The Title Race - 2021/22

[Newman Noggs]

Most important factor of the international break is our players returning injury/covid free.

Exactly, and our record to date is not auspicious.

 

[Big Swifty]

We need to win eight PL games, assuming that one is against Liverpool.

 

[Chippy_boy]

I worked this out prior to last night's game, but in the PL this season City and Liverpool have missed the exact same number of big chances, had identical goal/shots ratios of 13%, and had identical xg/goals ratio.

So, any suggestion that Liverpool are somehow more clinical, or City are not ruthless enough, just doesn't hold up.

They've scored a few more goals because they've had more shots overall, but then they've also just had a run where they played teams in the bottom half of the table for weeks on end. Looking at the fixtures left, it would be a surprise if we didn't outscore them between now and the end of the season.

What's the expression? Lies, damned lies and statistics?

Anyone can see with their own eyes that in the main, we are not that clinical and that (Sporting aside) this has been very evident over recent games. I don't really care what the stats say - it's obvious.

 

[bluenova]

What's the expression? Lies, damned lies and statistics?

Anyone can see with their own eyes that in the main, we are not that clinical and that (Sporting aside) this has been very evident over recent games. I don't really care what the stats say - it's obvious.

And are you watching every minute of Liverpool's game's too?

Perhaps you could, with your own eyes, make a note of how many shots both teams have, and whether they score from them. If you're really into trusting your own eyes, why not record the games, slow them down, and then make a note of how difficult you think each chance is that we're missing/scoring and then compare them with Liverpool's chances. Do you think that might work?

Sure, stats can be misused, but what you're almost certainly doing is watching City with your pint half full. Your eyes tell the story you want them to tell - these stats are so similar that arguing one team is more clinical just doesn't hold up.

 

[Chippy_boy]

And are you watching every minute of Liverpool's game's too?

Perhaps you could, with your own eyes, make a note of how many shots both teams have, and whether they score from them. If you're really into trusting your own eyes, why not record the games, slow them down, and then make a note of how difficult you think each chance is that we're missing/scoring and then compare them with Liverpool's chances. Do you think that might work?

Sure, stats can be misused, but what you're almost certainly doing is watching City with your pint half full. Your eyes tell the story you want them to tell - these stats are so similar that arguing one team is more clinical just doesn't hold up.

I don't agree with you.

 

[Brightwell Bros.]

And are you watching every minute of Liverpool's game's too?

Perhaps you could, with your own eyes, make a note of how many shots both teams have, and whether they score from them. If you're really into trusting your own eyes, why not record the games, slow them down, and then make a note of how difficult you think each chance is that we're missing/scoring and then compare them with Liverpool's chances. Do you think that might work?

Sure, stats can be misused, but what you're almost certainly doing is watching City with your pint half full. Your eyes tell the story you want them to tell - these stats are so similar that arguing one team is more clinical just doesn't hold up.

Yeah, there's a little bit of the old everyone thinking their team is shit at corners because they never seem to go in, whereas every team doesn't score often from corners but no one watches the other teams.

Liverpool have a slightly better xg and goals for, but a slightly worse xg against and goals against, and their goals aren't as spread out among the team, so Salah is more clinical, but I do wonder if people are really watching Liverpool regularly reading this thread.

 

[DMA's]

Win our next two league games and the gap will be 4 points. 4 points with 7 games left is a huge advantage particular with our remaining fixtures and theirs.

Win the next 2 and the league is pretty much won imo

 

[bluenova]

Yeah, there's a little bit of the old everyone thinking their team is shit at corners because they never seem to go in, whereas every team doesn't score often from corners but no one watches the other teams.

Liverpool have a slightly better xg and goals for, but a slightly worse xg against and goals against, and their goals aren't as spread out among the team, so Salah is more clinical, but I do wonder if people are really watching Liverpool regularly reading this thread.

And yet Salah has missed more big chances that anyone else in the PL this season, and he's needed more attempts to score a goal than Sterling.

He's undoubtedly one of the best players in the world, but, like just about every player on the planet, he misses a LOT more than he scores.

 

[Brightwell Bros.]

And yet Salah has missed more big chances that anyone else in the PL this season, and he's needed more attempts to score a goal than Sterling.

He's undoubtedly one of the best players in the world, but, like just about every player on the planet, he misses a LOT more than he scores.

Yep. You can tell when a game isn't going well for Liverpool when Salah starts snatching at shots when there are better passes on. In the same way you can tell when a game isn't going well for City when they over pass it even if a shot is on.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Win our next two league games and the gap will be 4 points. 4 points with 7 games left is a huge advantage particular with our remaining fixtures and theirs.

Win the next 2 and the league is pretty much won imo

I think you're probably right. However, easier said than done.

Our H2H record against Liverpool over the last 10 games in all comps is W4, D3, L3.

Sure we have the home advantage, but on the other hand I don't think we're playing as well right now as we have been over the past couple of seasons.

So the game at our place could go absolutely anywhere IMO. We could coast it 4-0 or get stuffed 0-4 the other way around. Or it could be a 0-0 draw.

In my mind, we at our best are better than them at their best, and therefore if both teams turn up, chances are we win. Question is, will we turn up. And luck plays a big part in it as well of course. Dodgy sending off or penalties not given etc.

Bottom line is I have no clue whether we'll beat them at our place or not. No clue.

 

[Chippy_boy]

And yet Salah has missed more big chances that anyone else in the PL this season, and he's needed more attempts to score a goal than Sterling.

He's undoubtedly one of the best players in the world, but, like just about every player on the planet, he misses a LOT more than he scores.

