EU referendum

[AlgarveBlu]

I really don't think the two are comparable. In the general election you didn't have a load of shit scared Ex Pats thinking that they would be kicked out of Spain if either side won. The Scottish vote will also be a factor as the EU was not on their agenda last time. Also we didn't have a biased BBC pushing one side and trying it's hardest to give us the impression that it's impartial. So I don't think there are any polls that we can look back at and see clues. Look at other football forums and the vote is mainly to stay so it's about as clear as mud I'm afraid. Look at the Liverpool poll and they asked how people living outside the UK would vote and just about all of them said they would vote to stay. The Ex Pats are on the whole terrified of an independent Britain.

Some good points there but don't believe that he ex-pat vote will be all pro remain and you need to remember that most of them won't even get their shit registered to vote - I've spoken to a load last Friday and the ones eligible to vote were half half but they all had in common is they couldn't work out how to do it (couldn't be arsed basically) - you'll also get a different picture from expats outside the eu - I know ealing's not a good example of that.

On the football forums I would say I have seen way more polls leaning to out than in, most of the London clubs (millwall surprisingly in the high 80s :-)) to get better diversity you can see the leave vote prevailing highly on the likes of the armed forces website, farmers website, cycling, golf, camping, fishing all the car clubs you name it - naturally the big student forum is well in front on remain but just reading the reasons why shows they shouldn't be allowed to vote until they've had at least a few years of life experiences.

I've been surprised at the reaction as well in the last 5 question time debates where the claps definitely seem louder for the leave arguments and last nights session in Aberdeen was surprisingly vocal on the leave but not as much as the ones held in England. Saying all that I think the remain will have it though - it's hard to expect your average joe blogs in the street to get past a daily barrage of fear from everyone.

 

[Monkfish]

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/05/10/report-bbc-displays-clear-significant-anti-brexit-bias/

more bullshit. You may think the BBC is bias because it does not copy what The Sun says, but that actually makes it independent - do you see now?

 

[Damocles]

Do see the EU as a stable platform to do this ?

No, I think the EU is neither stable or particularly honest.

However this reminds me of the problem City and UEFA have about the ECA clubs and their little clique. You can't fight the war from the outside, you've got to be in the cartel to smash it.

There's a long list of reforms I'd love to see the EU make but we can't direct it towards those if we're not a member. Instead of backing out of a bad institution, we should attempt to make it better.

The EU has the potential for great things as does the UN. A coalition of Governments across continents could be a massive step forward for shared resources, shared culture and shared ethics if executed properly. But this can't happen unless we can sort out the EU and make it the Government that we all wish it to be first.

 

[CityStu]

more bullshit. You may think the BBC is bias because it does not copy what The Sun says, but that actually makes it independent - do you see now?

Which bits are bullshit? I don't particularly think the BBC is pro-Labour, but it's been very pro-Remain and has treated Trump with ridicule, which isn't what I want in an independent broadcaster - I want facts, not opinions.

You have to admit that those weightings towards panel guests and audiences in favour of staying are pretty ridiculous when you consider polling has never been nearly so one sided.

 

[YPhrunts]

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/05/10/report-bbc-displays-clear-significant-anti-brexit-bias/

Thanks for the link Stu. The bias is more surreptitious than just "relative bias by omission".
If you notice, particularly on Newsnight, the question posed to Remainers is always primed for the appropriate response whereas the question posed to the Brexiters is usually aggressive and aimed to expose.
Newsnight last night could have been broadcast from Zimbabwe with Robert Mugabe asking the questions it was that blatant. And Evan Davis the main interviewer has a habit of talking over and Brexit speaker if the answer is not to his liking so that you cannot hear the full reply whereas he nearly always lets the Remain people complete without talking over them. It's that sort of subtle bias that fools some people. I wrote to the BBC and complained about it because Davis was deliberately pushing his own view forward at the expense of any Brexit view and he's not there to do that. BBC impartial my arse.

 

[Monkfish]

Which bits are bullshit? I don't particularly think the BBC is pro-Labour, but it's been very pro-Remain and has treated Trump with ridicule, which isn't what I want in an independent broadcaster - I want facts, not opinions.

You have to admit that those weightings towards panel guests and audiences in favour of staying are pretty ridiculous when you consider polling has never been nearly so one sided.

do you listen to Radio4 at all? (I know the answer so don't worry)
you cannot move without hearing Boz, Fadge, IDS etc, and I can promise you the last 3 nights headlines on the 5pm have been lead by an 'out' story - feel free to check

No I did a quick google search for 'Nigel Farage BBC R4 Today interview' and guess what - hit after hit of Farage appearance - now according to your 'story' only 120 anti EU voices have been on - looks like all of them were Nigel then

You really need to think more, you are too gullible. Think about how you can massage those stats - what constitutes an EU story? Not all EU stories have an in/out angle

ffs I wouldn't let most people vote for xfactor contestants never mind the future of the country...

