US Politics Thread

[Vic]

Brian Tyler Cohen sees some cause for optimism following the results of Iowa caucus.

Don't forget Trump got 97% in 2020 as sitting president (Reagan and Bush and Bush were unopposed). The 51% he got this time are mostly people who think he is the sitting president (because it's easier to think that than think you've voted for a loser).

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

Don't forget Trump got 97% in 2020 as sitting president (Reagan and Bush and Bush were unopposed). The 51% he got this time are mostly people who think he is the sitting president (because it's easier to think that than think you've voted for a loser).

I really don't think it's worth analysing these results. Trump will win the primary, that is a given ever since Ron DeSantis tanked.

From there on its all down to a year long court room drama. Can he really swerve jail ? He can't dodge and delay 4 criminal trials. At least 1 will conclude, maybe 2 or 3.

What do the GOP do if he's jailed?

Give it a couple of weeks/months and this result will be irrelevant.

 

[Gabriel]

I really don't think it's worth analysing these results. Trump will win the primary, that is a given ever since Ron DeSantis tanked.

From there on its all down to a year long court room drama. Can he really swerve jail ? He can't dodge and delay 4 criminal trials. At least 1 will conclude, maybe 2 or 3.

What do the GOP do if he's jailed?

Give it a couple of weeks/months and this result will be irrelevant.

There’s nothing in the Constitution to prevent him standing if convicted and, presumably, even if incarcerated; Eugene V. Debs ran for the presidency in 1920 from Atlanta Federal Penitentiary and received a tad over 3% of the vote. Even if convicted beforehand, Trump would likely appeal and could be back in the White House before that appeal is heard, at which point he could appoint a new Attorney General and make any charges disappear. Fascinating times.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

There’s nothing in the Constitution to prevent him standing if convicted and, presumably, even if incarcerated; Eugene V. Debs ran for the presidency in 1920 from Atlanta Federal Penitentiary and received a tad over 3% of the vote. Even if convicted beforehand, Trump would likely appeal and could be back in the White House before that appeal is heard, at which point he could appoint a new Attorney General and make any charges disappear. Fascinating times.

Agree - but can he really win an election if convicted and out pending appeal. And can he even get on the ballot if convicted in relation to Jan 6th?

I get that technically he could be sworn in as POTUS wile in jail. But I cant see the American people voting someone in where that is a highly likely outcome. Do the GOP step in at any part and say - no lets have someone else (i think that unlikely as it is a cross between a full on cult and a mob family).

Wild times ahead.

 

[Gabriel]

Agree - but can he really win an election if convicted and out pending appeal. And can he even get on the ballot if convicted in relation to Jan 6th?

I get that technically he could be sworn in as POTUS wile in jail. But I cant see the American people voting someone in where that is a highly likely outcome. Do the GOP step in at any part and say - no lets have someone else (i think that unlikely as it is a cross between a full on cult and a mob family).

Wild times ahead.

I place little faith in the Republican Party stepping in at this stage, especially since it has balked from doing so at every juncture; its grandees also know he is their return ticket to power. As for the American public, the people will simply vote for who is on the ticket, and that will be Biden and Trump, barring force majeure. To the courts, well, we cannot tell how they will decide, but we can be sure that Trump will play the painfully slow appeals process to his advantage. As things stand, I can see him repeating Grover Cleveland’s feat of being re-elected following an interim. However, given that we know he will be restricted to only serving one term, describing the times that lie ahead as ‘wild’ really might not do them justice.

 

[SkyBlueFlux]

There’s nothing in the Constitution to prevent him standing if convicted and, presumably, even if incarcerated; Eugene V. Debs ran for the presidency in 1920 from Atlanta Federal Penitentiary and received a tad over 3% of the vote. Even if convicted beforehand, Trump would likely appeal and could be back in the White House before that appeal is heard, at which point he could appoint a new Attorney General and make any charges disappear. Fascinating times.

Ironically, Debs had a far better argument for being subjected to the kind of political witch-hunt that Trump falsely believes he’s fighting.

Arrested for giving speeches during WWI stating his opposition to US involvement. His sentence was commuted by Harding once the war had ended.

 

[Gabriel]

Ironically, Debs had a far better argument for being subjected to the kind of political witch-hunt that Trump falsely believes he’s fighting.

Arrested for giving speeches during WWI stating his opposition to US involvement. His sentence was commuted by Harding once the war had ended.

There are other curious parallels. Debs was convicted based on the Espionage Act and Sedition Acts, which were ironically the same basis for the Justice Department when they went after Trump for his documents. Debs also saw his case go to the Supreme Court, so we wait in anticipation...
Wilson refused to commute Debs’ sentence and Harding only did so in the general pardon around Christmas 1921, long after the guns had fallen silent, well those in Europe.

 

[TinFoilHat]

I place little faith in the Republican Party stepping in at this stage, especially since it has balked from doing so at every juncture; its grandees also know he is their return ticket to power. As for the American public, the people will simply vote for who is on the ticket, and that will be Biden and Trump, barring force majeure. To the courts, well, we cannot tell how they will decide, but we can be sure that Trump will play the painfully slow appeals process to his advantage. As things stand, I can see him repeating Grover Cleveland’s feat of being re-elected following an interim. However, given that we know he will be restricted to only serving one term, describing the times that lie ahead as ‘wild’ really might not do them justice.

If they stepped in he'd run as an independent and the GOP would be wiped out as others in both legislatures would the Trump Patriots Party or whatever name he'd give it that would include his surname and sound good to his cult.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

 

[AliBobbyJ]

"The USA has never been a racist country."
Nikki Haley told us so today. Thank goodness for that.