The Labour Government

Spot on in every respect. You would have my full support for such measures.

We can collect a lot more tax (and waste a lot less resources chasing it) with a much more simple, fairer tax system.

Another change to add to your list: It is LUDICROUS that people in e.g. leafy Ascot where there is little or no social deprivation and minimal welfare bill, should pay perhaps half the council tax on their $2m 4 bed detatched, compared to someone in e.g. Rotherham in their similar 4 bed detatched that's worth £500k.

I am (somewhat) in favour of local democracy but I think we have too many layers and some things (such as the above) should be better and more fairly standardised across the UK. Why should someone in Wales, or Gloucester, for example, have shit healthcare provision and outcomes compared to someone in Berkshire? We are all supposed to be entitled to the same level of NHS service, but we are not.
Something that made me laugh a few months ago was a caller into LBC saying his mother-in-law couldn't afford to pay her utility bills, despite owning and living in a million pound house. James O'Brien's advice to the caller was for him and his wife to stop being tight twats who want the whole house leaving to them and instead advise her mother to release some funds via equity release. That way, she'd have more than enough money to pay her utility bills for the rest of her days, yet she'd still own a large chunk of the house meaning her daughter would still inherit a shit load of money anyway!
 
I have already. Our 10 year guilt yields are perilously high due to the market's view of our perilously high borrowing and the genuine prospect that the UK may default on its debts. You do understand that's what guilt bond yields are? A measure of how likely the markets think the UK may go bust.

Reeves et al cannot just keep burdening the UK with more and more debt, nor tax rises. The last tax and borrowing rises were the greatest in about 50 years, and now everyone is expecting more in the Autumn. We are on a downward spiral - higher taxes, more borrowing, higher debt interest rates and higher debt interest, more taxes, more borrowing. And if it continues, with no improvement, we WILL go bust.

The markets briefly panicked when Reeves was blubbing, not because she's doing a great job - she isn't - but they reckon she at least understands the severity of the situtation, unlike some of her idiot mates who advocate just taxing and spending more and more. And they (the markets) were scared shitless about who might come next.
As much as I may disagree with the approach you prescribe in some of your other posts, I fully agree that the the key to stability is to get the markets onside, as this will give the fiscal headroom to invest in the country going forwards. Whilst the electorate dont like to hear it we all need to pay more tax and see little improvement for a period of time.
 
My view is tax Reform so Starmer or whoever hopefully replaces him has in effect a blank sheet. Generally you want to put more money in the pockets of those you know will spend it. I would personally raise tax allowance have more bands for income tax. I would also scrap NI for employees and have tte income tax bands higher.

To be successful and not completely batter the well off we need to get money out of companies and the self employed who tbh get away with a lot. You would need to invest heavily in tax inspectors and be able to impose one off taxes on large companies.

I would widen council tax bands, that would be my wealth tax. There are obviously loads of other taxes that can be looked at be that would need experts to comment on.

Just picking on individual groups to raise money ain't gonna be enough.

This will take some time to avoid fucking it up, it should have happened years ago. We are wasting time with this status quo pick a side to dump on bullshit. What sort of country do people want?

Whoa, there, let’s pump the brakes on the self-employed hate. On one hand it’s ‘picking on individual groups ain’t going to be enough’, and on the other ‘we need to get money out of the self-employed who get away with a lot’.

Maybe, it’s just ‘pick on groups we don’t like’ day :)

I became self-employed when I turned forty, and it ain’t easy. No guaranteed pay check, no paid holidays. If you ain’t working, you ain’t earning. And for the record I run a £500 to a £1,000 credit on my HMRC tax account. I’m literally lending the country in its time of need. I should get a bloody medal.
 
Brexit requires a larger State and public sector. There is more administration, Red tape, customs resources etc. For example Instead of one centralised source to regulate and test chemicals used by industry for 30 countries, we have to undertake the task ourselves, which requires facilities, staff and so on.

In short, if you no longer outsource the cost of regulatory oversight on the industrial sector you have to do it in-house and that will cost more and require a larger State.

Johnson seemed to acknowledge this. Truss didn’t. Sunak just wanted to get through to the election and jack it in for a cushy job in the City. A secret gang of liberals is, given Johnson’s purge of the Tory Party, somewhat fanciful to put it politely.
That makes sense however there are advantages and disadvantages because isn't our say in that regulation then divided? This is like arguing to run a business by outsourcing the management of it to others who then take a decision which includes canvassing our competitors.

If we wanted to change certain regulations for example to ease services regulation (given we're a services economy) then where would that demand sit in the priority list and what happens if others disputed that change? Surely such a change would never benefit us if that change was to enable better competition with EU companies because wouldn't they benefit too?

When we were in the EU we had a Tory government but how much power did the Tory government have within the EU Parliament? The answer is none because the UK had no representation within the largest political faction (EPP). The Tories sat within the ECR group, a group representing just 10% of the EU Parliament, so a minority.