You want a balance of the EU question - the only place is the BBC

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

do you listen to Radio4 at all? (I know the answer so don't worry)
you cannot move without hearing Boz, Fadge, IDS etc, and I can promise you the last 3 nights headlines on the 5pm have been lead by an 'out' story - feel free to check

No I did a quick google search for 'Nigel Farage BBC R4 Today interview' and guess what - hit after hit of Farage appearance - now according to your 'story' only 120 anti EU voices have been on - looks like all of them were Nigel then

You really need to think more, you are too gullible. Think about how you can massage those stats - what constitutes an EU story? Not all EU stories have an in/out angle

ffs I wouldn't let most people vote for xfactor contestants never mind the future of the country...

You want a balance of the EU question - the only place is the BBC

There are plentry of places on the earth that agree with your sentiment about not allowing people to vote. You would not even let people vote on the factor result if it was up to you .

I am sure you will find what you are looking for in Pyongyang

 

[hilts]

Pretty much what I said several pages ago. If we leave and join the EEA / EFTA, we'll end up with all the EU rules and no say in the formulation of them plus we'll be in Schengen. Worst of all worlds.

We won't be in schengen of that I'm pretty certain, no party would win a general election if they agreed to it.

 

[YPhrunts]

No, I think the EU is neither stable or particularly honest.

However this reminds me of the problem City and UEFA have about the ECA clubs and their little clique. You can't fight the war from the outside, you've got to be in the cartel to smash it.

There's a long list of reforms I'd love to see the EU make but we can't direct it towards those if we're not a member. Instead of backing out of a bad institution, we should attempt to make it better.

The EU has the potential for great things as does the UN. A coalition of Governments across continents could be a massive step forward for shared resources, shared culture and shared ethics if executed properly. But this can't happen unless we can sort out the EU and make it the Government that we all wish it to be first.

While I respect you view I can't let it pass without comment. We all saw what Cameron's attempt to reform a minor issue in Brussels achieved...sweet FA. The reason is that he was trying to steer a Treaty enshrined in Law to his advantage which was an impossible task and his minor 'so called' reform will be voted on after we have had our referendum and it will be thrown out. It has to be. You can't just meddle with a Treaty agreed by 27 member states and expect to stand outside it. Look at Greece's attempt to bent the Fiscal Pact also enshrined in Treaty Law. It got nowhere. So why you believe that we can reform the EU from within is a misunderstanding of how the EU works.
The Common Agricultural Policy is also a Treaty enshrined in law and will never be reformed. The EU is beyond reform. The only way is to get out and negotiate from a position that does not shackle us with legality.

 

[CityStu]

do you listen to Radio4 at all? (I know the answer so don't worry)
you cannot move without hearing Boz, Fadge, IDS etc, and I can promise you the last 3 nights headlines on the 5pm have been lead by an 'out' story - feel free to check

No I did a quick google search for 'Nigel Farage BBC R4 Today interview' and guess what - hit after hit of Farage appearance - now according to your 'story' only 120 anti EU voices have been on - looks like all of them were Nigel then

You really need to think more, you are too gullible. Think about how you can massage those stats - what constitutes an EU story? Not all EU stories have an in/out angle

ffs I wouldn't let most people vote for xfactor contestants never mind the future of the country...

You want a balance of the EU question - the only place is the BBC

I like some of R4's comedy shows but rarely listen live.

All of the appearances being Farage is one of the issues. His isn't the flagship Out campaign and he (and UKIP) does divide opinion somewhat because their campaign is very immigration centric. There are plenty of people voting Out who won't be factoring immigration at all and would never consider voting for UKIP.

I agree that stats are very easy to tweak to suit your point (I do it for a living) but it's very difficult to tweak them to a 97.5% bias without some genuine bias existing. Some of the clear facts in the article (such as the 18:1 In/Out ratio in the 2013 Newsnight program) aren't just made up.

I get my news from a variety of sources but a lot of the UK population (perhaps even a majority) will get theirs solely from the BBC and that means they have a responsibility to be impartial, which I don't believe they are. It's perhaps more balanced than most, but it isn't equal.

 

[YPhrunts]

And today's scare story comes from Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary fund.

Yes this is the same woman due to stand trial on corruption charges over a multimillion-euro government payment to a controversial tycoon who supported former president Nicolas Sarkozy.
Lagarde has been accused of “negligence by a person in a position of public authority” over the award of more than €400m to Bernard Tapie.

