The Title Race - 2021/22

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bluenova said:
I worked this out prior to last night's game, but in the PL this season City and Liverpool have missed the exact same number of big chances, had identical goal/shots ratios of 13%, and had identical xg/goals ratio.

So, any suggestion that Liverpool are somehow more clinical, or City are not ruthless enough, just doesn't hold up.

They've scored a few more goals because they've had more shots overall, but then they've also just had a run where they played teams in the bottom half of the table for weeks on end. Looking at the fixtures left, it would be a surprise if we didn't outscore them between now and the end of the season.
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hope so
 
Withnail said:
Milner not being sent off, obviously helped them without a doubt.
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He was comfortably the worst player on the pitch, he had a very poor game, and they might not have missed him had he gone.
 
M18CTID said:
It occurred to me last night that 15 of the 17 points we’ve dropped this season have been against just 3 teams - Spurs, Palace, and Saints. We’ve failed to win a single one of our 6 games against those teams and of course we’ve played all three of those in our last 7 games. Spurs and Palace in particular have been teams that have caused us problems throughout Pep’s time here. The only other game where we dropped points was the 2-2 draw away to Liverpool.

I’m not saying that now those three teams are out of the way, we’re not dropping any more points this season bar maybe Liverpool, but I thought it was an interesting stat that may (or may not) have some significance during the run-in.
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Very interesting observation, 5 star post.
 
bluenova said:
I worked this out prior to last night's game, but in the PL this season City and Liverpool have missed the exact same number of big chances, had identical goal/shots ratios of 13%, and had identical xg/goals ratio.

So, any suggestion that Liverpool are somehow more clinical, or City are not ruthless enough, just doesn't hold up.

They've scored a few more goals because they've had more shots overall, but then they've also just had a run where they played teams in the bottom half of the table for weeks on end. Looking at the fixtures left, it would be a surprise if we didn't outscore them between now and the end of the season.
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How are you defining “big chances”?
 
Psychedelic Casual said:
He was comfortably the worst player on the pitch, he had a very poor game, and they might not have missed him had he gone.
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I agree he had a poor game, but if Tierney had done his job properly we would have had 16 mins to play against 10 men. Who knows if we would have won, but I think we would have had a decent chance of securing the 3 points.
 
Stoned Rose said:
How are you defining “big chances”?
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I'm not. It's one of the stats on the Premier League site. Apparently...

"A big chance is where the player would reasonably be expected to score and manages to get a shot away. These usually in occur in one-on-one scenarios or from very close range."

Salah, Jota and Mane have all missed more big chances than anyone in the City team this season.
 
Alfie Budd said:
It’s an official stat logged by Opta these days defined as ‘a situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score’.
Some will be obvious but others will always be somewhat subjective.
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You don’t win or lose a game with “predictive” stats. How shit we even have to this is in our heads.
It’s a 90 min game where you commence battle. The best or most lucky team comes out the other side.
 
Nice being the underdog for a change. Now the mighty Liverpool have surged into an insurmountable lead.

Just remember blues…don’t let it slip;)
 
bluenova said:
I'm not. It's one of the stats on the Premier League site. Apparently...

"A big chance is where the player would reasonably be expected to score and manages to get a shot away. These usually in occur in one-on-one scenarios or from very close range."

Salah, Jota and Mane have all missed more big chances than anyone in the City team this season.
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Ta mate, good work.
 
bluenova said:
I worked this out prior to last night's game, but in the PL this season City and Liverpool have missed the exact same number of big chances, had identical goal/shots ratios of 13%, and had identical xg/goals ratio.

So, any suggestion that Liverpool are somehow more clinical, or City are not ruthless enough, just doesn't hold up.

They've scored a few more goals because they've had more shots overall, but then they've also just had a run where they played teams in the bottom half of the table for weeks on end. Looking at the fixtures left, it would be a surprise if we didn't outscore them between now and the end of the season.
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I was looking at exactly that this week. But was thinking that a big chance missed could also end up hitting the corner flag despite being a big chance so I also looked at who has hit the woodwork the most.

E45290A4-3D74-4725-9479-12158AF00BA6.jpeg

A number of these might not be big chances in the definition, but are chances that might have gone in.
 
Psychedelic Casual said:
I was looking at exactly that this week. But was thinking that a big chance missed could also end up hitting the corner flag despite being a big chance so I also looked at who has hit the woodwork the most.

View attachment 38850

A number of these might not be big chances in the definition, but are chances that might have gone in.
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If they're big chances, that are hitting the post instead of being missed, does that make the player more clinical? Then again is hitting the post better or worse than it being saved?

If you're bored, you could go and check the post hits. I had a look at the three games we dropped point recently and we hit the post 5 times, but four of those had xgs of 0.02, 0.06, 0.04 and 0.03 so they were a long way from big chances. The De Bruyne one at Palace was 0.26, but was given as offside.
 
lot of turns left in title race
Could end up with dippers playing bayern Munich Twice in champions league semis and the an FA cup semi with us or Chelsea
Dippers also have spurs, Everton and united home games along with us Newcastle and villa away
We could be playing three games with Chelsea As well!
Form in March gives you a chance but April and may is the real crunch time
 
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Must be the first time I'm not pissed off there is an international break on. Could actually do us a bit of good, to refocus on getting a bit of consistency and wins in a row.

Liverpool managed to just see their run through to the break too, so not exactly a distraction for them, might be a breather there too, but could also take that edge theyve been clinging onto off a bit.
 
Coatigan said:
Must be the first time I'm not pissed off there is an international break on. Could actually do us a bit of good, to refocus on getting a bit of consistency and wins in a row.

Liverpool managed to just see their run through to the break too, so not exactly a distraction for them, might be a breather there too, but could also take that edge theyve been clinging onto off a bit.
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Most important factor of the international break is our players returning injury/covid free.
 
Withnail said:
Most important factor of the international break is our players returning injury/covid free.
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Couldn't see Portugal on the list of fixtures, do they not play this round? Both of England's games seem to be at home.
 
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