US Politics Thread

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ChicagoBlue said:
The notion of norms will be considered both quaint and antiquated once the radical right wing agenda starts to unfold.

They’ve given you the playbook. With a Republican Senate, House and SCOTUS, America will wonder what hit it by 2028, and even the notion of a presidential election cycle might be a wistful musing by then!

www.project2025.org

Mandate for Leadership | A Product of The Heritage Foundation

This was a project of more than 100 organizations to prepare for a new conservative administration through policy, training, and personnel.
www.project2025.org www.project2025.org
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Project 2025 is seriously scary stuff. 1933 Germany stuff.

But I don’t think Trump will win, once the Dems start campaigning on economy, democracy and reproductive rights then everyone will chill out. I also think we’ve seen that phone polling (which calls landlines tends to favour GOP).

This is far more encouraging from last night.

 
TinFoilHat said:
The more I see Haley i see the kind of opponent Putin puts up against himself for an election.

She's carrying on under the pretence she will win the nomination.
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She is hoping that somewhere along the line, in one of these legal cases, he will turn public opinion or find himself in jail and she will be the nominee.

And Indian woman was always going to seem like a long shot in the current Republican Party, but with the MAGA base it almost seems impossible.

In a few short years Republicans have gone from “compassionate” conservatives to the Tea Party to the Trump MAGA Cult!

Yikes!
 
Gabriel said:
Undoubtedly. Her main problem, however, will likely be the lengths to which her financial backers are prepared to back her ‘hope’.
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Agreed. She seems to think she can stay in the race. Who knows?

It all seems inevitable and I fear for the country. And, I have become more and more shocked, stunned and ashamed by the politics of America.

NONE of this based well for the future. Not Trump running, nor Biden running against him, or even Biden winning.

One is too stoopid (intellectually) to be President and has already declared he intends to be a Dictator, while the other is so far past his prime as a candidate as to make it painful, even for someone who will definitely have to vote for him, to cast that ballot.

There is literally NOTHING to look forward to in this “race,” if you can call it that for the Septuagenarian and the Octogenarian in the contest.

Anyone see Gavin Newsom on Bill Maher this past week? One can only hope!

Please God, save us all.
 
ChicagoBlue said:
Agreed. She seems to think she can stay in the race. Who knows?

It all seems inevitable and I fear for the country. And, I have become more and more shocked, stunned and ashamed by the politics of America.

NONE of this based well for the future. Not Trump running, nor Biden running against him, or even Biden winning.

One is too stoopid (intellectually) to be President and has already declared he intends to be a Dictator, while the other is so far past his prime as a candidate as to make it painful, even for someone who will definitely have to vote for him, to cast that ballot.

There is literally NOTHING to look forward to in this “race,” if you can call it that for the Septuagenarian and the Octogenarian in the contest.

Anyone see Gavin Newsom on Bill Maher this past week? One can only hope!

Please God, save us all.
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It is certainly shaping up to be an uninspiring contest, though one not without intrigue. Alas, the intrigue comes mostly for all the wrong reasons. I’ve long accepted that both will lead their parties into November and that Trump’s legal distractions cannot be relied upon as the means to prevent him regaining power. In terms of the campaign, then, it remains to be seen whether Biden can make the ‘threat to democracy’ line stick, particularly if/when the cases against Trump come to no resolution. At that point, it will boil down to how confident Americans are based on Biden’s record and how apathetic Americans are when faced again with the same choice. Invoking a higher power might be the right call…
 
Gabriel said:
It is certainly shaping up to be an uninspiring contest, though one not without intrigue. Alas, the intrigue comes mostly for all the wrong reasons. I’ve long accepted that both will lead their parties into November and that Trump’s legal distractions cannot be relied upon as the means to prevent him regaining power. In terms of the campaign, then, it remains to be seen whether Biden can make the ‘threat to democracy’ line stick, particularly if/when the cases against Trump come to no resolution. At that point, it will boil down to how confident Americans are based on Biden’s record and how apathetic Americans are when faced again with the same choice. Invoking a higher power might be the right call…
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My concern is that Democrats are experts at cutting their noses off to spite their face and lack the pragmatism of Republicans.

The apathy of the current crop of young voters, and the feeling that the black vote will look at the inner cities and wonder if anything will ever get better for them, might be the few percentage points that tip the balance.

