

I'm not for appeasing Putin, he needs to get what he deserves, but backing him up into a corner with too much force too quickly, may make a person like him lash out and the pressure on him needs to be controlled, by squeezing and squeezing. I'm sure the sanctions and business decisions have surprised him and will hit the Russian economy hard, which will all put him on the back foot.

He's not going to win this battle, the world has committed too much to it now. On the positive side, he has certainly brought the west as a whole more together and opened their eyes and that would most definitely be viewed as a failing on his part. (I'm no psychologist, it's just how I view him).

 

[Protein Junkie]

It’s going to pot and he needs a way out I think. Reports of Russian losses being “unsustainable” in that Mail article and with Russia not taking significant enough territory. Their country’s economy is tanking and pressure internally grows. Putin knows he’s fucked this up and so he’s looking for a way out.

Zelenksyy should call his bluff and tell him to get fucked. Turn your murderous Russian dogs of an army around and never cross that border again you fat ****.

If this turns out exactly as above it does leave me wandering what next ?
I cannot see us saying “ok call it a draw and back to as we all were”.
My first thought was the same as you - he’s looking for a way out and reverted back to a previous list of conditions to present it as job done.
Even if this happened it leaves Putin still there at a great risk to the Western World.
This is the point where I hope normal Russian people see sense and get rid of him.

 

[ZenHalfTimeCrock]

Good thread from an ex Russian foreign minister.

It depends on what is meant by ‘rational actor.’

I am not especially reassured.

See here for the reasons (I read the book a while ago):

Why Won’t They Listen? (Published 2012)

A psychologist argues that people base decisions on moral intuition, not reason.

www.nytimes.com

This sentence stood out in the review:

'The problem isn’t that people don’t reason. They do reason. But their arguments aim to support their conclusions, not yours. Reason doesn’t work like a judge or teacher, impartially weighing evidence or guiding us to wisdom. It works more like a lawyer or press secretary, justifying our acts and judgments to others.'

In other words, we can deploy rationality to pretty much convince ourselves of anything, or as Hume once put it, reason is 'the slave of the passions'. Who knows what intuitions and gut feelings are currently motivating Putin and what rational justifications he might find for doing the unthinkable if push (a red button) came to shove?

Given that MAD is also possibly the ultimate 'black swan event', I am not sure I want to find out.

But it's a wretched situation to have to make a judgement call on, especially when innocent civilians are being deliberately targeted. It's almost as if Putin is trying to provoke us into action. Most of us are empathic and altruistic, and understandably therefore do not wish to remain as mere bystanders while this slaughter is taking place.

So I guess my other point here is that it is the attribute of empathy rather than rationality that Putin may lack. I suspect that to him - keeping Harry Lime's famous speech from The Third Man in mind - other people are just dots with the potential to stop moving forever if need be.

 

[marco]

i think if Putin is looking for a way out and it looks like that to me,we might just find he disapears off the scene in a few weeks or months

 

[kaz7]

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has rejected calls to ease visa requirements for Ukrainians fleeing the conflict.

He said Britain was a "very generous country", but it wants to maintain checks on who is arriving.

The prime minister added: "I think it's sensible given what's going on in Ukraine to make sure that we have some basic ability to check who is coming in.

 

[The Future’s Blue!]

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has rejected calls to ease visa requirements for Ukrainians fleeing the conflict.

He said Britain was a "very generous country", but it wants to maintain checks on who is arriving.

The prime minister added: "I think it's sensible given what's going on in Ukraine to make sure that we have some basic ability to check who is coming in.

Yes to Russians, no to Ukrainians.

 

[Octavian]

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has rejected calls to ease visa requirements for Ukrainians fleeing the conflict.

He said Britain was a "very generous country", but it wants to maintain checks on who is arriving.

The prime minister added: "I think it's sensible given what's going on in Ukraine to make sure that we have some basic ability to check who is coming in.

Maintain the checks, just change the fucking the policy.

 

[N1985]

Amazing isn't it.

An hour ago worried about WW3

Now, it looks like Putin has shit the bed and I'm thinking, let's go and get the murdering **** out of his hidey hole whilst playing the Rocky soundtrack in the background.

 

[Johnny Mars Bar]

Amazing isn't it.

An hour ago worried about WW3

Now, it looks like Putin has shit the bed and I'm thinking, let's go and get the murdering **** out of his hidey hole whilst playing the Rocky soundtrack in the background.

What's happened in the last hour? I've not seen the news today, haven't been able to focus on my screen due to my eyes tearing up from laughing at Rashford publicly saying he wants to leave the rags.

 

[Mr Kobayashi]

Yes to Russians, no to Ukrainians.

There isn't as clear a distinction if they have had to flee without paperwork.

People in the East of the country speak Russian as their first language.

 

[Keith Moncrieff]

Amazing isn't it.

An hour ago worried about WW3

Now, it looks like Putin has shit the bed and I'm thinking, let's go and get the murdering **** out of his hidey hole whilst playing the Rocky soundtrack in the background.

You know something we don’t?

 

[Tuearts right boot]

There isn't as clear a distinction if they have had to flee without paperwork.

People in the East of the country speak Russian as their first language.

Even without any paperwork on them and understandably, we still have finger prints and optical recognition and in this day and age processing should take minutes. No more than a glorified driving licence while they're here. If they want to return then so be it, if they apply to stay then go through the proper channels.

 

[Tuearts right boot]

There really is something about these Ukrainians that you just have to admire and applaud. Whether it's the old blitz mentality of the UK during WW2 kicking in I dont know but I feel so humbled at their cool, calm, collective attitude.

 

[marco]

if those BBC reports are correct and the peace meeting is sheduled for 4pm today then we may see a move in the right direction

 

[Didsbury Dave]

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has rejected calls to ease visa requirements for Ukrainians fleeing the conflict.

He said Britain was a "very generous country", but it wants to maintain checks on who is arriving.

The prime minister added: "I think it's sensible given what's going on in Ukraine to make sure that we have some basic ability to check who is coming in.

Nearly every day I am ashamed to be British.

 

[Elbow beards]

Amazing isn't it.

An hour ago worried about WW3

Now, it looks like Putin has shit the bed and I'm thinking, let's go and get the murdering **** out of his hidey hole whilst playing the Rocky soundtrack in the background.

We are waiting eagerly to know what's changed your mind.

 

[Mr Kobayashi]

Even without any paperwork on them and understandably, we still have finger prints and optical recognition and in this day and age processing should take minutes. No more than a glorified driving licence while they're here. If they want to return then so be it, if they apply to stay then go through the proper channels.

Yes. We can take those details down but we most likely can't cross reference them against anything to confirm if they are Russians or genuine.

That could probably only be confirmed by an interview and investigation to determine veracity of the refugee's life in their home country. Not something that can be done easily at border checkpoints.

 

[Didsbury Dave]

Don’t be daft, the British are a great set of people. The Indian government for example have shown themselves up recently but Indians are sound. It’s important to separate the people from government.

It's not the people I'm ashamed of, it's the government.