Russian invasion of Ukraine

[west didsblue]

Strikes me that there is no way this doesn't end in meltdown for the Russian economy. They are using munitions they cannot easily replace. They are losing airplanes by the dozen that cost tens of millions of dollars each that they cannot replace full stop. The 'special military operation' is a significant drain on their economy in itself. So their economy is under more strain than it normally would be at just the time the sanctions are ratcheted up against it.

In the meantime, the war has settled down (poor choice of phrase, I know) into a grim slog where the Russians make tiny advances and the Ukrainians sustain major structural damage whilst inflicting guerilla-like damage on the Russian military. It all ends in one of two ways in my opinion: either Ukraine collapses before the Russian economy does, and the Russians face an Afghanistan-style guerilla operation until their economy does grind to a complete halt, or the Russian economy collapses before the Ukrainians have fallen, leaving both countries in a desperate state.

What worries me is what Putin will do when that endgame is getting very near.

I think we're being conditioned by our politicians to think that this will go on for a long time. The end game could be a lot sooner than people think if the Russian economy collapses in the short term which is what many are predicting. We thought the world changed after 9/11. That will be a minor footnote compared to the changes as a result of this.

 

[lee_wsm]

Hopefully someone more closely aligned to the west decides to take control by force

 

[Chris in London]

It’s hardly surprising the B word comes up when discussing our government’s immigration policy in relation to refugees. It was voted for by many people largely on the basis of making it as difficult as possible for migrants to get here, whether economic migrants or refugees from war zones.

Nor is it surprising that the subject comes up when the Russians put millions into the leave campaign because it was in their interests to do so.

Mind you, if I'd been duped into becoming an unwitting agent of Russian foreign policy I wouldn't want to talk about it either.

 

[inbetween]

While he's ultimately to blame, I think we've moved past the whole "I didn't know what was going on, Putin just sent us here" phase of the war.

Putin is a war criminal but no one made the man in that tank kill those civilians.

You have to remember that the Russians are brainwashed daily and those on the frontline won't be any different. A majority in their population actually believes that this is a war against proper Nazis who want to hurt Russia and are backed by the west.

 

[SPIDERBOY]

That,and others,should be shown on every news channel across the world.......the sick fucks.

 

[Mr Kobayashi]

I think we're being conditioned by our politicians to think that this will go on for a long time. The end game could be a lot sooner than people think if the Russian economy collapses in the short term which is what many are predicting. We thought the world changed after 9/11. That will be a minor footnote compared to the changes as a result of this.

That might be the case, hopefully it is but it is worth pointing out that we have cut off Venezuela and Iran from the world and made them pariah states.

Neither of those governments have fallen, despite the extreme financial hardship and uncertainty it hasn't resulted in complete political chaos.

 

[metalblue]

That is the standard norm for any attacking force so the russians would need over 1/2 million troops to do the job properly against just Ukraines regular army, not allowing for Ukraines reservists and foreign fighters/mercenaries. The russians thought they were going to walk into Kyev to a round of applause. The russian logistics and communications seem to be fucked but I suppose these things happen in war.

Logistics appear to be fucked because, like you say, they thought they only needed a couple of days to control the whole of Ukraine.

No plan survives the first shots of war …or something like that

 

[paulchapo]

That,and others,should be shown on every news channel across the world.......the sick fucks.

Basically there should be no mercy shown to any captured Russian military as they don't deserve any with acts like this. It's no use crying once they are captured. A simple lay down your arms or face the consequences is the only warning they should get.

 

[metalblue]

View attachment 38132

As crazy as it may sound it’s like Putin is trying to replicate Hitler in several ways - so many similarities.

 

[Chris in London]

Scary stuff.
People in the west need to prepare themselves for difficulties caused by ramping up sanctions to unimaginable levels. No more oil or gas from Russia is urgently needed. The alternative is too horrendous to contemplate, not just for Ukraine but for the whole world.

On a lighter note, I wonder if Everton will change their walk on music.

I always thought it was a pisstake anyway - a TV drama where the cops catch the bad guys every week?

On Merseyside?

 

[kaz7]

The Home Office has sparked anger after announcing it will set up a "pop-up" visa application centre for Ukrainian refugees in Lille, around seventy miles from calais !