A bit like Aguero, whose reputation was that he was deadly, whereas in fact he missed LOADS. But fortunately, created LOADS of chances for himself as well.

 

[Withnail]

I think you're probably right. However, easier said than done.

Our H2H record against Liverpool over the last 10 games in all comps is W4, D3, L3.

Sure we have the home advantage, but on the other hand I don't think we're playing as well right now as we have been over the past couple of seasons.

So the game at our place could go absolutely anywhere IMO. We could coast it 4-0 or get stuffed 0-4 the other way around. Or it could be a 0-0 draw.

In my mind, we at our best are better than them at their best, and therefore if both teams turn up, chances are we win. Question is, will we turn up. And luck plays a big part in it as well of course. Dodgy sending off or penalties not given etc.

Bottom line is I have no clue whether we'll beat them at our place or not. No clue.

Ref and Var no doubt could also have a bearing on the result.

 

[Millwallawayveteran1988]

Ref and Var no doubt could also have a bearing on the result.

Got Taylor or Oliver written all over it this one.

 

[Withnail]

Got Taylor or Oliver written all over it this one.

Don't even go there.

 

[Johnny Mars Bar]

I think you're probably right. However, easier said than done.

Our H2H record against Liverpool over the last 10 games in all comps is W4, D3, L3.

Sure we have the home advantage, but on the other hand I don't think we're playing as well right now as we have been over the past couple of seasons.

So the game at our place could go absolutely anywhere IMO. We could coast it 4-0 or get stuffed 0-4 the other way around. Or it could be a 0-0 draw.

In my mind, we at our best are better than them at their best, and therefore if both teams turn up, chances are we win. Question is, will we turn up. And luck plays a big part in it as well of course. Dodgy sending off or penalties not given etc.

Bottom line is I have no clue whether we'll beat them at our place or not. No clue.

We tend to turn up in the big moments.

In a weird way I am far more worried about the likes of Burnley and Villa than I am about Liverpool.

 

[Chippy_boy]

We tend to turn up in the big moments.

In a weird way I am far more worried about the likes of Burnley and Villa than I am about Liverpool.

Strange you should see it that way, because I see the opposite. When we've won the league in the past, most impressive for me was our ability to go on winning streaks, grinding out result after result after result. Especially evident when we hung on to our 1 point lead over Liverpool, winning all the games in the run in and finishing on 98 points.

And whilst there have been big crunch games in our past where we have delivered - United at home in the Aguerooooo season for example - I can think of many more where we've ballsed it up. CL final of course; Monaco 2nd leg; Lyon; Liverpool away in the CL etc.

So I have no confidence we will beat Liverpool at home, merely a hope that we will.

 

[Katsunari Takayama]

Strange you should see it that way, because I see the opposite. When we've won the league in the past, most impressive for me was our ability to go on winning streaks, grinding out result after result after result. Especially evident when we hung on to our 1 point lead over Liverpool, winning all the games in the run in and finishing on 98 points.

And Aswhilst there have been big crunch games in our past where we have delivered - United at home in the Aguerooooo season for example - I can think of many more where we've ballsed it up. CL final of course; Monaco 2nd leg; Lyon; Liverpool away in the CL etc.

So I have no confidence we will beat Liverpool at home, merely a hope that we will.

You’ve got a very selective memory which seems to hone in on defeats. Why have you cited the Monaco last 16 CL game as a “crunch” game when you haven’t mentioned all the last 16 games we’ve won ? Just off the top of my head here are some crunch games we’ve won

PSG home and away 2021
Dortmund home and away 2021
League Cup final 2021
League Cup final 2020
Real Madrid home and away 2020
League Cuo final 2019
Dippers home league 2019
Rags away league 2019
FA Cup final 2019
Soton away league 2018
League Cup final 2018

 

[Chippy_boy]

You’ve got a very selective memory which seems to hone in on defeats. Why have you cited the Monaco last 16 CL game as a “crunch” game when you haven’t mentioned all the last 16 games we’ve won ? Just off the top of my head here are some crunch games we’ve won

PSG home and away 2021
Dortmund home and away 2021
League Cup final 2021
League Cup final 2020
Real Madrid home and away 2020
League Cuo final 2019
Dippers home league 2019
Rags away league 2019
FA Cup final 2019
Soton away league 2018
League Cup final 2018

Fair point. I probably just remember the fuck-ups more.

 

[Pezzer2]

This International break has done me the world of good. The Palace result and negativity creeping in was getting a bit over the top.
Its about time I try to change Tact supporting the blues for this run in. I hated the last race with Liverpool in 18/19 until we actually won it of course. I'm just going to somehow try and embrace this (Isn't this what football's about) even if we fall short the journey has been fantastic again. Pep's not going to last forever, lets just cherish what we have in front of us. How many opposition fans would love to be in our position. I'm really looking forward for this finale to the season (although my bank balance won't). I'm going to try and take a step back from Social Media, especially if we have a negative result, just going to ignore the negativity that spills our way from Jealous fans and journalists and not get into any pointless spats which lead nowhere, so its best to detach myself from the whining people trying to decimate our club and have fun watching the game with fellow blues.
Time to strap myself and enjoy the ride. If we fail to win any trophies so be it, it still has been a great ride and we reset and start again (Hopefully with Haaland leading the line ;). I have faith though, lets see where it gets us. Up the blues!!

Oh and I believe 93 points would be enough assuming we don't get beat in the game against them. 2 draws and the rest wins . Easily said than done!

 

[DMA's]

Simple for me. Win our next two league games and the gap will be 4 points with 7 games left. Given their remaining fixtures I would say that gap would mean the league is as good as won. Two huge finals coming up