Rishi Sunak

Would be a bit stupid to call an election after the summer when he only has one policy - “stop the boats”.

The numbers for these will inevitably rocket again in the summer so they can’t hide behind their current “the numbers are down” shtick which is largely driven by seasonality and weather patterns.

Which is why I think there’s only really two options - May or December. And then it becomes a calculation of whether economic improvements offset the frustration of them dragging things out.

I think they have it backwards though. The longer they wait, the more homeowners drop off their fixed rate mortgages and have to face the reality of the impact of interest rates, the poorer the comfortable middle classes will feel. People are not going to feel richer in the scope of 2024, things don’t correct quickly enough.

Ergo, waiting could be even worse for them.

My money is therefore on December - given Tories seem to love self-harm.
 
Waiting until the second half of the year means after the local elections in May.
Almost the only reasons for hanging on seems to be (a) hope something shows up to help and (b) more vandalism.
 
MillionMilesAway said:
Waiting until the second half of the year means after the local elections in May.
Almost the only reasons for hanging on seems to be (a) hope something shows up to help and (b) more vandalism.
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I think b is the plan , he knows the game is up on everything else and will figure they can get back in five yrs time when labour are still trying to put right what has been fucked up by tories before they went
 
kaz7 said:
I think b is the plan , he knows the game is up on everything else and will figure they can get back in five yrs time when labour are still trying to put right what has been fucked up by tories before they went
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Or the party machine will figure that! He'll be gone by then.

It was mentioned this morning that in 1997, Labour had a 23% lead in January which was down to 13% by the May election. Anything that gets them down to that kind of level of deficit may be close to blocking an outright majority.

I do think that the pollsters don't really know what's going to happen. The 2019 Brexit/UKIP vote will decay and who knows how seriously Reform will affect the vote.
 
Tories MUST go. They've been fucking awful as a government. One of the worst we've had. Ever. Surely even die hard Tories must think that too.
 
SkyBlueFlux said:
...

I think they have it backwards though. The longer they wait, the more homeowners drop off their fixed rate mortgages and have to face the reality of the impact of interest rates, the poorer the comfortable middle classes will feel. People are not going to feel richer in the scope of 2024, things don’t correct quickly enough.

...
Click to expand...
But friendly press are reporting lower interest rates for mortgages - without saying that these rates will still be higher for people at end of their older fixed rate deals.
 
Not really a fan either of the main parties or the Lib Dems. Call me politically homeless if you will, or whatever. But surely this is it now. The last big YouGov poll from 6 weeks ago has the Tories on 22% - yeah the exit poll is the one worth waiting for but like, come on. Also wonder if them putting the election off for another 10 months is going to piss people off even more and send their numbers into the teens. It won't "finish the Tories off for good" because all it takes to bounce back in politics is time - just ask Scottish Labour who were dead and buried as recently as 2019 but will surely have the majority in Holyrood come this time next year. But god they need a rebrand and proper reorganisation. People don't vote on policies - not really. They vote on who looks the smartest and seems like the most sensible, the most in control. Right now it doesn't matter what Sunak does, he came in after people had already started on the "They don't know what they're bloody doin' at Number 10!" claims. Truss coming and going within six weeks was the final straw, I think, after everything that's happened since the pandemic. Fuck 'em. Not happy about the guy coming in either but the Tories have been in power for my entire adult life and the country has only stagnated since they were given the keys. Give someone else a go.
 
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