It's Quiet 18 - Wanna ring the bell?

[Xhavenjoe]

Or not. We won't know the outcome of the allegations by the end of the January window so it won't have any impact on our spending now or in January

But its now August and we are guilty.
I've read it and heard it on several occasions.

 

[Ajm1985]

That’s mainly because for more than a decade the PL has been the source of ‘cascade’ funding across the European leagues.

That is, PL spending injected cash in to other clubs in other leagues to yet spend at other clubs in other leagues who spent that at other clubs in other leagues, and so on. As PL spending retracts, the cascade effect weakens considerably, as well, and we see far less spending outside of the PL (and in it, buying surplus PL players, which causes further retraction).

The Saudi spending spree partly made up the shortfall last season, but that well is slowly drying up, too, as players have a better understanding of what moving there means for their careers (and personal situations).

The other top five European leagues who have historically spent fairly large sums in the summer transfer windows are largely skint now, especially in France and Italy, and that has had a big impact on their spending over the last decade. Both Ligue 1 and Serie A are actually in pretty dire financial positions currently, with some drastic fixes being proposed to avoid potential collapse of many of the clubs in the coming years.

In some ways this is a return to a more sane market, given the TV money—the main inflator of transfer fees and wages, despite claims it was City—was never going to see exponential growth forever, but it is also a sign of two main factors:

1) the PL has partially broken the market with it’s dominance (and now passivity due to many factors, including PSR)
2) the market itself, particularly outside of the PL, is largely in a very, very precarious place after the Pandemic

The next decade will likely see a big shake up in the status quo across Europe as clubs try to restructure (often through sales/acquisitions) to become actually sustainable enterprises.

A lot of great & salient points here. One thing I disagree with is the potential effect of playing in the Saudi league on a player's career. There were 15 Saudi league players at the Euros, including Laporte. Ederson would have gone if a club matched our fee. I think the main reason it has slowed down is the Saudi clubs, via instruction, have had to rein in the spending on fees.

 

[ninjamonkey]

You can say that about all the top clubs, no-one's really spending much at all this summer.

This PSR bullshit here and high prices are scaring off teams not only here, but all over Europe too.

It's more to do with the fact there's been a euro's and Copa America this summer that ended just 3 weeks ago, it was always going to be quiet for most of the window due to that, it will be a busy fortnight.

 

[SebastianBlue]

A lot of great & salient points here. One thing I disagree with is the potential effect of playing in the Saudi league on a player's career. There were 15 Saudi league players at the Euros, including Laporte. Ederson would have gone if a club matched our fee. I think the main reason it has slowed down is the Saudi clubs, via instruction, have had to rein in the spending on fees.

I think it is a bit of both the Saudi League is pulling back on spending and players are less excited about joining the Saudi clubs for various reasons.

I actually don’t think Euro 2024 is a good barometer of impact on a player’s international selection prospects because it came fairly quickly on the back of most player’s moves to the Saudi league. And a lot of the players were bigger names later in their careers who were likely to get selected regardless, as they were talismans for their national sides or they were simply moneymakers on the marketing side.

The bigger test will be the upcoming World Cup, as that will have been after several years of the fairly younger players being in the league, where the standard is actually much lower than playing in Europe AND they will have to contend with the ‘out of sight, out of mind’ issue on the marketing side, and so it likely will have an impact on their international prospects.

But that is only one part of the impact on players’ careers. Beyond the personal side of things (cultural, familial, etc), there is the issue of the difficulty of getting a decent move back out of the Saudi league if they want to leave. Most of the players are put on significantly inflated wages, and Saudi clubs aren’t generally going to look to let players go at cut rate prices, either. So as the market begins to settle at a much lower relative spending level, that is going to make moves back to the top European leagues that much more tricky. And Saudi clubs are pulling back a bit on fees and wages being offered to new recruits, which means the money isn’t going to be as “life changing” as it has been early on over the coming years, which will eventual impact the relative quality of players they can attract.

Now some players (and their agents) won’t really care about that — they’ll want to take the big wage packets and then leave what comes later as a problem for their future selves.

