The battle for 4th place

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jimmygrimblesboots said:
Having calmed down a bit , this is probably the reality of the situation , the Rags are'nt that good , and we did play very well today , love the positivity.
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I half expected we'd get picked off and throughly beaten after the Real madrid defeat so not that positive! However we showed a lot of courage to respond like that but ran out of energy and the same old defensive frailties again. A bit unlucky. If we take that attitude into the Swansea game then I will be confident we can beat them. Obviously we need West Ham to take points off Utd and I think they will.
 
Marvin said:
I half expected we'd get picked off and throughly beaten after the Real madrid defeat so not that positive! However we showed a lot of courage to respond like that but ran out of energy and the same old defensive frailties again. A bit unlucky. If we take that attitude into the Swansea game then I will be confident we can beat them. Obviously we need West Ham to take points off Utd and I think they will.
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United seem fairly good at grinding out 1-0 wins when they had to. I can't believe it has come to hoping West Ham help us out after the 5/5 start we had.

We have accumulated 49 points in 32 games, taken 3 out of 9 against the bottom 3 and 6 out of 42 against the other top 7!

6 out of 42!!!!!
 
why did he wait so long to make a sub when Kelechi was clearly
Struggling. That shot he had in the 2nd half when the pass was on was awful and summed his day up. Should have been hooked at half time for me but saying that Sterling did zero when he came on again.
 
bert38 said:
No-its based on mathematical probability. If your argument was correct why put tempting odds on Utd?
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TBH i dont know much about how odds are adjusted prior to the event in real time, i always thought they were dictated by how the money is being placed so lets say lots of money goes on united tomorrow then there odds will shorten and ours will drift, i remember being told from some source many years ago that it was illegal for a bookmaker to tamper with odds artificially and odds had to adjust naturally according to the backing patterns but that could have been some bollox story
 
marco said:
TBH i dont know much about how odds are adjusted prior to the event in real time, i always thought they were dictated by how the money is being placed so lets say lots of money goes on united tomorrow then there odds will shorten and ours will drift, i remember being told from some source many years ago that it was illegal for a bookmaker to tamper with odds artificially and odds had to adjust naturally according to the backing patterns but that could have been some bollox story
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I'd say it's bollocks, there has to be an opening price before any money is placed after all.
 
aguero93:20 said:
I'd say it's bollocks, there has to be an opening price before any money is placed after all.
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That is what I would have thought too. I would go further and suggest that the real market occurs in the betting exchanges and that bookmakers will alter their own odds 'in competition' with the likes of Betfair just as supermarkets vary their prices in competition with each other. In fact, it's well known in the industry that bookmakers themselves use the exchanges to lay off large losing bets so in that way the weight of money creates it's own true market.
 
I'm no cynic but... said:
That is what I would have thought too. I would go further and suggest that the real market occurs in the betting exchanges and that bookmakers will alter their own odds 'in competition' with the likes of Betfair just as supermarkets vary their prices in competition with each other. In fact, it's well known in the industry that bookmakers themselves use the exchanges to lay off large losing bets so in that way the weight of money creates it's own true market.
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Exactly, look at Tote with horse racing. Anyway, wouldn't a prohibition on manipulating odds block the special offers the bookmakers regularly do?
 
almir said:
yep, liverpool will go to CL. We'd be in EL regardless of League Cup win.
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And are 5th lowest after todays point so guaranteed no play off (as cup win only did have attached) and straight into the groups seeded from mid/late September.

So in that sense better than a 4 th place CL play off in August. Best we can get now unless Arsenal lose to Villa at home!!!
 
deano ou812 said:
The irony we are to get one of the top coaches/manager in football and we look like failing to achieve top 4 for champions league football could only happen to us typical city ...
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We've ruined many a player down the years, it's about time we started ruining managers!!
 
Bournemouth owner is a Big Blue so i wouldnt rule them out getting a draw final day its been that kind of season.. KEEP the FAITH..
 
Of course, we can hope that EUFA find a reason to expel one of the other English CL qualifiers this year and they let 5th in instead. :)

Must...not...grasp....straws.
 
marco said:
TBH i dont know much about how odds are adjusted prior to the event in real time, i always thought they were dictated by how the money is being placed so lets say lots of money goes on united tomorrow then there odds will shorten and ours will drift, i remember being told from some source many years ago that it was illegal for a bookmaker to tamper with odds artificially and odds had to adjust naturally according to the backing patterns but that could have been some bollox story
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Weight of money will cause odds to shorten but it is based in probability, and as others say its mostly dictated by the exchanges and the 'wisdom of crowds'.
 
Here are the updated possibilities and it's no longer in our own hands:
Lowest we can realistically finish is 5th as West Ham are 16 goals worse off than us.
Rags win both and we're 5th unless we win at Swansea and Villa win at t'Emirates in which case we'll be 4th and Arse 5th.
Rags get 4 points - we're 4th if we win at Swansea, and third if we win at Swansea and Villa win at t'Emirates. Rags would be 5th. However we're 5th if we fail to win at Swansea.
Rags get three points - we're 4th if we win at Swansea, and third if we win at Swansea and Villa win at t'Emirates. Rags would be 5th. A draw at Swansea should be sufficient but we'll be biting our fingernails down to the elbows every time Swansea attack.
Rags get fewer than three points - we're third or fourth.
 
East Level 2 said:
Here are the updated possibilities and it's no longer in our own hands:
Lowest we can realistically finish is 5th as West Ham are 16 goals worse off than us.
Rags win both and we're 5th unless we win at Swansea and Villa win at t'Emirates in which case we'll be 4th and Arse 5th.
Rags get 4 points - we're 4th if we win at Swansea, and third if we win at Swansea and Villa win at t'Emirates. Rags would be 5th. However we're 5th if we fail to win at Swansea.
Rags get three points - we're 4th if we win at Swansea, and third if we win at Swansea and Villa win at t'Emirates. Rags would be 5th. A draw at Swansea should be sufficient but we'll be biting our fingernails down to the elbows every time Swansea attack.
Rags get fewer than three points - we're third or fourth.
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Thanks for this.

It appears the key game is Tuesday night.
 
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