The only power that we wielded in the EU generally was in the European Council where our say was again divided and diluted. Even still the way in which EU treaties work if we for example wanted to reject our part in a common currency then we couldn't just say no due to the overwhelming interests of the others. We'd have to negotiate our way out of it and we did.
 
FWIW, I do think the Starmer - Macron plan will significantly reduce illegal boat crossings. I said so earlier. To that extent it's a worthwhile thing to do.

But it does come with baggage. Like us having in return to accept more genuine asylum seekers. And potentially other stuff we're not being told yet, like costs, for example.

People need to understand that unlike the UK, France ONLY does what is in France's best interests and fuck everyone else. That's just the way it is. So why have they agreed to have these boat people back? What's in it for France?
! would dearly love to believe you, but sadly I just cannot see it happening.
 
Indeed!

I since found the missing figures. So the compete picture is:

August 0.2%
September -0.1%
October -0.1%
November +0.1%
December 2024: +0.4%
January 2025: -0.1%
February 2025: +0.5%
March 2025: +0.2%
April 2025: -0.3%
May 2025: -0.1%

Without creating a spreadsheet, I don't know what this looks like in terms of annual growth rate, but clearly it's a way short of the 2.5% target.
Since they came into office, GDP (June 24 to May 25) is up 0.85%. That's an annualised pace of 0.92%. For the whole time series of monthly GDP data, that 0.92% figure is more or less the boundary of the bottom quintile of annualised growth rates.

For reference, during the whole duration of the last government, GDP growth (using the monthly data) was an average annualised 1.51%. Up to end-2019, pre-Covid, the last government's average annualised GDP growth rate was 1.91%.

Looks like they've got a bit of catching up to do.
 
So how is this one in one out plan supposed to work and benefit the UK?

For example, in July we could have 2,000 boat crossings. France identify a further 50 people who they deem suitable to come to the UK and send them over, in return we can send 50 of the 2000 that crossed over to the UK back to France.

The net result i that the UK have an additional 2000 people in the country. 1950 illegal and 50 legal.

So what is the benefit? The 1950 will still need to be accommodated and cared for.

Where is the benefit?
 
So how is this one in one out plan supposed to work and benefit the UK?

For example, in July we could have 2,000 boat crossings. France identify a further 50 people who they deem suitable to come to the UK and send them over, in return we can send 50 of the 2000 that crossed over to the UK back to France.

The net result i that the UK have an additional 2000 people in the country. 1950 illegal and 50 legal.

So what is the benefit? The 1950 will still need to be accommodated and cared for.

Where is the benefit?

It only works if the numbers increase to the point where those 2000 people don't see the point in making the trip.

The 50 is a pilot scheme, and they've already said they expect the pilot to go up from that number. Ultimately nobody here knows how fast, or how high the numbers will go, and whether they'll ever reach the tipping point that makes crossing by boat too big a risk.

As with any of these arguments, we need to reconvene in a couple of years, and look back, and see if it worked or it didn't. Right now, most people's view is likely dependent on who they listen to and which party they support.
 
Whoa, there, let’s pump the brakes on the self-employed hate. On one hand it’s ‘picking on individual groups ain’t going to be enough’, and on the other ‘we need to get money out of the self-employed who get away with a lot’.

Maybe, it’s just ‘pick on groups we don’t like’ day :)

I became self-employed when I turned forty, and it ain’t easy. No guaranteed pay check, no paid holidays. If you ain’t working, you ain’t earning. And for the record I run a £500 to a £1,000 credit on my HMRC tax account. I’m literally lending the country in its time of need. I should get a bloody medal.
same here. No sick cash either
 
That makes sense however there are advantages and disadvantages because isn't our say in that regulation then divided? This is like arguing to run a business by outsourcing the management of it to others who then take a decision which includes canvassing our competitors.

If we wanted to change certain regulations for example to ease services regulation (given we're a services economy) then where would that demand sit in the priority list and what happens if others disputed that change? Surely such a change would never benefit us if that change was to enable better competition with EU companies because wouldn't they benefit too?

When we were in the EU we had a Tory government but how much power did the Tory government have within the EU Parliament? The answer is none because the UK had no representation within the largest political faction (EPP). The Tories sat within the ECR group, a group representing just 10% of the EU Parliament, so a minority.

The only power that we wielded in the EU generally was in the European Council where our say was again divided and diluted. Even still the way in which EU treaties work if we for example wanted to reject our part in a common currency then we couldn't just say no due to the overwhelming interests of the others. We'd have to negotiate our way out of it and we did.

Establishment of which chemicals and/or chemical levels are harmful at an agreed level over thirty countries or thirty countries deciding which chemicals and levels they will allow and leading to country A using a chemical that is banned by country B and given they share a land border leading to disputes over chemicals leaching into one territory or another.

The point of EU regulation is harmonisation and cost efficiency meaning everyone is the same level playing field and no one is trying to cut potentially harmful corners. It is also designed to reduce territorial friction and national disputes given Europe has been famous for its national fisticuffs.

