US Presidential Election, Nov 5th 2024

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I really hope so - but the betting on Betfair has been shortening for Trump during the morning. 1.61 now for Trump and 2.6 for Harris - that is a big margin in a 2-horse race

Others have said that the betting is skewed - but money is clearly going on Trump and people don't normally actively throw money away

I wish I had enough confidence in what people say - could make good profit on Harris (if she wins)
People in the UK do especially when the average UK better hasn’t the faintest fucking clue about the impact of Dobbs etc.
 
He was talking, as I understand it, from personal experience of how his family members have fared. Not sure he cares how well the national economy is doing if he feels his family is worse off. Not sure I would either.
I know how much you love listening to other’s views but he’s more than capable of explaining his own views and of course how Obama was so shit and how Trump was so great because no empirical metrics agree with that view.
 
I wonder about Americans when they want to elect a complete con-man like Donald Trump.

They are obsessed with their veterans in the USA they get priority and discount for everything, yet Trump managed to dodge any active service what so ever. They just seem to ignore his faults and stupidity and will vote for him anyway.

I hope his finger is no where near the nuclear trigger.
 
I happen to LIKE the NFL, thank you very much!

Regardless...while there's definitely the possibility it'll take a couple days to know the winner, it's also possible one candidate outperforms their polls and we know in shorter order than some think.

I think this has been an especially difficult year for pollsters here in the US so who knows if the results will actually be as close as they say.

I too am afraid of violence today and in the days to come. Hoping that does not happen.
Florida is an early count. I think Harris may nick it and thus be assured of winning, all other things being equal.
 
Can't see Trump being well enough to come back in four years, so hopefully this is the end of it.

He's already losing it imo. Would be a bit embarrassing to watch him have to be in office while very obviously battling the beginning stages of dementia. Joe Biden being so far down the senile path took a bit of attention off how much sharpness Trump has lost. You watch debates from 2016 and he's still fast, witty, educated, and, fucking hell, to his credit, he discusses actual policy as well. Everything since has been a tired retread of the same old act but with all the flashing lights dimmed or turned off. Increasingly paranoid and desperate, another over-75 US politician who can barely remember where the toilet is, never mind remembering the nuclear codes.
Beginning stages of dementia is like describing the Quarter Finals of the FA Cup as an early round.
 
I know how much you love listening to other’s views but he’s more than capable of explaining his own views and of course how Obama was so shit and how Trump was so great because no empirical metrics agree with that view.
Yeah but he did his own research. Just like his uncle cletus who knows the earth its flat cos when you look at the horizon its flat. You can't argue with your own research or what uncle cletus gone say.
 
I know how much you love listening to other’s views but he’s more than capable of explaining his own views and of course how Obama was so shit and how Trump was so great because no empirical metrics agree with that view.

I just don't ridicule people for what they say are their personal experiences.

I still can't get my head around why just less than 50% of the voting public will choose Trump. It makes no sense to me but, yes, I am willing to listen because it's going to happen and understanding it will help explain what happens in the next four years.
 
Florida is an early count. I think Harris may nick it and thus be assured of winning, all other things being equal.
I don't see this happening but I hope you're right. The odds of her winning Florida are low but not nil.

I really think the polls are underestimating Harris due to herding but Florida has turned quite red due to a poorly-run state Democratic Party, lots of Republican voters moving into the state, and the GOP equating Democrats to far-left Latin American dictators like Castro and Chavez (which is absurd but enough people of Hispanic descent in FL believe it)

What I hope happens more realistically is that she runs ahead of her polls in NC and GA. That would likely give her the election.
 
I just don't ridicule people for what they say are their personal experiences.

I still can't get my head around why just less than 50% of the voting public will choose Trump. It makes no sense to me but, yes, I am willing to listen because it's going to happen and understanding it will help explain what happens in the next four years.
Surely this is the way forward trying to understand both sides rather then going immediately on the offensive and insulting someone purely because they hold an opposing view. America continues to be more and more polarised and yet you constantly see people getting into arguments and fights rather then discussing the topic like adults.
 
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It’s concerning Trump’s motivations for running for president when yesterday he was snarling into the camera ‘I’ve been waiting four years for this’. It was almost despot like, if he gets the nod what will he spend the next four years doing? Getting back at everyone who he thinks fucked him over last time or actually running a country?
His last presidency was chaotic. It would be worse this time, if he won.
 
People in the UK do especially when the average UK better hasn’t the faintest fucking clue about the impact of Dobbs etc.
Well - I will just have to accept your confidence and hope it is justified

I'm not going to risk any money - but the outcome of this election is of massive importance to everyone. I despair that the world could be on the brink of 4 more years of Trump
 
Does the bet still payout if Trump takes the election decision to court?
Betfair wasn't settled until January in the last election. I'm tempted to put a bet on Harris who is currently drifting like a barge again and nearly 7/4. The money if she wins will be tied up though for 6 or 7 weeks. Still worth it I guess.
 
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