How do we resolve the Brexit mess?

[gordondaviesmoustache]

True. You’ll hear neither Labour nor the Conservatives mention Brexit in the House, certainly not in any critical way, so it’s left to the SNP, Liberal Democrat’s, and Greens (e.g. Caroline Lucas yesterday) to point out the bleeding obvious. Unless there is a hung Parliament, the entire subject will be off the table for its duration, so that means until 2030, by which time 14 years will have lapsed since ‘democracy’ had its say.

You’re making a lot of assumptions there, mate. Plenty can change in ways none of us can predict. You only need to look at the last six years to
appreciate that.

 

[Gabriel]

You’re making a lot of assumptions there, mate. Plenty can change in ways none of us can predict. You only need to look at the last six years to
appreciate that.

My presumptions are only based on the current evidence, GDM. The two main parties are content to downplay its significance as they still perceive it as electoral dynamite in England, so something significant would have to change between now and the next General Election to have the subject back on their agendas. If there is a hung Parliament, that situation might change, granted, but it’s hard to see it changing otherwise based on what is happening now.

 

[Vic]

More likely to be like the Dallas episode with Bobby Ewing in the shower.
You wake up one morning to discover it was all a bad dream.

We had the chance to wake up in the morning and make it a bad dream. Democracy apparently means that once you make a mistake you have to live with it.

 

[Gabriel]

Rachel Reeves was ‘questioned’ on Radio 4 about joining the single market but would only talk about veterinary certificates and making it easier for musicians to tour Europe. Wasn’t ‘questioned’ on how much that would add as a percentage to the country’s GDP but said there was no going back into the single market. Hunt was also given an easy ride on nondoms.

 

[Rascal]

The question is not so much will the UK re-join as will the EU want us back.

I would have thought that if the UK re-joined then the terms would be very different to what we had, and the politicians know that which is the reason it has become unspeakable. It is my expectation that re-joining would mean having to accept the Euro and getting rid of Sterling. I do not think that is an arguable point for any party at this time and would be massively opposed by the rabid wing media and the little Englander cohort. Free movement and Schengen I would expect to be further conditions and that would send the Anti-Immigration crowd apoplectic.

i do not think it is feasible for Labour or the Tories to advocate for re-join considering the above, which means the default setting is what we have with both parties trying to make the best of it. The Tories are the most likely of the two main parties to pull off re-join because of their ability to reinvent themselves, it would destroy Labour and paint the party as Anti British for a generation.

Therefore, remain voters do not get your hopes up.

 

[west didsblue]

The question is not so much will the UK re-join as will the EU want us back.

I would have thought that if the UK re-joined then the terms would be very different to what we had, and the politicians know that which is the reason it has become unspeakable. It is my expectation that re-joining would mean having to accept the Euro and getting rid of Sterling. I do not think that is an arguable point for any party at this time and would be massively opposed by the rabid wing media and the little Englander cohort. Free movement and Schengen I would expect to be further conditions and that would send the Anti-Immigration crowd apoplectic.

i do not think it is feasible for Labour or the Tories to advocate for re-join considering the above, which means the default setting is what we have with both parties trying to make the best of it. The Tories are the most likely of the two main parties to pull off re-join because of their ability to reinvent themselves, it would destroy Labour and paint the party as Anti British for a generation.

Therefore, remain voters do not get your hopes up.

When the Brexit bullshitters were saying we needed to get out to make sure we kept the pound and that we needed to avoid ever closer integration, I argued that the quickest way for us to end up in the Euro and lose all our opt outs would be to leave because several years down the line we would be in the shit and EU membership would be the only route back to prosperity, and our desperation to rejoin would mean we would have to accept everything. I still think this is the case and we will end up back in with the Euro, Schengen and everything else we previously turned our noses up at. It's just a matter of time. I'll predict 10 years, although it has gone to shit a lot quicker than I thought it would so it might be quicker. I expected a much more gradual, barely perceptible decline in comparison with our neighbours but the way things have gone have exceeded all expectations in the wrong way.

 

[Manchester33]

The question is not so much will the UK re-join as will the EU want us back.

Can you give me a good reason why the EU wouldn't want the third-biggest economy back?

I do think Brexit has been an unmitigated disaster (it didn't have to be, but the May/Johnson governments were the worst possible governments at the worst possible times) but there is this weird mentality in our country where everyone downplays how important we are as a nation.

 

[Alan Harper's Tash]

Can you give me a good reason why the EU wouldn't want the third-biggest economy back?

I do think Brexit has been an unmitigated disaster (it didn't have to be, but the May/Johnson governments were the worst possible governments at the worst possible times) but there is this weird mentality in our country where everyone downplays how important we are as a nation.

Financially, it makes a lot of sense to allow us back, but politically, it’s less attractive.

 

[west didsblue]

Can you give me a good reason why the EU wouldn't want the third-biggest economy back?

I do think Brexit has been an unmitigated disaster (it didn't have to be, but the May/Johnson governments were the worst possible governments at the worst possible times) but there is this weird mentality in our country where everyone downplays how important we are as a nation.

We used to be the second biggest EU economy. If they wait a bit longer we'll be down to 4th or 5th and they'll get more concessions from us.

 

[Gabriel]

which means the default setting is what we have with both parties trying to make the best of it.

