Russian invasion of Ukraine

cleavers said:
There's been a "ceasfire" in the Black Sea, since Ukraine sank some ships, and they all scuttled home to port, where they were still sinking periodically. It's not actually a ceasefire, they just don't want any more ships sinking, as they can't be replaced other than building new ones.

Basically they lost a sea war, to a nation with no real ships, just some clever tech, and long range missiles.

Whatever the agreement it won't stop the russians launching glide bombe from in the air, from well behind the frontline.
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The tech has moved on since they last got defeated so i hope they do something to break the cease fire so the Ukranians can send a few more ships to the bottom..
 
SiMCFC said:
Now the conditions start to come out... want to be reconnected to swift banking etc, tell them to fuck off
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For what it’s worth, SWIFT is based in Brussels as they didn’t want to be seen as part of the New York or London financial hubs.

No idea if that will make a difference though.
 
Yigal Levin, military expert:

Russians note that the new agreements between the U.S. and Russia on Black Sea shipping and the export of Russian agricultural products will take effect after sanctions are lifted from Rosselkhozbank and other banks.Apparently, the U.S. will help restore Russia’s access to global export markets.The situation is precedent, but it still follows the strategic logic of the United States.What matters to the Americans is to give Russia access to “oxygen” again — to gradually lift sanctions — and now the precedent has been set.The next move, of course, belongs to Ukraine and Europe.I can fully imagine that Kyiv may have agreed to give up a certain domain — the Black Sea, where it had seen significant success — reasoning that continued American aid (and contracts) was more important.It’s not for me — and certainly not for Facebook or Telegram communities — to judge.Without knowing all the inputs, we simply cannot understand what the real choices were.Maybe Kyiv chose a bad option, but the alternative could have been even worse.As I’ve said many times, in a war of this scale, it always comes down to a choice between bad and very bad.There is no third option (or rather, there is — not to go to war at all, but it was Moscow that started this war, not Kyiv, so in that sense, Ukraine is beyond reproach).One thing deserves special mention: the Ukrainian determination to bring their children back from Russia commands deep respect.And it’s truly horrifying that these children have become part of a bargaining process — as if they were sacks of potatoes.If only for that alone, Russia deserves to be cursed for generations to come.At the very least.
 
cleavers said:
What do you think europe could do to stop trump/US talking to putin/russia ? zero, zilch, nada.

I had hoped something positive might come from it all, but it looks highly unlikely now, especially with lavrov saying the US should "demand" that ukraine agree to anything they want.
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Not stop discussions but allowing Trump and Putin to simply divvy up the spoils is shameful. Surely, a combined Europe could garner a ceasefire without raping Ukraine
 
mosssideblue said:
Not stop discussions but allowing Trump and Putin to simply divvy up the spoils is shameful. Surely, a combined Europe could garner a ceasefire without raping Ukraine
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Not really what I asked, Europe can say whatever it wants, but it can't stop these talks between US/russia, they're actually nothing to do with Europe, it's not invited, and even Ukraine seems to have engaged with them to some degree.

At this point, it's all agreement conditional on something else, so it's nothing at all for me, nothing has changed, and the russian briefing is, it won't until the world gives us what we want, Europe can have some say there hopefully, if it it holds it's nerve, there is no "ceasefire".
 
cleavers said:
Not really what I asked, Europe can say whatever it wants, but it can't stop these talks between US/russia, they're actually nothing to do with Europe, it's not invited, and even Ukraine seems to have engaged with them to some degree.

At this point, it's all agreement conditional on something else, so it's nothing at all for me, nothing has changed, and the russian briefing is, it won't until the world gives us what we want, Europe can have some say there hopefully, if it it holds it's nerve, there is no "ceasefire".
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We have our wires crossed as wasn't suggesting Europe could stop US/Russia discussions, but watching both parties feather each others nest at the expense of Ukraine is shameful
 
cleavers said:
Not really what I asked, Europe can say whatever it wants, but it can't stop these talks between US/russia, they're actually nothing to do with Europe, it's not invited, and even Ukraine seems to have engaged with them to some degree.

At this point, it's all agreement conditional on something else, so it's nothing at all for me, nothing has changed, and the russian briefing is, it won't until the world gives us what we want, Europe can have some say there hopefully, if it it holds it's nerve, there is no "ceasefire".
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Agreed but Ukraine is engaged with the talks because without their agreement there is no ceasefire. The US cannot impose a ceasefire, so they need to accommodate Ukrainian demands as much as they do Russian demands (albeit they may not place equal importance on each sides demands). The Black Sea is an obvious one as both sides need the trade routes. No attacks on energy infrastructure is also a need as both sides can hurt each other.

Lifting sanctions is not a straightforward process and I imagine there will be caveats and Europe is free to accommodate or reject sanction relief as it sees fit in line with its own security concerns. Europe may take its cue from Ukraine on this point. I don’t really see how sanction relief fits in with a ceasefire given by its nature a ceasefire is a temporary pause in fighting, it’s not an end to the fighting or a sustainable peace treaty.
 
Zellenskyy said:
How Russia behaves in the coming days will reveal a lot—if not everything. If there are air raid alerts again, if there is renewed military activity in the Black Sea, if Russian manipulations and threats continue—then new measures will need to be taken, specifically against Moscow.Diplomacy must work.
And from the Ukrainian side, we are doing everything to make that happen.I thank everyone who is helping. I am grateful to the United States for the constructive and effective work of our teams.Now, results are needed from Russia. We do not trust them.
And frankly—the world doesn’t trust Russia. And they must prove that they are truly ready to end the war—ready to stop lying to the world, and to America
 
Kirkstall Blue said:
Zellenskyy said:
How Russia behaves in the coming days will reveal a lot—if not everything. If there are air raid alerts again, if there is renewed military activity in the Black Sea, if Russian manipulations and threats continue—then new measures will need to be taken, specifically against Moscow.Diplomacy must work.
And from the Ukrainian side, we are doing everything to make that happen.I thank everyone who is helping. I am grateful to the United States for the constructive and effective work of our teams.Now, results are needed from Russia. We do not trust them.
And frankly—the world doesn’t trust Russia. And they must prove that they are truly ready to end the war—ready to stop lying to the world, and to America
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That last para is a proper slap right in putin's face and Zelenskyy
well knows it's unacceptable for putin and will not happen.

Good news that UKR are fighting hard for every inch of soil and every day as well on the time line, waiting for Europe to ramp up...
 
BlueAnorak said:
Guess what?
Russia has backed out of the ceasefire unless Agricultural payment sanctions are withdrawn.
Trust Ruzzia?
Give over.
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It wasn't "backed out" it was a condition, so nothing actually agreed by russia.

It's bollocks anyway their ships haven;t ventured to sea for months, they just launch glide bombs from the air above the Black Sea, and will continue to do so regardless.
 
cleavers said:
What do you think europe could do to stop trump/US talking to putin/russia ? zero, zilch, nada.

I had hoped something positive might come from it all, but it looks highly unlikely now, especially with lavrov saying the US should "demand" that ukraine agree to anything they want.
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No we couldn’t stop him talking to Russia but we offered him a state visit, we have just accepted all Trump and Vance insults and lies without an official response.


Generally, the public assessment [is] that Russia has the battlefield advantage, is grinding forward slowly.However, I want to say that with regard to the Ukrainian resistance, the Ukrainian people and the Ukrainian military have been underestimated for a period of several years now.
And ultimately, from my reflections in observing, from an intelligence standpoint, I'm convinced that they will fight with their bare hands if they have to, if they don't have terms that are acceptable to an enduring peace.
 
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