Home Office sets up visa application centre for Ukrainian refugees in Lille - 70 miles from Calais

A Tory MP suggests Priti Patel should resign over her actions on the visa application centre, amid condemnation of the UK's refusal to do more to help people fleeing war in Ukraine.

news.sky.com

 

[Chris in London]

Its a piece of propaganda. He is comparing Russian capital with UK annual GDP (I guess because he doesn't label the units used).
Russian deposits do not represent 10% of UK economy.

True, but it's reasonable to point out that the volume of Russian capital in the UK equates to 10% of our GDP.

If that's true.

 

[Mr Kobayashi]

As crazy as it may sound it’s like Putin is trying to replicate Hitler in several ways - so many similarities.

Parallels are everywhere. Similar power structure and philosophy to Hitler as well. Getting his underlings to fight amongst each other so they never consolidate enough power to be able to challenge his position at the head of the table.

Ukraine conflict: Who's in Putin's inner circle and running the war?

Russia's president relies on a small but deeply loyal group of people when he makes key decisions.

www.bbc.com

Putin's inner circle is too busy infighting to topple Russia's tyrant as he goes off the rails

The Russian President has created a clever power structure for subordinates, which encourages different factions and even different individuals to compete with or undermine each other

inews.co.uk

 

[Slipper One]

“the coal fire” - exactly mate, one fire for the whole house and we’ve all used the paper torch trick when no matches along with using paper over the front of the fire to create a draft. What could possibly go wrong?

Geez, I'd forgotten that. That's brought back some memories.

There were a numerous times when the paper was left just a little too long with the black mark emerging and then up it went.......whoosh!! :)

 

[Hayley Croppers chopper]

Geez, I'd forgotten that. That's brought back some memories.

There were a numerous times when the paper was left just a little too long with the black mark emerging and then up it went.......whoosh!! :)

Be careful, you will soon be asked to take this to the politics thread.

 

[Chris in London]

Abu Dhabi and the region break even on $40 a barrel of oil.

Should be at $200 before much longer.

That's Haaland done in the summer, then

 

[hello]

Logistics appear to be fucked because, like you say, they thought they only needed a couple of days to control the whole of Ukraine.

No plan survives the first shots of war …or something like that

“No plan survives contact with the enemy”
A concept acknowledged by most officers, Rommel, Eisenhower, Powell have probably been the biggest advocates of it this century.

from the Russian perspective it certainly looks like their plans were lacking the fluidity to adapt to the planned celebration stule procession into cities with the reality of shots fired and absolute hatred on the streets.

 

[Mr Kobayashi]

The Home Office has sparked anger after announcing it will set up a "pop-up" visa application centre for Ukrainian refugees in Lille, around seventy miles from calais !

Home Office sets up visa application centre for Ukrainian refugees in Lille - 70 miles from Calais

A Tory MP suggests Priti Patel should resign over her actions on the visa application centre, amid condemnation of the UK's refusal to do more to help people fleeing war in Ukraine.

news.sky.com

It’s pathetic but could have been a lot worse just from this government's track record.

These figures don't seem unachievable for people with supportive friends and charitable assistance even though it isn't a pleasant thing to expect from desititute refugees.

Calais to Lille - 4 ways to travel via train, bus, rideshare, and car

The cheapest way to get from Calais to Lille costs only $7, and the quickest way takes just 1 hour. Find the travel option that best suits you.

www.rome2rio.com

 

[Tuearts right boot]

Logistics appear to be fucked because, like you say, they thought they only needed a couple of days to control the whole of Ukraine.

No plan survives the first shots of war …or something like that

Watched a documentary the other day outlining the problems the russians are having and a lot seems to ring true. The russians are so used to operating their army with the use of trains, mainly because their road system is fucked and because of the huge disances. They have their own separate ' train ' army, the supply and logistics is controlled from 'head office ' and everything is ordered and provided on their say so as opposed to NATO whos commanders ask for it when it's needed. It's got to the point apparantly that the russians are disguising their fuel trucks as armoured vehicles because the Ukraines know about this and are focusing their attacks on the fuel situation, thus stopping the convoys. Even down to the snide chinese copy Michelin tyres for their trucks which are useless as can be seen by the amount of flat tyred but functionable vehicles, probably due to funds being ' redirected'....

 

[kaz7]

Another day the ceasefire was a lie, shelling of people trying to get away from mariapol, they have no electricity, water , food or heating

They have demolised a hospital south of karchiv

Sky news