Will we win the league this season? No

[Lovebitesandeveryfing]

The Arsenal collapse hasn't happened yet and may not. Neither has ours.

Collapse? No, there'll be no collapse. What I call a collapse is losing two or even three games in a row, at this stage of the season. I just don't believe that's going to happen. I see no sign of it.
What there can be, though, is a dropping of points with draws in unexpected places. As with Wolves. All it takes is us beating Forest (and we bloody well should be doing, frankly!) and for them to get a rocky draw at the Amex. Then they're three points ahead, we have a game in hand.
I think there's a good chance they can come to the Etihad and get a draw from us. I've been proceeding off that assumption right from the start. I genuinely believe we can win all our home matches, and all our away ones — yes, including the Chelsea one — with the exception of the Arsenal one. Leeds, for various reasons, was our most difficult away fixture.
We need to overhaul their goal difference. This could be another 2011-12.
I still have them favourites, though. Not by a lot — it's marginal.

 

[alexmcity]

Lots of people are really getting their goat up about Arsenal's reliance on set-pieces but that's exactly what's stopping them from walking away with the league. Arteta's playing incredibly conservative football, giving up a lot of possession and control, and not getting anywhere near the best out of his squad as a result of his set-piece obsession.

Because City are in the title race this season it has distorted expectations of what we should be capable of in terms of points achieved. We're good enough to get about 75-80 points this season, maybe a smidge more than that if we go on a really strong run until the end of the season. Normally that would be nowhere near a title-winning amount.

We got 78 points in 2013, 79 points in 2015, 78 points in 2017, and 81 points in 2020. We were nowhere near winning the league in any of those seasons. United, Chelsea, Chelsea again, and Liverpool all walked away with their titles in those years. Arsenal have been building this squad for five years and they should be walking away with this one too.

Their squad has lots of quality and depth. Raya one of the best keepers in the league, a strong back four, a tall and technical midfield, lots of diversity up front in terms of player profile, the man who scored the winning goal in last season's FA Cup final to come off the bench. Meanwhile we're in the first year of an absolutely huge rebuild.

But here we are, neck and neck. And it's because they won't take the handbrake off. It's all well and good when the set-pieces work, but there have been many, many games this season in which the set-pieces haven't come off and Arsenal have had no idea how to close the game down. It nearly cost them against 10 men on Sunday.

It's a bit like us when Haaland isn't playing well. If we can supply him and he buries a chance, great. If defenders just mark him out of the game we have no answer. It's the same with Arsenal - so many points dropped this season in games when the corners didn't come off as they wanted and got pulled back into a title race with a weaker City.

0-0 against that Liverpool team. 0-0 at Forest. Losing at home to United. Getting battered by Brentford. Dropping points to one of the worst teams in the league after being 2-0 up. Nearly chucking it away in a home match against 10 men. This team has been built over the course of five years to be perfect but this is the best they've got?

Four wins in their last nine league games. What gives people the idea that they're going to suddenly win all of their last nine games in a row, scoring from corners in every single one of them? They should have strolled away with this league and they should already be planning the parade - instead they're getting cagier and cagier and cagier.

Let them carry on thinking that set-pieces are the key to winning the title. As it has done already this season, it will cost them enough points for us to take them over if we play as well as we can. Their home crowd are nervy and fractious. The atmosphere will get toxic at the Emirates if they don't score early in these final few home games.

City rebuilding and recovering from legends leaving, Liverpool a dumpster fire until Christmas, Aston Villa streaky as fuck. This was Arsenal's year to effectively seal the title in March and then go for the treble. They have squandered it. Their 22-23 squad would be miles clear of the pack right now. Instead they risk dropping to 2nd.

People think Arsenal are only leading the league because of their set-piece goals. I don't agree. They're only top because a City team recovering from a massively underwhelming season, and still figuring out a new system, spent the whole of January without a fit senior CB in the squad. They kept leaving us alive - they will pay for it.

Good analysis. Agree with the claim that Arsenal are a bit too conservative.

But Liverpool won the league with 84 pts last season. Since the league has become much stronger outside the top 6 teams, getting 86-87 pts, the average to win a PL title over 38 games, is difficult.

If we draw 2 games in the last 10 games and win the rest, we'll finish on 85 pts. That'd be pretty close to the average pts totals of the PL winners.

 

[Danny Tiatto]

Good analysis. Agree with the claim that Arsenal are a bit too conservative.

But Liverpool won the league with 84 pts last season. Since the league has become much stronger outside the top 6 teams, getting 86-87 pts, the average to win a PL title over 38 games, is difficult.

If we draw 2 games in the last 10 games and win the rest, we'll finish on 85 pts. That'd be pretty close to the average pts totals of the PL winners.

Liverpool were also on the beach for their last 4-5 games. They probably would have posted closer to 90 points if they had not wrapped it up so early

 

[PeterBarnesShorts]

True but the other thing that hasn’t been pointed out is that as good as arsenal are at attacking set pieces they are pretty awful at defending them.

Pretty easy to defend corners like this..

 

[Victorinodennistua]

Collapse? No, there'll be no collapse. What I call a collapse is losing two or even three games in a row, at this stage of the season. I just don't believe that's going to happen. I see no sign of it.
What there can be, though, is a dropping of points with draws in unexpected places. As with Wolves. All it takes is us beating Forest (and we bloody well should be doing, frankly!) and for them to get a rocky draw at the Amex. Then they're three points ahead, we have a game in hand.
I think there's a good chance they can come to the Etihad and get a draw from us. I've been proceeding off that assumption right from the start. I genuinely believe we can win all our home matches, and all our away ones — yes, including the Chelsea one — with the exception of the Arsenal one. Leeds, for various reasons, was our most difficult away fixture.
We need to overhaul their goal difference. This could be another 2011-12.
I still have them favourites, though. Not by a lot — it's marginal.

