The Conservative Party

Ifwecouldjust....... said:
Apparently due to Johnson wanting to break WTO Rules and illegally impose tariffs on Steel (taking back control or sovrinty or sumfink)
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Something like that - maintaining a benefit given which breaks the WTO rules.

What seems to have been the trigger is that they've asked Geidt about the ethics of deliberately breaking the state aid rules in order to help the steel industry. That's a ridiculous question to ask - it's looking for a patsy to say "we consulted over ethics", as it serves no other purpose - as it's a political question not an ethics question.
 
MillionMilesAway said:
Something like that - maintaining a benefit given which breaks the WTO rules.

What seems to have been the trigger is that they've asked Geidt about the ethics of deliberately breaking the state aid rules in order to help the steel industry. That's a ridiculous question to ask - it's looking for a patsy to say "we consulted over ethics", as it serves no other purpose - as it's a political question not an ethics question.
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Pretty much. And surely if there was an ethical issue you would have a different ethics advisor to advise on trade policy rather than use the same bloke that advises on internal and administrative matters.
 
Ifwecouldjust....... said:
How much is the current price of fuel due to devaluation of sterling due to Brexit?

1 Pound Sterling = 1.23 US Dollar
Last updated · 17 June, 06:22 UTC
GBP £ - Pound Sterling
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Not a lot. We were heading for parity against the Euro but that seems to have been arrested, though the initial drop immediately after the referendum has never been recovered.

Big drop in last 12 months of sterling (and Euro) against the dollar, so possibly Brexit was bad for both currencies.
 
Fode N The Hole said:
Pretty much. And surely if there was an ethical issue you would have a different ethics advisor to advise on trade policy rather than use the same bloke that advises on internal and administrative matters.
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How about a bishop? 26 of them in Parliament to advise on ethical issues. Or Mogg could ask the Pope or one of his lefty legates for ethical advice.
 
Ifwecouldjust....... said:
Apparently due to Johnson wanting to break WTO Rules and illegally impose tariffs on Steel (taking back control or sovrinty or sumfink)
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I’ve pointed out before on here that this issue (tariffs v free trade) is the one that will likely reappear and divide the Conservatives again. Hard to go around the world banging the free trade drum when you’re imposing your own tariffs to protect domestic industries.
 
Ifwecouldjust....... said:
How much is the current price of fuel due to devaluation of sterling due to Brexit?

1 Pound Sterling = 1.23 US Dollar
Last updated · 17 June, 06:22 UTC
GBP £ - Pound Sterling
Click to expand...
I used to trade oil, badly. If the dollar strengthens, commodities like oil go down and vice versa. The dollar is strong against everything right now, except the Ruble, I got an alert on my phone that it’s at a 1998 high against the yen this week for example.

Right now oil is going up despite the dollars strength, mainly due to the west not buying from Russia and OPEC+ not increasing production (despite the US trying their hardest get them to do so) because they’re happy with the price.

Maybe the £ would be higher the against the dollar if it wasn’t for brexit but I guess 5-10%.

The government charge us about 58p in tax per litre, but then add 20% VAT on top of the whole bill, if petrol is £1.90 then 38p is VAT and 58p in fuel tax. They just reduced this to 53p for a year. However, because VAT is a percentage the government are making 13p a litre more (I’m including the 5p discount) from petrol than they were at £1 a litre.

Also, the petrol stations themselves take the piss when the price is higher, I assume their margins are on a percentage but don’t really know.
 
bluesteel said:
I used to trade oil, badly. If the dollar strengthens, commodities like oil go down and vice versa. The dollar is strong against everything right now, except the Ruble, I got an alert on my phone that it’s at a 1998 high against the yen this week for example.

Right now oil is going up despite the dollars strength, mainly due to the west not buying from Russia and OPEC+ not increasing production (despite the US trying their hardest get them to do so) because they’re happy with the price.

Maybe the £ would be higher the against the dollar if it wasn’t for brexit but I guess 5-10%.