Tend to agree with your general prognosis, but the bit in bold is the part I find harder to accept. The mainstream politicians are not prepared to address the elephant in the room and explain that things could actually be much better. Instead, everyone will now have to be materially poorer because discussing the alternative might be electorally difficult for them in their key battlegrounds. Politicians should be engaged in making everyone’s lives better, not in making the best of a bad lot, and certainly not in pandering to a narrow band of constituencies. Like you, however, I don’t envision this changing.

 

[Rascal]

Can you give me a good reason why the EU wouldn't want the third-biggest economy back?

I do think Brexit has been an unmitigated disaster (it didn't have to be, but the May/Johnson governments were the worst possible governments at the worst possible times) but there is this weird mentality in our country where everyone downplays how important we are as a nation.

As Mr Tache put it ever so politely. The UK are fucking nuisances, we were never as engaged as the rest of the EU in the project and Brexit itself has shown us to be unreliable and dare I say untrustworthy.

 

[west didsblue]

Tend to agree with your general prognosis, but the bit in bold is the part I find harder to accept. The mainstream politicians are not prepared to address the elephant in the room and explain that things could actually be much better. Instead, everyone will now have to be materially poorer because discussing the alternative might be electorally difficult for them in their key battlegrounds. Politicians should be engaged in making everyone’s lives better, not in making the best of a bad lot, and certainly not in pandering to a narrow band of constituencies. Like you, however, I don’t envision this changing.

It certainly won't change before the next election, but two more years of people getting poorer and more pissed off while the EU is recovering better from the impact of the Ukraine war could easily change the agenda in the aftermath of an election.

 

[Gabriel]

but there is this weird mentality in our country where everyone downplays how important we are as a nation.

I think that there also many who overplay its importance. That is not to denigrate the UK, just to appreciate that many of the qualities highlighted as ‘uniquely’ British can be found elsewhere as well.

 

[Colin Bells Boots]

It certainly won't change before the next election, but two more years of people getting poorer and more pissed off while the EU is recovering better from the impact of the Ukraine war could easily change the agenda in the aftermath of an election.

If that were to happen I think the UK would find the cost of re-entry would be significantly greater and difficult due to the performance of the government whislt " enjoying " their day in the sun, post Brexit.

 

[Alan Harper's Tash]

I think that there also many who overplay its importance. That is not to denigrate the UK, just to appreciate that many of the qualities highlighted as ‘uniquely’ British can be found elsewhere as well.

Behave.

Who else would take queuing so seriously that TV celebrities are petitioned to be sacked for being able to walk past the head of state in a coffin?

 

[west didsblue]

If that were to happen I think the UK would find the cost of re-entry would be significantly greater and difficult due to the performance of the government whislt " enjoying " their day in the sun, post Brexit.

Undoubtedly.

 

[Grassland Blue]

Can you give me a good reason why the EU wouldn't want the third-biggest economy back?

I do think Brexit has been an unmitigated disaster (it didn't have to be, but the May/Johnson governments were the worst possible governments at the worst possible times) but there is this weird mentality in our country where everyone downplays how important we are as a nation.

This is a 'Clarkie' and I claim my 10 euros....

 

[Gabriel]

It certainly won't change before the next election, but two more years of people getting poorer and more pissed off while the EU is recovering better from the impact of the Ukraine war could easily change the agenda in the aftermath of an election.

Quite possible, but in that timeframe, it would be hard for a (presumably) Labour Government to transition from closer cooperation on veterinary checks (its likely manifesto position) to re-entry to the single market, let alone rejoining the Union proper.

It's interesting that you raise the point of Ukraine. When it prevails, which God willing it must, then the EU will likely have to fast-track its entry into the Union, a decision that will have immediate economic consequences for the other Member States. If a British Government was ever serious about rejoining, then that moment might be opportune, and it might find the other countries in a less retributive mood.

 

[Fred_Quimby]

When the Brexit bullshitters were saying we needed to get out to make sure we kept the pound and that we needed to avoid ever closer integration, I argued that the quickest way for us to end up in the Euro and lose all our opt outs would be to leave because several years down the line we would be in the shit and EU membership would be the only route back to prosperity, and our desperation to rejoin would mean we would have to accept everything. I still think this is the case and we will end up back in with the Euro, Schengen and everything else we previously turned our noses up at. It's just a matter of time. I'll predict 10 years, although it has gone to shit a lot quicker than I thought it would so it might be quicker. I expected a much more gradual, barely perceptible decline in comparison with our neighbours but the way things have gone have exceeded all expectations in the wrong way.

Intend to agree but it will need a huge change from the sh1te media in reporting how good that would be and that is not going to happen any time soon.

 

[west didsblue]

Quite possible, but in that timeframe, it would be hard for a (presumably) Labour Government to transition from closer cooperation on veterinary checks (its likely manifesto position) to re-entry to the single market, let alone rejoining the Union proper.

It's interesting that you raise the point of Ukraine. When it prevails, which God willing it must, then the EU will likely have to fast-track its entry into the Union, a decision that will have immediate economic consequences for the other Member States. If a British Government was ever serious about rejoining, then that moment might be opportune, and it might find the other countries in a less retributive mood.

I don't expect we will re-join the single market or EU any time soon. I just think we will start to re-evaluate after the election and that process could take years.