The Conservative Party

shemnel said:
there seems to be rather a large pre-occupation with the decimation of the Conservative Party at the next Gen Election, without much consideration being given to where those votes are going.

There is a clear partial swap to Reform, and there should be some worry about what this means for UK policy in 2025 onwards.

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UKIP percentage still far too high.
 
Alan Harper's Tash said:
It’s more a party for the midlife crisis/fathers for justice type people that aren’t really politically active, but have populist views.

They'll always be around in the background, but should never be near power as most of their policies are destructive, rather than constructive.
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It’s a party for thick people. Let’s be honest. Thick people usually don’t have a brain developed enough for empathy so the policies are basically anti-empathy.

Vote for your right to be a **** , in a nutshell.
 
Didsbury Dave said:
It’s a party for thick people. Let’s be honest. Thick people usually don’t have a brain developed enough for empathy so the policies are basically anti-empathy.

Vote for your right to be a **** , in a nutshell.
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It's for patriots and people with that never say die bulldog spirit, you just wouldn't understand.
 
shemnel said:
there seems to be rather a large pre-occupation with the decimation of the Conservative Party at the next Gen Election, without much consideration being given to where those votes are going.

There is a clear partial swap to Reform, and there should be some worry about what this means for UK policy in 2025 onwards.

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FPTP means reform will never be a problem for anyone.

Their best case scenario is being UKIP 2.0 circa 2015, which is to say they had zero parliamentary presence but managed to influence the mainstream party they were associated with to change their agenda.

UKIP have won 1 election in their history, Reform are predicted to get 0 seats in the next election.

Creaming 10% of the vote off the Conservative side doesn’t make Reform a danger, it just guarantees a Labour landslide.
 
domalino said:
FPTP means reform will never be a problem for anyone.

Their best case scenario is being UKIP 2.0 circa 2015, which is to say they had zero parliamentary presence but managed to influence the mainstream party they were associated with to change their agenda.

UKIP have won 1 election in their history, Reform are predicted to get 0 seats in the next election.

Creaming 10% of the vote off the Conservative side doesn’t make Reform a danger, it just guarantees a Labour landslide.
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Please its Reform UK Ltd - Tice's company.
 
domalino said:
FPTP means reform will never be a problem for anyone.

Their best case scenario is being UKIP 2.0 circa 2015, which is to say they had zero parliamentary presence but managed to influence the mainstream party they were associated with to change their agenda.

UKIP have won 1 election in their history, Reform are predicted to get 0 seats in the next election.

Creaming 10% of the vote off the Conservative side doesn’t make Reform a danger, it just guarantees a Labour landslide.
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Post election night when they implode and factionalise one of the branches must adopt the name Blukip
 
seems that Bren4Bassetlaw was helped by a childcare provision due to start next week prior to his election win in 2019 - do they all think we are as brain dead as them

 
domalino said:
FPTP means reform will never be a problem for anyone.

Their best case scenario is being UKIP 2.0 circa 2015, which is to say they had zero parliamentary presence but managed to influence the mainstream party they were associated with to change their agenda.

UKIP have won 1 election in their history, Reform are predicted to get 0 seats in the next election.

Creaming 10% of the vote off the Conservative side doesn’t make Reform a danger, it just guarantees a Labour landslide.
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I think your second and fourth paragraphs are at slight odds with each other. I think they continue to drive the debate downwards.
 
shemnel said:
well i would tend to agree, it seems we are wandering to an inevitable conclusion, but i predict a further rise in Reform voters plus a slight rebound for Tory voters. I think Labour will contract a touch, tis the way with elections, things tighten up again once it comes to the actual vote. Get a free tenner for every 70 if you like!
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Did you miss the stat that "demographics" mean that every month they lose ½% of their voters?
 
shemnel said:
I think your second and fourth paragraphs are at slight odds with each other. I think they continue to drive the debate downwards.
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UKIP was able to drive the Tories right because the 2 main parties were so close in the polls that losing the ~10% of their voters to UKIP would guarantee the Tories would lose a general election.

Labour are predicted to have a 200 seat majority after the next GE. When your majority is that big, it doesn’t matter what a 10% splinter group says or does.

Besides, Reform isn’t eating Labours vote, they’re just going to split the tiny remaining Tory contingent as the old school conservatives move back towards the centre, like every party that loses an election, and the Reform nut jobs go even further right.
 
domalino said:
UKIP was able to drive the Tories right because the 2 main parties were so close in the polls that losing the ~10% of their voters to UKIP would guarantee the Tories would lose a general election.

Labour are predicted to have a 200 seat majority after the next GE. When your majority is that big, it doesn’t matter what a 10% splinter group says or does.

Besides, Reform isn’t eating Labours vote, they’re just going to split the tiny remaining Tory contingent as the old school conservatives move back towards the centre, like every party that loses an election, and the Reform nut jobs go even further right.
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Yes, I agree that a move to centre in 2025 makes quite a bit of sense, for the Tory party
 
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