I can only hope that women realize what’s at stake for them and the working poor understand that Trump openly despises them, regardless of the BS that comes out of his pie hole!

I hope the next 10 months only serve to highlight just how crazy the orange gibbon really is and how dangerous he would be for America and the world.
 
ChicagoBlue said:
My concern is that Democrats are experts at cutting their noses off to spite their face and lack the pragmatism of Republicans.

The apathy of the current crop of young voters, and the feeling that the black vote will look at the inner cities and wonder if anything will ever get better for them, might be the few percentage points that tip the balance.

I can only hope that women realize what’s at stake for them and the working poor understand that Trump openly despises them, regardless of the BS that comes out of his pie hole!

I hope the next 10 months only serve to highlight just how crazy the orange gibbon really is and how dangerous he would be for America and the world.
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We've both mentioned apathy and that could be key. It will also be interesting to see what impact, if any, third-party candidates have, especially No Labels. An election of fine margins might see a party from the margin play an important role.

Looking further ahead, one does wonder what will happen to the Republicans if Biden wins again. Trump would be 82 in 2028, older than Biden is now, and there must come a point, surely, after successive defeats when an alternative in the party becomes viable. Trump would probably stand as an independent candidate in 2028, ala Roosevelt in 1912, but someone must come from within the GOP, or the Democrats could have Newsom in place and be set for 16 years in office.
 
ChicagoBlue said:
My concern is that Democrats are experts at cutting their noses off to spite their face and lack the pragmatism of Republicans.
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If it wasn’t for the fact that the US is so important for a) the world and b) mine and my client’s money I’d be inclined to say “well if you fucking idiots don’t vote and Trump gets in then you deserve it” (not YOU but the “apathetic nose cutting off sort) as it would be morbidly fascinating to see the authoritarian state rise and those idiots realise what they’d done.

As it is I don’t see any way Trump wins. The economy is better. Democracy is on the ballot. Reproductive rights are on the table and there’s no way Trump has more votes than in 2020 and we’ve had 4 more years of what we’re 14-17 year olds get a ballot slip.

As previously I believe the polls are off by a good 4-5 points. They can’t deal with modern voting patterns and demographics and they were wrong in 2018, 2020 and 2022.
 
SWP's back said:
If it wasn’t for the fact that the US is so important for a) the world and b) mine and my client’s money I’d be inclined to say “well if you fucking idiots don’t vote and Trump gets in then you deserve it” (not YOU but the “apathetic nose cutting off sort) as it would be morbidly fascinating to see the authoritarian state rise and those idiots realise what they’d done.

As it is I don’t see any way Trump wins. The economy is better. Democracy is on the ballot. Reproductive rights are on the table and there’s no way Trump has more votes than in 2020 and we’ve had 4 more years of what we’re 14-17 year olds get a ballot slip.

As previously I believe the polls are off by a good 4-5 points. They can’t deal with modern voting patterns and demographics and they were wrong in 2018, 2020 and 2022.
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Don't underestimate the MSM effect on apathetic voters. Turnout will play a huge role in the outcome of the election. A low turnout is historically good for the Republican candidate.
 
Trevor Morley's Tache said:
Don't underestimate the MSM effect on apathetic voters. Turnout will play a huge role in the outcome of the election. A low turnout is historically good for the Republican candidate.
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There will be zero excuse for apathy come November. I don’t think women who’ve been told what they can and can’t do with their bodies will be apathetic for a start.
 
SWP's back said:
There will be zero excuse for apathy come November. I don’t think women who’ve been told what they can and can’t do with their bodies will be apathetic for a start.
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I admire your optimism.

Maybe this is a step too far for him, but with this guy, you write him off at your peril. He always has a habit of coming up smelling of roses (metaphorically, of course).
 
SWP's back said:
As previously I believe the polls are off by a good 4-5 points. They can’t deal with modern voting patterns and demographics and they were wrong in 2018, 2020 and 2022.
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I thought the polls were generally more accurate in 2022, with certain polls (e.g. Suffolk University/USAToday and the Sienna/New York Times) much more accurate. Maybe I’m wrong.
 
MillionMilesAway said:
how do they select the 'independent' voters for this?
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It varies from state to state.

In New Hampshire, the caucus is run by the state as opposed to the Republican party. New Hampshire allows registered Republican voters, independents, and undeclared voters to vote in the Republican caucus.
 
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