The Top Five Race 2024-25 (poll added)

Will we make the top 5?

  • Total voters
    1,364
  • Poll closed .
BerkshireBlue said:
should be aiming for 70, anything else is on dodgy ground given the fixtures
Click to expand...

With our GD, if we get 65 the others likely need 66.

If we do that, then it means three of the following all have to happen to knock us out of the CL places:
  • Villa winning 3 from 4 - they might do that at a push but would mean reigniting their best form of the season
  • Chelsea winning 3 from 5 - looks incredibly difficult, and if they do, it may mean beating Newcastle
  • Forest winning 2 from 5 - probably the most doable but not impossible they'll mess that up
  • Newcastle winning 2 and drawing 1 from 5 - they play Arsenal, Chelsea and Brighton. Also very possible they mess that up.
One of those will happen, two might happen. The odds three of them all finding a vein of form and not messing up. Can't see it, personally. These teams are just not consistent enough under pressure. That's why they are occupying 4th-7th.

Plus, I've been saying 65 points for something like a month now, so I'm not gonna change now :)
 
Chelsea forest and Newcastle still have a game in hand so it is a massive win for us tonight but still have to win 3 more maybe 7 points might do it but think 3 wins we need
 
jimharri said:
View attachment 153738

Assuming Bournemouth are out of the equation now....

Chelsea can get to 72 pts, Newcastle to 74 and Villa to 69.

Chelsea's remaining games...
Everton H
Liverpool H
Newcastle A
Rags H
Forest A


Villa's remaining games...
Fulham H
Bournemouth A
Spurs H
Rags A

Newcastle's remaining games...
Ipswich H
Brighton A
Chelsea H
Arsenal A
Everton H
Click to expand...
Chelsea and Newcastle can't get those points Jim because they have to play each other, so at least one of them is dropping points.
 
SkyBlueFlux said:
With our GD, if we get 65 the others likely need 66.

If we do that, then it means three of the following all have to happen to knock us out of the CL places:
  • Villa winning 3 from 4 - they might do that at a push but would mean reigniting their best form of the season
  • Chelsea winning 3 from 5 - looks incredibly difficult, and if they do, it may mean beating Newcastle
  • Forest winning 2 from 5 - probably the most doable but not impossible they'll mess that up
  • Newcastle winning 2 and drawing 1 from 5 - they play Arsenal, Chelsea and Brighton. Also very possible they mess that up.
One of those will happen, two might happen. The odds three of them all finding a vein of form and not messing up. Can't see it, personally. These teams are just not consistent enough under pressure. That's why they are occupying 4th-7th.

Plus, I've been saying 65 points for something like a month now, so I'm not gonna change now :)
Click to expand...
have you seen their fixtures? I can see Villa easily winning all their remaining games, Chelsea easily winning 3 from 5, Forest easily winning all three games and Newcastle easily winning 2 and drawing one. 69 points is easy enough for least 3 of these teams so 70 points is the target.
 
SkyBlueFlux said:
Well, that makes life a hell of a lot easier. We didn't need to win it, but we did.

Chances of qualifying up from 87% to 95%.

I'll say it again - 65 points.

A win. A draw. Maybe two. That's all we need.
Click to expand...
I'm a pessimist. Therefore win our next three (Wolves, Southampton and Bournemouth), and that should be enough to go to Fulham on the final day not needing anything. That'd put us on 70 pts. Chelsea can get to 72, but that's unlikely, given their run in. And Villa can only get to 69.
 
jimharri said:
I'm a pessimist. Therefore win our next three (Wolves, Southampton and Bournemouth), and that should be enough to go to Fulham on the final day not needing anything. That'd put us on 70 pts. Chelsea can get to 72, but that's unlikely, given their run in. And Villa can only get to 69.
Click to expand...
th.jpg
 
Damanino said:
have a feeling Moyes is gonna upset Maresca and Chelsea on Saturday, dont forget Chelsea messed up their home game vs Ipswich very recently and that two points is huge now if you look at the table.
Everton is much better side and harder too than Ipswich. if they dig deep and sit deep they can frustrate Chelsea and get something from set pieces.

Barcodes likely not messing up vs Ipswich at home unless pressure gets to them.
Click to expand...
They even did the same thing to Forest.
 
The Stockport Iniesta said:
Chelsea and Newcastle can't get those points Jim because they have to play each other, so at least one of them is dropping points.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I do realise that. Both can't. But one of them can. It ain't going to be Chelsea though. Not looking at their run in. They'll do well to win 3 of those 5 games. Also, I'm pretty much taking it for granted that Newcastle will likely get a CL spot. Which means the last spot will be between us, Chelsea and Villa.
 
jimharri said:
View attachment 153738

Assuming Bournemouth are out of the equation now....

Chelsea can get to 72 pts, Newcastle to 74 and Villa to 69.

Chelsea's remaining games...
Everton H
Liverpool H
Newcastle A
Rags H
Forest A


Villa's remaining games...
Fulham H
Bournemouth A
Spurs H
Rags A

Newcastle's remaining games...
Ipswich H
Brighton A
Chelsea H
Arsenal A
Everton H
Click to expand...
I,d of added Arsenals games, wouldn't surprise me if they crumble and we sneak 2nd, unlikely, maybe, but nothing would surprise me these days.
 
jimharri said:
Yeah, I do realise that. Both can't. But one of them can. It ain't going to be Chelsea though. Not looking at their run in. They'll do well to win 3 of those 5 games. Also, I'm pretty much taking it for granted that Newcastle will likely get a CL spot. Which means the last spot will be between us, Chelsea and Villa.
Click to expand...
I think the top 5 as it stands will finish top 5, unless Chelsea can turn Newcastle and Forest over away, tbh there's more chance of me having a go on Margot Robbie tonight than that happening.
 
havefaith said:
I,d of added Arsenals games, wouldn't surprise me if they crumble and we sneak 2nd, unlikely, maybe, but nothing would surprise me these days.
Click to expand...
Can't see it, to be honest. But, being the bloody decent chap that I am....

Arsenal's remaining games...
Palace H
Bournemouth H
Liverpool A
Newcastle H
Southampton A


We can get to 73 pts, so Arsenal would have to lose 3 of those 5 for us to pip them for 2nd. Hmm.
 
BerkshireBlue said:
have you seen their fixtures? I can see Villa easily winning all their remaining games, Chelsea easily winning 3 from 5, Forest easily winning all three games and Newcastle easily winning 2 and drawing one. 69 points is easy enough for least 3 of these teams so 70 points is the target.
Click to expand...

Time will tell. I’m not saying they couldn’t easily do it individually, or that it’s even impossible for them all to do it. I’m just saying that based on the past form of these teams it would be weird for them to all suddenly hit that kind of form against tough opponents in the last 5 games of the season. Some of these lot haven’t been able to win more than half their games all season and now we are caught in the illusion of thinking they all will when it matters.

Of course it feels like we need more security now but I think when we look back we’ll see “oh that wasn’t as hard as we thought it was going to be because X and Y totally bottled it”.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top