The Labour Government

Hertzblue said:
Just for those unable to see beyond the obvious..
The unlucky 50 per week max are being taken back to France. Let me think, what will they do ? trudge the thousands of miles back home? or turn around and head back to Calais for another go ? What would stop them ? Ah you may say, they will not have the money for another crossing, indeed but if I was an enterprising people smuggler keen to keep my numbers up, I would be offering a free 2nd crossing if you were unlucky enough to be sent back.
Whereas Rwanda is in central Africa - chances are you are not coming back.
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Macron will be pinching himself that we were daft enough to sign up to it.
 
Hertzblue said:
Rwanda was all about deterrence, there were lots of early indications it would serve that purpose very well.
Starmers deal is also about deterrence, I may be wrong but I doubt it will serve that purpose to the same extent.
You are correct on the data collection but I doubt this will be much of a deterrent to try again as they have the opportunity to abscond one they arrive or alternatively try their luck in lorries / containers which tends to fly under the radar these days under the cover of the boat crossing publicity.
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Rwanda scheme was already in place, it was never a deterrent, boat crossings were still increasing.
It was a last ditch failed gimmick to appease the Farage lovers costing us 100’s of millions.
 
Interesting debate, but the small boat crossings could end up costing the Government a second term. The rise in popularity of effectively a one policy party is astonishing. This protest vote could easily cost them, and im not sure they understand that just yet.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
Interesting debate, but the small boat crossings could end up costing the Government a second term. The rise in popularity of effectively a one policy party is astonishing. This protest vote could easily cost them, and im not sure they understand that just yet.
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Not if Labour start getting the numbers down. Thats why Farage is clearly panicking and rattled by Macron.
 
Hertzblue said:
Rwanda was all about deterrence, there were lots of early indications it would serve that purpose very well.
Starmers deal is also about deterrence, I may be wrong but I doubt it will serve that purpose to the same extent.
You are correct on the data collection but I doubt this will be much of a deterrent to try again as they have the opportunity to abscond one they arrive or alternatively try their luck in lorries / containers which tends to fly under the radar these days under the cover of the boat crossing publicity.
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What were the early indications? It was never possible to scale up the project, so what kind of a deterrent would it be, when it was full after a month or two? I believe Israel tried and abandoned a scheme to send people to Rwanda, and that almost nobody who was sent were still in Rwanda - the majority having headed towards Europe.

Also, if it's so easy to simply abscond, then why not just do that in the first place? And why would Rwanda deter anyone if they could just abscond. If you're going to disappear, it really doesn't matter where you're not being sent.

As for the lorries- isn't the main reason people are risking their lives in boats, because it's much, much harder to cross via a lorry? There was a French right wing politician complaining recently about all the security around Calais, which meant that migrants had to find other routes, or even stay in France.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
Are you sure this scheme will work? I'm not sure it's a big enough deterrent.
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Nope, I’m not, it will take time and will have its faults and we must maintain our relationship with France so nothing is certain. However, in labours first year Migration has halved, they have cracked down on illegal workers and gangs and now we have this new policy - they’re clearly trying to resolve what is a long complex issue. Reform have no solution except frothing at the mouth and denouncing everything the government does.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
Are you sure this scheme will work? I'm not sure it's a big enough deterrent.
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It'll only work if it gets scaled up. If it reaches a critical mass where nearly everyone is sent back, then it becomes pointless to try. Whether that happens, your guess is as good as mine.

I can appreciate some might say being sent to Rwanda is worse than being sent back to France, but then this scheme clearly has the advantage of being a lot easier to scale. Rwanda said they wouldn't take more than a few thousand, which means it could never fully deter people. While this appears to have a neutral effect for the French in the one in/one out stage, their end game is that it makes it hard enough to get into the UK, that less people will bother travelling across Europe to France, in the hope of getting to the UK.