The government charge us about 58p in tax per litre, but then add 20% VAT on top of the whole bill, if petrol is £1.90 then 38p is VAT and 58p in fuel tax. They just reduced this to 53p for a year. However, because VAT is a percentage the government are making 13p a litre more (I’m including the 5p discount) from petrol than they were at £1 a litre.

Also, the petrol stations themselves take the piss when the price is higher, I assume their margins are on a percentage but don’t really know.
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There's a political problem as well because unlike others the OPEC countries are generally still friends with Russia so they'll probably be very cautious around increasing supply as a lower oil price could bankrupt Russian producers....

Who is in charge of those Russian producers? Oligarchs, and most oligarchs are stashed away in the middle east to avoid sanctions at the moment so they likely wield considerable influence as that's where their money now is.

I bet Dubai is absolutely booming with Russian money right now (as if it wasn't already).
 
inbetween said:
There's a political problem as well because unlike others the OPEC countries are generally still friends with Russia so they'll probably be very cautious around increasing supply as a lower oil price could bankrupt Russian producers....

Who is in charge of those Russian producers? Oligarchs, and most oligarchs are stashed away in the middle east to avoid sanctions at the moment so they likely wield considerable influence as that's where their money now is.
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No, they won’t increase supply because they won’t make as much money. If they increase production so will Russia, Russia might not have as many buyers but even if they sell at a discount to non sanctioning countries, supply goes up, price comes down. OPEC aren’t interested in this.

The only way OPEC increase is to take Russian market share if output decreases.

OPEC don’t give a fuck about the Russian war any more than the west give a fuck about the ongoing Tigray war which has left 300,000+ dead since November 2020, and the UAE has intervened in, or Yemen, which Saudi has intervened in.
 
Ifwecouldjust....... said:
Apparently due to Johnson wanting to break WTO Rules and illegally impose tariffs on Steel (taking back control or sovrinty or sumfink)
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Given that we have traded in breech of the WTO rules for a couple of years by allowing unfettered access to our markets to 27 countries. He could have used that reason anytime he wanted to - its just the latest one he used to bale because he could see the way he and his reputation were going
 
Vic said:
"Limited and specific” it certainly isn’t.

www.politicshome.com

The Northern Ireland Protocol Bill is one of the most extraordinary pieces of legislation I have ever seen

Compared with the Internal Market Bill, which I resigned over, this is a wholly different order.
www.politicshome.com www.politicshome.com
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He seems a little unimpressed!

It does sound utterly ludicrous - Truss deciding what the law is depending on how angry she is trying to be? someone else changing it the next day, no parliamentary voting - government by diktat. The Lords will torch it. It only then matters how much the Tory rump back it and how much they will let go.
 
bluesteel said:
No, they won’t increase supply because they won’t make as much money. If they increase production so will Russia, Russia might not have as many buyers but even if they sell at a discount to non sanctioning countries, supply goes up, price comes down. OPEC aren’t interested in this.

The only way OPEC increase is to take Russian market share if output decreases.

OPEC don’t give a fuck about the Russian war any more than the west give a fuck about the ongoing Tigray war which has left 300,000+ dead since November 2020, and the UAE has intervened in, or Yemen, which Saudi has intervened in.
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Didn't OPEC try to bankrupt US producers around 10 years ago by increasing supply to lower the price? I can recall the ships parked off ports full of oil because there was so much supply. I knew someone at the time who worked in Aberdeen who lost their job because of it as it was more expensive to drill the oil than the price to sell it.

It's a perfect time for huge monopolies to put competitors out of business and as you say it's a once in a lifetime opportunity to steal Russian market share, especially if they're more competitive in exports to China. It's already happening with the big middle east increases in gas exports to the west so why is oil any different?
 
bluethrunthru said:
Given that we have traded in breech of the WTO rules for a couple of years by allowing unfettered access to our markets to 27 countries. He could have used that reason anytime he wanted to - its just the latest one he used to bale because he could see the way he and his reputation were going
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Buttocks or canon?
 
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