But some—especially the bigger talents—will start to think about the moves more carefully before taking the plunge. That, coupled with the league general instructing clubs to tighten their belts, will see that source of ‘cascade spending’ in the broader market wane, as well.

 

[JewelZee]

"Maybe or maybe not, we will see. I'm really pleased with the squad I have, we will see. I'm set. We will see what happens in the market. We can continue to January in that way or maybe we will add some players."

Interesting Pep’s mentioned the January window. The charges might be having a significant impact on our business.

This squad as is cannot compete on all fronts. Defo not Prem and CL and I'm always optimistic/realistic. Not adding anyone after the departure of Alvarez and the injury to Bobb along with affirming that Phillips will never provide a viable option is just plain weird. Something is amiss. All the happy clappers can keep on clapping. Please don't anyone start reciting what we've accomplished to date because that is completely irrelevant. We are talking about 2024-25 in ISOLATION...there is no good reason why a squad with the world class players we have and the manager we have plus the resources at our disposal would suddenly start acting like a club that's skint...I don't claim to know the answer but I do know something is definitely wrong. The way we are moving is fucking bizarre in light of how we normally operate. We don't rely on bedding in 4 or 5 youngsters at one time in a squad of 19 or 20 field players. Anyone saying otherwise is being disingenuous...if we make some impactful moves in the next 2 weeks I'll be the first to put my hand up. But if we don't this will be a long season by our standards. A self-inflicted difficult one...

 

[JewelZee]

It's more to do with the fact there's been a euro's and Copa America this summer that ended just 3 weeks ago, it was always going to be quiet for most of the window due to that, it will be a busy fortnight.

One can only hope...

 

[vincent]

You can say that about all the top clubs, no-one's really spending much at all this summer.

This PSR bullshit here and high prices are scaring off teams not only here, but all over Europe too.

Apart from United… and we know why.

 

[applejuice]

This squad as is cannot compete on all fronts. Defo not Prem and CL and I'm always optimistic/realistic. Not adding anyone after the departure of Alvarez and the injury to Bobb along with affirming that Phillips will never provide a viable option is just plain weird. Something is amiss. ..

The club must have already done the squad planning before heading to US. It might sound sudden to some here because the English media did not report much about Argentina during the Euro but the Spanish speaking media had been talking about potential Alvarez move for quite a while. I think that the club had already prepared to lose him when they gave the greenlight to Olympic. So the club must have already get a plan for it (some striker incoming or a plan of false 9).

And for Bobb I have very high hope for him but realistically I guess the original squad plan was Bernado as main RW option and Savio as back up before the US tour. Savio had played as a regular starter for a club finished top 4 in La Liga. And Bobb will return after all. The injury actually does not affect the game time planning that much. We will use this 3 months to bed in Savio.

I still have doubt about our central midfield though. The issue has not been properly addressed ever since Gundo left.

 

[Mad 4 It]

This squad as is cannot compete on all fronts. Defo not Prem and CL and I'm always optimistic/realistic. Not adding anyone after the departure of Alvarez and the injury to Bobb along with affirming that Phillips will never provide a viable option is just plain weird. Something is amiss. All the happy clappers can keep on clapping. Please don't anyone start reciting what we've accomplished to date because that is completely irrelevant. We are talking about 2024-25 in ISOLATION...there is no good reason why a squad with the world class players we have and the manager we have plus the resources at our disposal would suddenly start acting like a club that's skint...I don't claim to know the answer but I do know something is definitely wrong. The way we are moving is fucking bizarre in light of how we normally operate. We don't rely on bedding in 4 or 5 youngsters at one time in a squad of 19 or 20 field players. Anyone saying otherwise is being disingenuous...if we make some impactful moves in the next 2 weeks I'll be the first to put my hand up. But if we don't this will be a long season by our standards. A self-inflicted difficult one...