And of course, the big advantage is that it's likely not illegal, so the Government will actually be able to do it.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
Are you sure this scheme will work? I'm not sure it's a big enough deterrent.
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People should look at it from Macron’s perspective.

He can effectively control the number of people retuned to France. Fifty a week, even a hundred a week; it won’t make any difference given the number of small boat crossings, which have rocketed under this government. And even when a few people come back to France, he gets to send an equivalent number of asylum seekers to the UK.

He has absolutely nothing to lose from the scheme.
 
BlueHammer85 said:
Nope, I’m not, it will take time and will have its faults and we must maintain our relationship with France so nothing is certain. However, in labours first year Migration has halved, they have cracked down on illegal workers and gangs and now we have this new policy - they’re clearly trying to resolve what is a long complex issue. Reform have no solution except frothing at the mouth and denouncing everything the government does.
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I think if Labour ignore Reform they do so at their peril. Starmers Government are not popular, sure they have their cheer leaders like you, and there are people like me who are prepared to give them a bit of time. But clearly many are not prepared to do that.

They have made some mistakes which is to be expected to an extent, but essentially they need some good economic numbers and soon, which will allow them to start spending in other areas. And they need to get a grip on these small boats as it's a very high profile issue and the vast majority of the public just dont like it.
 
Brewster's millions said:
People should look at it from Macron’s perspective.

He can effectively control the number of people retuned to France. Fifty a week, even a hundred a week; it won’t make any difference given the number of small boat crossings, which have rocketed under this government. And even when a few people come back to France, he gets to send an equivalent number of asylum seekers to the UK.

He has absolutely nothing to lose from the scheme.
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Are we paying France to operate this system? I've not watched any news today?
 
bluethrunthru said:
The Rwanda scheme cost £700 MILLION to send 4 volunteers there - do the maths per person - 50 per week = 2600 a year at no cost and thats a pilot that can be increased.
A free 2nd crossing? Oh do fuck off they are not a charity the idea they will offer a second free crossing is for the birds as for Rwanda once you got there you were free to go wherever you wanted to go ..... maybe even back to the channel
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Genius
 
bluenova said:
What were the early indications? It was never possible to scale up the project, so what kind of a deterrent would it be, when it was full after a month or two? I believe Israel tried and abandoned a scheme to send people to Rwanda, and that almost nobody who was sent were still in Rwanda - the majority having headed towards Europe.

Also, if it's so easy to simply abscond, then why not just do that in the first place? And why would Rwanda deter anyone if they could just abscond. If you're going to disappear, it really doesthn't matter where you're not being sent.

As for the lorries- isn't the main reason people are risking their lives in boats, because it's much, much harder to cross via a lorry? There was a French right wing politician complaining recently about all the security around Calais, which meant that migrants had to find other routes, or even stay in France.
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The obvious one was the surge in migrants choosing to go to Ireland instead, very many openly said that Rwanda drove that decision - that is deterrence at work.

Of course you wouldn't abscond in the first place, you would chance your arm on acceptance and all the advantages that brings.

Detections of migrants attempting to hide in lorries on the French side are up ,as far as I am aware there is no data for UK side. The numbers are substantial and of course we don't know how many get through.
 
bluenova said:
It'll only work if it gets scaled up. If it reaches a critical mass where nearly everyone is sent back, then it becomes pointless to try. Whether that happens, your guess is as good as mine.

I can appreciate some might say being sent to Rwanda is worse than being sent back to France, but then this scheme clearly has the advantage of being a lot easier to scale. Rwanda said they wouldn't take more than a few thousand, which means it could never fully deter people. While this appears to have a neutral effect for the French in the one in/one out stage, their end game is that it makes it hard enough to get into the UK, that less people will bother travelling across Europe to France, in the hope of getting to the UK.

And of course, the big advantage is that it's likely not illegal, so the Government will actually be able to do it.
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Fair enough but I still think they need to make the UK a less attractive place to claim assylum.
 
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