This year is a write off on the numbers. The Govt might as well just take the lumps for it and put it in the rear view. They have three and half years to sort this.
Firstly, by clearing the back log and keeping on top of new applications. Secondly, by demonstrating the value of the send back program with France and building on that. If you reduce the value in making the crossing then crossings will drop and if you incentivise those applicants who don’t make the crossing, ie one in, one out, then you are likely to reduce the optics of those arriving by boat.
They need to build a narrative of a steady decline in crossings and the visible front print of migrant hotels etc. Unfortunately, building a narrative is not this Govts strongpoint, but fingers crossed, the numbers will hopefully sell the story :)