Special mention to Donna, Nico o’ and the rest for keeping us in it.If you really want to know how good Arsenal have been with all the usual shithousery antics. Utd are 3rd and we haven’t been convincing ffs. Tbh if they don’t win it this year my tear ducts won’t be able to take anymore crying with laughter. I’d probably have to get them snipped if it happens.

 

[Father Paul]

I'd rather they just dropped the points in these games.

Against Spurs they were rampent but yesterday they struggled at times and with a proper goalkeeper and a bit of luck at the end Chelsea would have got something. Now thats all a case of close but no cigar but the point is they show all the signs of cracking during the run in. The hard part will be beating them, winning our game in hand and matching their other results. We may not be able to do that.

 

[alexmcity]

Liverpool were also on the beach for their last 4-5 games. They probably would have posted closer to 90 points if they had not wrapped it up so early

Alternatively, Liverpool just lost form like they did in Klopp's last season.

 

[Father Paul]

Pretty easy to defend corners like this..

Its a complete farce the way this is going.

 

[Father Paul]

Its a complete farce the way this is going.

A possible way to deal with this is to play an advantage and if a goal results allow it if not order the corner to be retaken. More than once if necessary. The third time the infringement occurs give a penalty.
Not a great advertisment for the game but it might root out this nonsense

 

[Saddleworth2]

Pretty easy to defend corners like this..

What a bloody joke this is. Pep should really go to town on it in the build up to the game and create a media storm. It is authorised cheating. Cheating in plain view and it is astonishing that it hasn’t been called out as such.

 

[PeterBarnesShorts]

It’s a complete farce the way this is going.

What is equally ludicrous,is that it’s not even discussed anywhere in the msm!?Are they happy that the games going this way,if it stops City winning another title?!
Looks like they’re coaching them to lock their fingers together for extra strength too,if you look at Saliba!Fuckin unbelievable….

 

[Nevizade]

What a bloody joke this is. Pep should really go to town on it in the build up to the game and create a media storm. It is authorised cheating. Cheating in plain view and it is astonishing that it hasn’t been called out as such.

I hope Pep is waiting until the week before we play them but I don't think he's that kind of person.

 

[Danny Tiatto]

Alternatively, Liverpool just lost form like they did in Klopp's last season.

Alternatively who’s to say that may not happen to Arsenal? They have finished 2nd three times in a row which although we take the piss out of is quite consistent. Both ourselves and Liverpool have shown we can have a drop off after performing highly why are arsenal immune to it?

 

[Saddleworth2]

I hope Pep is waiting until the week before we play them but I don't think he's that kind of person.

Someone needs to do it. I read that Moyes had a dig but it was very gentle.

 

[alexmcity]

Alternatively who’s to say that may not happen to Arsenal? They have finished 2nd three times in a row which although we take the piss out of is quite consistent. Both ourselves and Liverpool have shown we can have a drop off after performing highly why are arsenal immune to it?

Nobody *knows* what's going to happen. Arsenal tend to finish badly in most seasons, but won 16 from the last 18 games in 23/24 and pushed us until the end.

The past doesn't play on the pitch. Nothing is set in stone. Anything is possible, including one of us and Arsenal winning multiple trophies this season.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Pretty easy to defend corners like this..

It's incredible. I thought this was the whole point of VAR!

 

[Lovebitesandeveryfing]

I've just been reading on the beeb that you can't whistle for a foul if the ball is not in play. And therefore as long as the person taking the corner has not made contact with the ball, it's considered to be not in play. And therefore this wrestling match that we're now subjected to can be going on in penalty areas up and down the land and the ref can supposedly do nothing about it. But that is utterly ridiculous. The law must be modified, if that is the case. If a defender has his arms clearly round an attacking player, or vice versa, that should obviously be considered a foul and should be yellow carded. Second time, red. It would stop this nonsense stone dead in its tracks. What business does any player have having his arms round another player on the pitch, unless it's his way of saying he fancies him and is asking him out?
It is no part of the game of football.
And by the way — what of penalties, therefore? The ball is stationary until contact is made. But the keeper can still be sanctioned for advancing off his line prior to that contact. In that case, is the ball considered in play, despite being stationary?

 

[Father Paul]

Good analysis. Agree with the claim that Arsenal are a bit too conservative.

But Liverpool won the league with 84 pts last season. Since the league has become much stronger outside the top 6 teams, getting 86-87 pts, the average to win a PL title over 38 games, is difficult.

If we draw 2 games in the last 10 games and win the rest, we'll finish on 85 pts. That'd be pretty close to the average pts totals of the PL winners.

The league will be won on 82 to 85. The higher number more likely. One defeat and one draw might be allowable assuming we win against them.

 

[rodrizontal]

Alternatively who’s to say that may not happen to Arsenal? They have finished 2nd three times in a row which although we take the piss out of is quite consistent. Both ourselves and Liverpool have shown we can have a drop off after performing highly why are arsenal immune to it?

One of my earlier posts on this thread was about how I expected Arsenal to struggle this season because it is virtually impossible to be in the title race four years in a row. You could argue that they are struggling this season because in some other seasons, they might not even be in the title race with their current points tally.

 

[rodrizontal]

Anyone who watches the matches can see they are all over the place at the moment. Nerves are certainly kicking in and it’s only going to get worse for them.

They look tired. Their defence which looked rock solid earlier in the season now looks vulnerable. They have an attack full of very average players.

Yeah, they look like they are in ‘close out’ mode, limping to the end. When looking at their remaining fixtures, I think teams that can set up good low blocks and still have something to fight for could cause them problems. I can see them dropping points against a team like Everton, although it’s at the Emirates.