Will this lead to a country bitching about a regulation they don’t like? Absolutely, welcome to the EU. And why do countries stay? Because the trade benefits outweigh a quibble over a regulation or two, and countries are able to negotiate opt outs if they feel strongly about. Rule No 2 of the EU. There is always wriggle room for member states because member states ultimately decide what the EU can and cannot do. We opted out of many rules including limiting the working week because we British enjoy the right to work ourselves to death :)

If I recall the Tories took the decision to exclude themselves from the EPP grouping. It was too pro Europe for their tastes.

Look, we can either decide between cooperation or confrontation with our nearest neighbours. We opted for confrontation and a lot of us want to keep that confrontation alive and sod the trade benefits - these will be the same folk who bang on about economic growth (lol).

Starmer’s aim is to deal with the EU and revive those trade benefits and reduce the cost of doing business. A quick and dirty deal with the US also done to mitigate the initial impact of tariffs. He also wants a deal to reduce the optics of boat crossings and (I suspect) allow easier labour flow with the EU and lessen the need for more Brexit driven immigration which tends to be less transitory (if it’s easier and cheaper to move here, it’s easier to move on).

The other thing our economy needs is stability. It has taken too many shocks and suffered from too much political instability in recent years. It needs a continuity of purpose. This does not preclude mistakes, but it does need a Government willing to govern.

Will it work? I have no idea, but I for one like the general direction even if I disagree with some of the measures taken ie welfare.
 
"I strongly suspect Starmer binned it, in case it did work, more as a political gesture"

The latter with absolutely no substance except the world according to chippy.
Forgive me for having an opinion. Seems you're unfamiliar with the word "suspect". It's not the same as "know", you know.

I'll look forward to you not posting any of your opinions on the thread.
 
Something that made me laugh a few months ago was a caller into LBC saying his mother-in-law couldn't afford to pay her utility bills, despite owning and living in a million pound house. James O'Brien's advice to the caller was for him and his wife to stop being tight twats who want the whole house leaving to them and instead advise her mother to release some funds via equity release. That way, she'd have more than enough money to pay her utility bills for the rest of her days, yet she'd still own a large chunk of the house meaning her daughter would still inherit a shit load of money anyway!
Well James O'brien is at the end of the day a moron, as we all know.

Equity release is fraught with danger - putting it mildly - unless you are (a) very old or (b) in very bad health. I know - I have got quotes for it in the past.

And it's only natural for people to want to leave things to their kids. The lady could well have nothing left after equity release. Not that she'd be able to leave everything to her daughter anyway, if she has 40% IHT to pay on everything over £0.5m of assets.

And your point illustrates one of the problems with wealth taxes. Some people are asset rich but relatively poor in income terms.
 
Well James O'brien is at the end of the day a moron, as we all know.

Equity release is fraught with danger - putting it mildly - unless you are (a) very old or (b) in very bad health. I know - I have got quotes for it in the past.

And it's only natural for people to want to leave things to their kids. The lady could well have nothing left after equity release. Not that she'd be able to leave everything to her daughter anyway, if she has 40% IHT to pay on everything over £0.5m of assets.

And your point illustrates one of the problems with wealth taxes. Some people are asset rich but relatively poor in income terms.

You mean the poor lambs will have to make do on a cool tax free £500k and 60% of what is left over? The horror of Starmer’s Britain laid bare. Shocking.
 
Well James O'brien is at the end of the day a moron, as we all know.

Equity release is fraught with danger - putting it mildly - unless you are (a) very old or (b) in very bad health. I know - I have got quotes for it in the past.

And it's only natural for people to want to leave things to their kids. The lady could well have nothing left after equity release. Not that she'd be able to leave everything to her daughter anyway, if she has 40% IHT to pay on everything over £0.5m of assets.

And your point illustrates one of the problems with wealth taxes. Some people are asset rich but relatively poor in income terms.
I think the point he was making is that if you live in a million pound house there are more ways of accessing cash that wouldn't be available to someone who was living in a much less expensive house or, worse still, didn't own the house they were living in.

I'll also add that half a million quid is a hell of a decent wedge before IHT kicks in. Put it this way - I wouldn't be complaining about IHT if I inherited over half a million and anyone that does needs to have a reality check. In any case - and I'll make it clear that in no way am I saying that parents shouldn't be leaving money and assets to their children - fully grown adults who are capable of looking after themselves shouldn't be relying on inheritance from their parents. And I say that as someone who has just inherited part of my dad's estate.
 
You mean the poor lambs will have to make do on a cool tax free £500k and 60% of what is left over? The horror of Starmer’s Britain laid bare. Shocking.
Honestly I find your attitude here absolutely disgusting. That you should be mocking the fact that someone gets to pass just SOME of their worldly wealth to their children?

You say you are not a "lefty". Honestly you behave like you're a fully paid up Marxist at times.
 

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