Middle East Conflict

Churchlawtonblue said:
Occupying a country for security reasons, dsiplacing its inhabitants then settling it with your own. Ummm not great is it.
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They are sending out conflicting messages, if Hamas isn’t in charge then it will be Israel because no other country nor Fatah are willing to do so, here’s the rub they can’t reduce the place to rubble destroy the governing infrastructure and then walk away because it will just start again, they’ve broke it and they are going to have to fix it, the political capital they had has been spent and I doubt anyone is going to help them clean it up

There is a big if involved, Biden may pull a rabbit out of the hat with a comprehensive peace deal as the price for his what many in the diplomatic world have thought bizarre embracing of the Israeli government, he needs to do something to restore credibility
 
halfcenturyup said:
A ceasefire is clearly needed, but we need to be realistic. Hamas won't give up their only bargaining chip for a ceasefire. At least, I wouldn't in their position. Once they have done that, what is to stop Israel resuming hostilities again if their objective is, as you say, to eliminate Hamas?

Israel have got themselves into a hopeless position, imho, if their objective really is to eliminate Hamas. Firstly, because they can't. Secondly, because even if they did, something worse would pop up. But they can't stop without a win. I just don't see what that could be. Which is why I think the objective must be something else.
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You have a niggling doubt, would you say?
 
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Ducado said:
I’m not on any side but basic humanity, twice when I lived in Israel I was in the vicinity of katosha rockets fired from Lebanon I know how terrifying it is, I abhor violence and war except when a country is in an existential crisis , plus knowing just how counterproductive this war is

Also the US will end this when the pressure becomes too much, it normally takes about 3 weeks but given the brutality of the Hamas attack it will take longer
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Thanks for your personal background, it helps to understand your position.

On USA, I'd say they won't weaken Israel's position in the Middle East publicly, not an inch.
And in my perception the stream of terrible pictures and news has decreased, combined with the fact that humans get used to the same stimulus and then carry on with daily life. All has been said and repeated times and again. Fighting Hamas in Gaza City won't increase international pressure I think.

And Biden surely won't forget his 2024 campaign...
 
The "they did this, so we did that" dialogue surrounding this whole shit show is horrendous.

I spoke to a young man today who can only see one side. I wanted to scream at him, but my job means I have to remain impartial.

The whole thing needs both parties allowing an arbitrator to put into place the foundations of something/anything that makes things better than this.
 
BayernMan said:
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Just adding the context on that:

It was State Department spokesman Vedant Patel who told reporters:
"Our viewpoint is that Palestinians must be at the forefront of these decisions and Gaza is Palestinian land and it will remain Palestinian land,"

"Generally speaking, we do not support the reoccupation of Gaza and neither does Israel," he said. ...

Patel said that the United States agreed "there is no returning to the October 6 status quo," referring to the day before a massive attack by Hamas.

"Israel and the region must be secure and Gaza should and can no longer be a base from which to launch terror attacks against the people of Israel or anyone else," Patel said.
 
Jazzyblue said:
After 846 pages - wow - I feel like I'm gatecrashing this thread chipping in at this stage, but the post above is an absolutely key point, apologies if the points I make have been made before.

This conflict is being packaged to us as a conflict between a Western democracy and Islamist nutters. But the truth is the forces leading Netanyahu are largely far right or fundamentalist, they are not interested in liberalism, gay rights, or any of the other things which are used to make the case that Israel is the only democracy in the ME.

The endgame for some close to Bibi is a theocracy in which the Third Temple is restored. The American evangelical right supports them in this because of the belief that when the Third Temple is restored, the end of the world is close at hand.

If Bibi and his fellow travellers clung to power, once they had pushed the people of Gaza into Egypt, they would move on to another power grab which will weaken the dream of a liberal Israel, which many Jewish people in Israel and the diaspora will not like - just as Bibi was attempting when things deteriorated so badly.

The attack of October 7 was horrific and Hamas are a murderous racket, but there's so much opportunism in politics. Bibi and his mates aren't just motivated by security or even revenge. You've got a load of oil and gas waiting to be exploited in Gaza, the dream of a Greater Israel free of Palestinians, End Times philosophies and an authoritarian government agenda all in the mix here.

Our government - in wanting to demonise protest and protect the trade deal with Israel - is making it worse with their Disney interpretation of a complex situation. My heart goes out to both sides, because the leadership is poor all around.
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Take a bow
 
St.Pauli support said:
Thanks for your personal background, it helps to understand your position.

On USA, I'd say they won't weaken Israel's position in the Middle East publicly, not an inch.
And in my perception the stream of terrible pictures and news has decreased, combined with the fact that humans get used to the same stimulus and then carry on with daily life. All has been said and repeated times and again. Fighting Hamas in Gaza City won't increase international pressure I think.

And Biden surely won't forget his 2024 campaign...
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There is a massive diplomatic effort going on right now by the Americans some might say they are panicking, they wanted to leave the Middle East to its own devices and concentrate on the threat of Chinese expansion in the pacific, they got the initial reaction badly wrong and they know it! They have emboldened Iran in the region and are disliked even more by the streets

They are going to have to put in some hard work to put this right, they are making the right noises but I doubt anyone trusts them, they don’t seem to get the irony of them supplying humanitarian aid to Gaza when it’s their arms and their green light that had caused the damage

By the way the 14 billion dollars in aid has not left the bank account yet

As for the future of Gaza who knows I doubt anyone does it’s criminals irresponsible to go in to a conflict with no plan for what happens next
 
Roachy said:
Which bit specifically?
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About IHL for a state's exemption from article 2(4) in the case of self-defence largely mirroring the domestic laws of the UN members (common law in the UK) that self-defence should only be exercised in relation to real and immediate danger and be proportional to the threat. Which I think was his point.
 
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