Does she really think she carries any clout in the referendum debate with a CV like hers?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...gation-in-400m-fraud-and-corruption-case.html

 

[EalingBlue2]

In other words you can't defend it and the way TTIP is being "debated" so you deflect.

Pathetic.

No in other words I think it is someone being smart, I don't get quite as outraged about stunts clearly. I am not sure why on an EU thread either as I don't recall particular transparency on the TPP anywhere either and if the EU doesn't get a good deal then there is not much hope for the UK anyway

 

[blueonblue]

The EU has the potential for great things as does the UN. A coalition of Governments across continents could be a massive step forward for shared resources, shared culture and shared ethics if executed properly. But this can't happen unless we can sort out the EU and make it the Government that we all wish it to be first.

No you misunderstand me, when I ask do you think it stable I mean as in still remain as is with 28 members, forget for the time being the expansion plans.
For me Greece is a dead duck waiting to happen, the effects of which will fall mainly on the Germans toes, not only will they try and share the damage but their voters are near enough at also wanting out to cause real problems, the Italians as covered in the piece from the telegraph posted simply can not take the hit, France is no better.

There is no shared culture or ethics even within the existing EU, rather their actions have caused a surge in nationalism in Poland, Hungary, Austria, Sweden, even Holland for f*ck sake an you will struggle to find a more liberal country in the world.

When I say stable thats as in will it still be there in anywhere near its present form

 

[Pino]

Did anyone hear Cameron use the word “Common Purpose” the other day? It is a sinister EU organisation which has infiltrated British life:

 

[EalingBlue2]

That fact is that Britain may by the keystone of the EU falling, with all the other members having majorities of people wanting out.

The upshot of that is that any figures stating the UK would be harmed in the long term could well be bollocks. A Brexit could lead to an EU that was originally envisaged, with free trade rather than a Federalist nightmare.

It could be that or it could be economic chaos for a decade and tens of millions more out of work and countries fragmenting. A break up of a bloc like this isn't happy Chappy beds of roses

 

[YPhrunts]

I like some of R4's comedy shows but rarely listen live.

All of the appearances being Farage is one of the issues. His isn't the flagship Out campaign and he (and UKIP) does divide opinion somewhat because their campaign is very immigration centric. There are plenty of people voting Out who won't be factoring immigration at all and would never consider voting for UKIP.

I agree that stats are very easy to tweak to suit your point (I do it for a living) but it's very difficult to tweak them to a 97.5% bias without some genuine bias existing. Some of the clear facts in the article (such as the 18:1 In/Out ratio in the 2013 Newsnight program) aren't just made up.

I get my news from a variety of sources but a lot of the UK population (perhaps even a majority) will get theirs solely from the BBC and that means they have a responsibility to be impartial, which I don't believe they are. It's perhaps more balanced than most, but it isn't equal.

That's a very interesting observation. It may be true at the moment because people believe they have the luxury of political 'choice' but that choice will soon become limited. Are the Labour Brexiters going to vote Labour next time if Brexit was/is a burning issue with them? Will the disaffected Tories vote for their party if Brexit was/is a central issue for them? Ukip could make massive gains at the next election if we are still in the EU and I would be very surprised if it didn't.

 

[EalingBlue2]

In other words you can't defend it and the way TTIP is being "debated" so you deflect.

Pathetic.

Being a self confessed economics intellect , what are your thoughts on TTIP and its impact, what do you think the effect of it failing will be Or it's coming into being? Do you advise clients to publicise all negotiations to shareholders?

 

[EalingBlue2]

That's a very interesting observation. It may be true at the moment because people believe they have the luxury of political 'choice' but that choice will soon become limited. Are the Labour Brexiters going to vote Labour next time if Brexit was/is a burning issue with them? Will the disaffected Tories vote for their party if Brexit was/is a central issue for them? Ukip could make massive gains at the next election if we are still in the EU and I would be very surprised if it didn't.

That's what everyone said for 6 months prior to the last election, will it really be different as if there is going to be short term dramatic effect it is much more likely if the vote is change not if the vote is status quo?

 

[Tugay One Cup]

don't particularly think the BBC is pro-Labour, but it's been very pro-Remain and has treated Trump with ridicule, which isn't what I want in an independent broadcaster

Trump ridicules himself, that's his shtick. To not ridicule him would be to not present him or to portray him in a totally different way which would, in turn, indicate bias.

 

[YPhrunts]

That's what everyone said for 6 months prior to the last election, will it really be different as if there is going to be short term dramatic effect it is much more likely if the vote is change not if the vote is status quo?

Please translate.