The Top Five Race 2024-25 (poll added)

[.db.]

The games in hand:

Newcastle have Ipswich at home this afternoon
Forest have Brentford at home on Thursday

 

[KS55]

City will ideally have to win every game.

I am not buying this hope towards Chelsea's fixture list.

They will playing a Liverpool team who will have been on the piss for a week at home next week, a United team that doesn't care about the league anymore and a Forest team who in my opinion will have it sewn up by the final day.

Only Newcastle away is the standout banana skin for me for Chelsea.

71 points will be needed meaning City can only afford 1 draw.

I tend to agree. Chelsea and Villa are still dangers. Wolves have improved enormously, so that will be a hard fight.

 

[Coatigan]

If Newcastle and Forest both win there games in hand we will be back down to 5th.

Until the next round of games. Or the round after. At one point a couple of the trams competing playbeach other, so ut is impossible for all to keep winning all their games. Apart from us. And Villa.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Until the next round of games. Or the round after. At one point a couple of the trams competing playbeach other, so ut is impossible for all to keep winning all their games. Apart from us. And Villa.

That assumes we will win all our remaining games? I'm not so sure. This could easily go down to the last day and Fulham away won't be easy. To be honest the permeatations are messing with my head.

 

[Coatigan]

That assumes we will win all our remaining games? I'm not so sure. This could easily go down to the last day and Fulham away won't be easy. To be honest the permeatations are messing with my head.

Yea I wasn't assuming, just pointing out that we Can win all our remaining games, but not all other teams can.

If we are 5th by the end of this weekend, not really the end if anything. If we stay 3rd, not really the end either. We can still finish as low as 9th, or as high as 2nd.

 

[marco]

If Newcastle and Forest both win there games in hand we will be back down to 5th.

realy dosnt matter if we finnish 3rd or 5th TBH, its still well in our favor as we have won the two games most of us would have had us down to at least lost one of those and its now left us with 4 games we should win on paper

 

[SkyBlueFlux]

City will ideally have to win every game.

I am not buying this hope towards Chelsea's fixture list.

They will playing a Liverpool team who will have been on the piss for a week at home next week, a United team that doesn't care about the league anymore and a Forest team who in my opinion will have it sewn up by the final day.

Only Newcastle away is the standout banana skin for me for Chelsea.

71 points will be needed meaning City can only afford 1 draw.

The scenario you're suggesting is crazy to the point where it really pushes the boundary of possibility. The whole scenario could even end up being completely mathematically impossible by 6pm if Newcastle don't beat Ipswich.

For a start - if 71 is the target, Villa are already out of it. It would also require the exact combination of:
Chelsea winning all four matches
Newcastle winning all matches except losing to Chelsea
Forest winning all matches except losing to Chelsea
For Arsenal to then not get dragged into it, they would also have to win their other two matches and lose to Newcastle.

That's 14 matches in a row all having the "perfectly wrong" result for us.

Even if you're being generous, and saying Chelsea/Newcastle/Arsenal/Forest are vast favourites - let's make the odds unrealistic and say they have on average 60% chance of each fixture going this way (good luck finding odds like that on Chelsea to beat Liverpool). The probability of all of these results happening exactly like this is 0.08%.

 

[OldhamBlue94]

If we beat wolves and Southampton I believe that we would only need a draw from the last 2 games to secure top 5

 

[Alfie Budd]

I tend to agree. Chelsea and Villa are still dangers. Wolves have improved enormously, so that will be a hard fight.

Wolves have had a great run (16 points out of 18)* but those games were against the rags, Spurs, Ipswich, West Ham, Southampton and Everton. They haven’t beaten a top half team since Villa three months ago.
We should hopefully have more than enough to deal with them. And now that they’re safe they may just have one eye on the beach.

Edited: now 19 points out of 21. Add Leicester to the list of Wolves’ victims.

 

[MCFC1993]

It's not a title race, 5 teams aren't taking maximum points. 5th will finish on 67 or 68 points, that's the goal line.

City 61​	Chelsea 60​	Forest 60​	Newcastle 59​	Villa 57​
​	​	Brentford (H)	Ipswich (H)
Wolves (H)​	Liverpool (H)​	Palace (A)​	Brighton (A)​	Fulham (H)​
Southampton (A)​	Newcastle (A)​	Leicester (H)​	Chelsea (H)​	Bournemouth (A)​
Bournemouth (H)​	United (H)​	West Ham (A)​	Arsenal (A)​	Spurs (H)​
Fulham (A)​	Forest (A)​	Chelsea (H)​	Everton (H)​	United (A)​

You can say, oh Liverpool doesn't matter for Chelsea etc... but you can apply that logic to every match up then.

I think we're fine, Newcastle will get it done and then it's a toss up between Forest and Chelsea.

 

[BerkshireBlue]

City will ideally have to win every game.

I am not buying this hope towards Chelsea's fixture list.

They will playing a Liverpool team who will have been on the piss for a week at home next week, a United team that doesn't care about the league anymore and a Forest team who in my opinion will have it sewn up by the final day.

Only Newcastle away is the standout banana skin for me for Chelsea.

71 points will be needed meaning City can only afford 1 draw.

if Chelsea win all their games then we can't even afford 1 draw it as there is one scenario (Chelsea winning the head to heads) where Newcastle, Chelsea and Forest finish on 72 points.

 

[SWP's back]

If Newcastle and Forest both win there games in hand we will be back down to 5th.

And we’ll still be more likely to finish 2nd than 6th.

 

[jimharri]

If Newcastle and Forest both win there games in hand we will be back down to 5th.

I'm more concerned with Villa and Chelsea than either of them two.

 

[mexico1970]

I'm more concerned with Villa and Chelsea than either of them two.

I see where you are coming from but I can feel it in my piss that villas season ends later today.

 

[blueparrot]

Not concerned what anyone else does only that we get another 7 points that will do.Expecting 12 though and 3rd maybe 2nd.

 

[Zenmanc]

Give the barcodes 3 more points

 

[doobyedoobye]

Need to win them all

 

[.db.]

Not concerned what anyone else does only that we get another 7 points that will do.Expecting 12 though and 3rd maybe 2nd.

We need 8 points really.

If we only get 7pts/68pts (eg. Wolves 1pt, Soton 3pts, Bmouth 3pts, Fulham 0pts), the other maximums possible for each of the other sides is:

3rd Forest - 75pts (if they get max.pts that means they beat Chelsea)
4th Ncastle - 74pts (if they get max.pts that means they beat Chelsea)
5th Villa - 69pts
6th City - 68pts
7th Chels - 66pts

If we get 8 points/69pts (eg. Wolves 1pt, Soton 3pts, Bmouth 3pts, Fulham 1pt), our goal difference being +18 better than Villa’s, should see us finish in the top five.

Villa would have to win every game and outGD us by 4.75 gpg.

 

[jrb]

Villa look as if they are the first team to drop out of the race. 5 points behind Newcastle. 4 points behind City. If Forest win their game in hand, Villa will be 6 points behind Forest.

City, Newcastle, Forest, and Chelsea for the 3 remaining CL places. Forest play Chelsea last game of the season.

 

[Francis Crawford]

Let’s not forget if Arsenal fuck up in their next match to Bournemouth,they have Newcastle and Liverpool after that !
The bridesmaids could get dragged right back into it ?