Risk management, accept the risk and buy knew shiny toys or manage the risk and wait until we know what kangaroo court decides is our fate

 

[JewelZee]

The club must have already done the squad planning before heading to US. It might sound sudden to some here because the English media did not report much about Argentina during the Euro but the Spanish speaking media had been talking about potential Alvarez move for quite a while. I think that the club had already prepared to lose him when they gave the greenlight to Olympic. So the club must have already get a plan for it (some striker incoming or a plan of false 9).

And for Bobb I have very high hope for him but realistically I guess the original squad plan was Bernado as main RW option and Savio as back up before the US tour. Savio had played as a regular started for a club finished top 4 in La Liga. And Bobb will return after all.

I still have doubt about our central midfield though. The issue has not been properly addressed ever since Gundo left.

So bottom line, IYO, do we have enough to compete on all fronts at our established standard with the squad as is. I say no and I'm sticking with that opinion...

 

[RayCTID]

Pep very rarely rotates it would be pointless buying squad fillers

 

[applejuice]

So bottom line, IYO, do we have enough to compete on all fronts at our established standard with the squad as is. I say no and I'm sticking with that opinion...

Yes and no.

On the attacking side I think it is a yes. will be nice to add a seasoned old striker as a back up. But we can still find one during January window. So i am not worried too much about it.

On the defending side I think it is a no. We have enough bodies but I always feel that we can improve. We have many center backs but only one aging fullback. Several midfield options but none of them can really fill a back up 6 role. Ideally I would trade some out and bring in someone who fits the role better. But it is a tough call.

 

[JewelZee]

Risk management, accept the risk and buy knew shiny toys or manage the risk and wait until we know what kangaroo court decides is our fate

Who said anything about shiny toys? There is a such a thing as a viable professional who can do a job for us. Someone like a Locatelli would be a massive upgrade over Nico O'Reilly as an example. Someone who would not cost us a fortune and doesn't need to start all the time. Someone who can provide quality depth, the sort we've always had.

So are you saying we aren't confident that we have irrefutable evidence? We are certainly not operating in what one would consider SOP for us...

 

[RayCTID]

The thing is Locatelli wouid play the same amount of games as O'Reilly and would cost us a lot of money in the process. The smart money is to stick with the EDS player.

 

[blueparrot]

This squad as is cannot compete on all fronts. Defo not Prem and CL and I'm always optimistic/realistic. Not adding anyone after the departure of Alvarez and the injury to Bobb along with affirming that Phillips will never provide a viable option is just plain weird. Something is amiss. All the happy clappers can keep on clapping. Please don't anyone start reciting what we've accomplished to date because that is completely irrelevant. We are talking about 2024-25 in ISOLATION...there is no good reason why a squad with the world class players we have and the manager we have plus the resources at our disposal would suddenly start acting like a club that's skint...I don't claim to know the answer but I do know something is definitely wrong. The way we are moving is fucking bizarre in light of how we normally operate. We don't rely on bedding in 4 or 5 youngsters at one time in a squad of 19 or 20 field players. Anyone saying otherwise is being disingenuous...if we make some impactful moves in the next 2 weeks I'll be the first to put my hand up. But if we don't this will be a long season by our standards. A self-inflicted difficult one...

Its not in isolation, the squad we ended last season with is the level we are. IMO the squad today is stronger than the squad that started last season. Will we win the league , don't know but we will compete and most likely finish top 2 and win-a cup

 

[Ajm1985]

I think it is a bit of both the Saudi League is pulling back on spending and players are less excited about joining the Saudi clubs for various reasons.

I actually don’t think Euro 2024 is a good barometer of impact on a player’s international selection prospects because it came fairly quickly on the back of most player’s moves to the Saudi league. And a lot of the players were bigger names later in their careers who were likely to get selected regardless, as they were talismans for their national sides or they were simply moneymakers on the marketing side.

The bigger test will be the upcoming World Cup, as that will have been after several years of the fairly younger players being in the league, where the standard is actually much lower than playing in Europe AND they will have to contend with the ‘out of sight, out of mind’ issue on the marketing side, and so it likely will have an impact on their international prospects.

