EU referendum

[EalingBlue2]

There's zero chance of a trade deal not being agreed between Britian and the EU if we leave, nobody credible believes this won't happen, we buy far too much French wine and cheese and expensive German cars, and the Eurozone is in enough trouble as it is without committing suicide via a self indulgent trade war with Britain. The argument is around what kind of trade deal. Norway? Switzerland? Canada? Or a bespoke deal that reflects the fact that Britain is the EUs most important export market.

I think this is where the outers miss the point a countries power in negotiation is determined by what they have to import not what they get to export. Ultimately if the UK needs those imports more than the EU needs the export market then the deal will favour the exporter. The problem the UK has is on the fundamental basics of self sufficiency IE raw materials, agriculture, power, and the raw materials around this it needs to import and every country the UK will negotiate with knows that.

What makes it harder is most of the UKs main exports are import dependent as well though not necessarily from the EU

 

[EalingBlue2]

Or they will close all the borders, deny use of their airspace and bring the UK to its knees until Prime Minister Boris and Chancellor Farage go begging to the court of Merkel to be allowed back in...

That would make for an interesting time

 

[smudgedj]

Or they will close all the borders, deny use of their airspace and bring the UK to its knees until Prime Minister Boris and Chancellor Farage go begging to the court of Merkel to be allowed back in...

PMSl Good job we can nuke them then.

 

[hgblue]

I think this is where the outers miss the point a countries power in negotiation is determined by what they have to import not what they get to export. Ultimately if the UK needs those imports more than the EU needs the export market then the deal will favour the exporter. The problem the UK has is on the fundamental basics of self sufficiency IE raw materials, agriculture, power, and the raw materials around this it needs to import and every country the UK will negotiate with knows that.

What makes it harder is most of the UKs main exports are import dependent as well though not necessarily from the EU

Our power in negotiations will come from the fact that we buy far more from them than we sell them, and we can buy our cars from Japan and our wine from South Africa if they decided to get shitty with us. This would stuff the Eurozone and they know it, so it just won't happen because self interest will previal over revenge.

 

[cibaman]

There's zero chance of a trade deal not being agreed between Britian and the EU if we leave, nobody credible believes this won't happen, we buy far too much French wine and cheese and expensive German cars, and the Eurozone is in enough trouble as it is without committing suicide via a self indulgent trade war with Britain. The argument is around what kind of trade deal. Norway? Switzerland? Canada? Or a bespoke deal that reflects the fact that Britain is the EUs most important export market.

It has to be a deal that will be agreed by a Qualified Majority Vote of the EU countries. Which means that it must be accepted by a significant number of EU countries for whom trade with the UK is not that big a deal, those that don't make French wine or German cars, but for whom free movement of labour is a deal breaker. Only a Norway type deal is likely to gain the necessary votes. But it would be politically impossible for the leaders of the Leave campaigns to accept a Norway type deal.

 

[SWP's back]

They can't but nor can you drag in problems caused by US, Russia, Saudi, France and Britain and blame them on the EU or on Germany and Greece.
At the moment the rest of Europe is dealing with a humanitarian crisis they had a little prt in causing and we had a big part and it is us complaining. I think the actual anger should be going the other way and were I Germany or Greece I'd be livid at what I was paying for because of US, French and British aggression

Funny you dont mention Russian aggression when we both know they've had a larger hand in it than anyone.

And the Germans are thrilled. That's why they've taken in 2 million.

 

[SWP's back]

That is capitalism, pure and simple. You either believe in it or you don't. I can see why those in the unions and on the left would abhor this I cannot see how anyone else can complain

because we haven't got full capitalism have we. We have a welfare state and regulations and the above example is wholly illegal.

 

[CityStu]

It has to be a deal that will be agreed by a Qualified Majority Vote of the EU countries. Which means that it must be accepted by a significant number of EU countries for whom trade with the UK is not that big a deal, those that don't make French wine or German cars, but for whom free movement of labour is a deal breaker. Only a Norway type deal is likely to gain the necessary votes. But it would be politically impossible for the leaders of the Leave campaigns to accept a Norway type deal.

So you don't think there will be any pressure from the big guns of Germany and France on the little ones to step in line? If Lithuania decide to really fuck up the revenue of the likes of BMW and Mercedes, I don't think they're going to do well out of other EU treaties/deals...

 

[Monkfish]

So you don't think there will be any pressure from the big guns of Germany and France on the little ones to step in line? If Lithuania decide to really fuck up the revenue of the likes of BMW and Mercedes, I don't think they're going to do well out of other EU treaties/deals...

So if the big countries can get their own way, and we are a big country surely we don't need to leave after all. Glad I sorted that dilemma for everyone.

 

[CityStu]

So if the big countries can get their own way, and we are a big country surely we don't need to leave after all. Glad I sorted that dilemma for everyone.

Getting their own way insofar as being able to create a trade deal than has absolutely no effect on a smaller nation which is blocking it due to petulance, yes probably.