What percentage chance of going through (both now and when the draw was made)

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Silva2021

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Trying to gauge the reaction from fellow blues on today's result is it good, bad or somewhat ok?

The no away goal is a huge bonus but the fact is Madrid at home, they will fancy beating us.

So percentage wise how do we see it. For me I thought we had a 40% chance when the draw was made and now about 33% after the result tonight.
 
I'd say the opposite. We had a 33% shot but now that it's down to a 1 game playoff with our goals counting more I'd say we've gone up to 40%.

It's unlikely well go through but more likely than before.
 
35%, historically speaking.


Under current regulations, 712 european ties started with 0-0 on 1st leg. 462 times (65%) went through the one with 2nd leg at home.
 
30%? I'm glad we're still well in it. I didn't see anything to frighten City either. They were good, but not that good. We're a lot closer than we ever have been.
 
I think if we played 10 games at their place, we probably lose 6 or 7 of them? So somewhere between 30 and 40% chance of progressing.
 
I had a similar discussion with my mate coming home about this. I reckoned we had a 20% chance, he reckoned 40%. Not winning probably means our chances are less but it's marginal given that they didn't get an away goal and we were underdogs when the draw was made but now it's effectively just over one match and not two. So 30%ish.
 
I can't see any reason why our chances haven't improved with the potential of an away goal, irrespective of their home advantage in the next leg. For that reason, whatever the percentage chance was before - it's increased in my estimation (not arsed about the bookies - looks like they've already fucked up a couple of times this year in the footy stakes).
 
before tonight to qualify 3.5
now to qualify 3 .........0-0 in the bookies eyes gives us the greater chance too make the final
 
For Real, it's the worst possible scenario.

For every goal we score, they have to score one more.

I didn't think they were anything special today. They were better than average in the second half, but no more than that.

I'm quietly confident.

We snuffed each other out today but I'm expecting more from both teams next Wednesday.

We have a very good chance and with no away goals conceded, we have the upper hand at the moment

Real are serial bottlers at this stage of the competition, losing 5 out of their last 6 semi finals, so I'm rating our chances of progressing at 50:50.

We can beat them.
 
When the draw was made - 30%
Now - 35%

We can totally mince them on the counter, particularly if Toure is fit.
 
I think we learnt so much from our defeat their a few years ago. They did to us in the last few minutes what we did to QPR in 2012.
If we defend well we have a 50% chance. City are 90 minutes away from a Champions league final on merit. Any score draw and we are in Milan. Madrid will be crapping it every time Navas & Sterling get the ball because they are lightning quick. Aguero needs to attack the space on front of the goalie. He could have had 2 last night doing that.
 
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