But that is only one part of the impact on players’ careers. Beyond the personal side of things (cultural, familial, etc), there is the issue of the difficulty of getting a decent move back out of the Saudi league if they want to leave. Most of the players are put on significantly inflated wages, and Saudi clubs aren’t generally going to look to let players go at cut rate prices, either. So as the market begins to settle at a much lower relative spending level, that is going to make moves back to the top European leagues that much more tricky. And Saudi clubs are pulling back a bit on fees and wages being offered to new recruits, which means the money isn’t going to be as “life changing” as it has been early on over the coming years, which will eventual impact the relative quality of players they can attract.

Now some players (and their agents) won’t really care about that — they’ll want to take the big wage packets and then leave what comes later as a problem for their future selves.

But some—especially the bigger talents—will start to think about the moves more carefully before taking the plunge. That, coupled with the league general instructing clubs to tighten their belts, will see that source of ‘cascade spending’ in the broader market wane, as well.

I'm not sure I fully agree but, like you said, the World Cup will be a good indicator.

 

[Blue tiger]

Pep very rarely rotates it would be pointless buying squad fillers

Alvarez needs replacing though, he played a lot of minutes last season and scored a good few goals, he's no Kalvin Phillips or Nunes who hardly played. One of the lads who would likely have eased the burden is now out for 3 to 4 months too. Your also asking alot of a young lad in Savinho to come in and be a instant hit too. I'm not saying its all doom and gloom and the sky is falling, but when you lose a worl cup winning CF who has scored some big goals he needs replacing. In the last 2 seasons we've lost Gundo, mahrez and now Alvarez, that's a lot of goals a season to lose. Doku has shown promising moments but his end product is hit and miss, Grealish lovely technical footballer but his goals and assists are hardly earth shattering. I think Alvarez is going to be a bigger miss than people think.

 

[Blue tiger]

Its not in isolation, the squad we ended last season with is the level we are. IMO the squad today is stronger than the squad that started last season. Will we win the league , don't know but we will compete and most likely finish top 2 and win-a cup

I come in peace and in now way trying to wind you up, I'm just wondering in what way we are stronger in your opinion? I just don't see it myself. We've lost a world cup winning striker and replaced him with a winger whose never played in the league and could be either good or bad. We've not addressed the midfield problem either and KDB is another year older. I genuinely love your optimism, I'm just struggling to see how we are stronger.

 

[applejuice]

Alvarez needs replacing though, he played a lot of minutes last season and scored a good few goals, he's no Kalvin Phillips or Nunes who hardly played. One of the lads who would likely have eased the burden is now out for 3 to 4 months too. Your also asking alot of a young lad in Savinho to come in and be a instant hit too. I'm not saying its all doom and gloom and the sky is falling, but when you lose a worl cup winning CF who has scored some big goals he needs replacing. In the last 2 seasons we've lost Gundo, mahrez and now Alvarez, that's a lot of goals a season to lose. Doku has shown promising moments but his end product is hit and miss, Grealish lovely technical footballer but his goals and assists are hardly earth shattering. I think Alvarez is going to be a bigger miss than people think.

Alvarez G/A was high when he played behind Halaand or as the striker. His numbers dropped once Foden moved behind Halaand and KDB returned. And we produced a lot goals when Alvarez was sidelined at the later stage of last season.

The spot behind Halaand is a honey spot. Even James got a good number after he had a run of playing there in the preseason. No disrespect to James but u don't need to be a WC winner to get numbers there.

 

[Semper aggressus]

Risk management, accept the risk and buy knew shiny toys or manage the risk and wait until we know what kangaroo court decides is our fate

I can’t believe the club is waiting to hear the results of the PL charges before spending, because we have come out and said unequivocally that we believe we are not guilty, and have a strong case to prove that. So why act like we’re worried we’ll be found guilty?

Even if that were the case, 1) we’d therefore challenge it, and 2) better to stockpile players now if anyone at the club actually thought there was a risk we’d be stopped from signing anyone in the near future.

It doesn’t make sense. The only conclusion I can draw is that there is no-one available that Pep thinks could genuinely improve the team. Whether we as fans agree or not (and I don’t, but then I love big name signings) is irrelevant.