As far as I'm concerned, we face an ever growing economic superpower in China (and America isn't going away), and a new form of terrorism - currently from Islamic extremists. For those two reasons, I believe we are going to need our allies more than ever - for collective bargaining, shared intelligence, and quite possibly military and emergency services support.
I'm under no illusions that each nation in Europe has a quite varied set of customs and cultures - we are not alike, but in comparison to the Middle East / Asia / Africa - we have far more in common.
Then I look to a much MUCH longer future and ask 'where will be in 100 years?' - and I think we're almost certainly going to have to come together in come form in the future - either we're going to converge, or diverge, right?
The EU has a whole bunch of issues, it's not an easy task to keep the group together, but there seems to be couple of things that the 'out' guys are hanging their hat on -
1) Greater control of our borders
Hmmm, well, even without the free movement of EU residents, we've not been keeping track of people coming and going. Many people are arriving legitimately, but not choosing to stay here (illegitimately) and we've done a very poor job and rounding up those people overstaying. That's not an EU failing, that's our own failing and it's been going on across multiple governments.
On top of that, 'control' doesn't come for free. We are going to have to check every train / plane / car / bike / lorry at the borders in order to deter illegal immigration. We don't get that control for free - it's going to cost a fortune to get border security up to scratch
2) We'll be governed by elected politicians
Only 66% bothered to vote at the last general election (and that was considered a good turnout!) - suddenly we're concerned about who governs and their mandate to do so?
A large percentage of our laws are common law - developed over time by the courts. They aren't generated by elected politicians.
3) We'll be better off because we can make our own choices
We aren't living in a bubble. Our destiny as a nation isn't just down to our own choices - we are massively at the mercy of other nations whether we are in or out of the EU, but within the EU, we can (in theory) at least benefit from collective bargaining.
There's also an assumption that being out of the EU means we will make BETTER / SMARTER decisions and thus prosper - but that's rather arrogant. There's nothing to say we are any more politically astute than France or Germany, or that our foreign policies are smarter than theirs. We've been quite insistent of military actions across the globe, when our counterparts have expressed caution. We've also let our manufacturing industry dwindle and our natural resources are diminishing - which is not ideal for a nation trying to 'go it alone'.
4) Immigration of EU citizens is crippling us.
Ok - I accept that concern - but that's not making EU membership a bad thing, it's making that single aspect a bad thing. In which case, let's try and find a way to resolve that issue from within the EU. And let us not forget, many Brits are working or studying abroad under the same freedoms. It's not all a one way street, whatever you decide.
5) The EU is corrupt and wasteful.
Very probably. I think precisely the same of UK governments though.
Do you mean me....? Surely not!True but I'm including the Brexiters in this forum as well as Gove / Bojo mob lol!
It's not so odd. If you're happy with the status quo, you're less likely to be motivated enough to get out and debate on forums and take part in polls. The very act of being involved in these debates, applies a filter that skews the results in favour of the Leavers.
I expect a significant swing back to the incumbent position (i.e. remain) in the actual referendum, just as there's always a significant swing back to the incumbent party in general elections. Unless the "challenger" is very significantly ahead by polling day, they always lose.
I think some on here who presume Leave voters are going to suddenly bottle it are in for a surprise.
Agreed, I just cringe with embarrassment for him now - his campaign manager obviously wants to leave the eu
.
Somebody has got to protect the people from themselves! ;)
Agreed. It needs to be recognised, acknowledged, accepted call it what you will, that the Brexiters are NOT a political party and as such are unable to develop policies It will be up to Cameron and the incumbent conservative government (possibly headed by Boris) to negotiate.An out vote wouldn't give the Leavers a blank cheque to negotiate any deal with the EU, no matter how bad that deal is. The deal would still have to be approved by parliament. I cant see how the Remainers could just block a deal without a second referendum. But if Boris is leading the negotiations I could see it ending up with parliament calling a second referendum.
Do you mean me....? Surely not!
Careful.... Gideon is a True Blue don't you know?No not you BigJo!
Anyway, I'm keeping my joker in my pocket and won't be revealing Gove and Bojo as rags until next week lol!
You would get phenomenal odds on that outcome if you fancied a flutter at the bookies seeing as they still have IN odds on for victory
It is highly unlikely that the convoluted conditions required to have a general election will be met if there is a Brexit.
Fair play Tim, but in all fairness the "take the medicine" answer came in your second post, anyway, that aside.
As to the question of Gove and Bojo vs Call me Dave and Gideon. Put a between couldn't you fagpaper them.... rearrange these words to make a common phrase or saying.
Careful.... Gideon is a True Blue don't you know?
For anyone that may have doubted that remain MPs would do this, see the link below
The questions I have are...?
1) Are they entitled to do this?
2) If they did it would it be legally binding? They are there to represent the public, nothing more nothing less, if and its a big IF the public do vote to leave can they legally go against public wishes?
This does smell like there is a bit of panic and contingency planning going on. I would be particularly interested in the views of the BM Remainers about this, notably about, why do you think they're taking thus stance and quite simply, is it fair and democratic?
Surely they [the Government] need be more focused on working out how we will move forward rather than concentrating on retrospectively fighting or challenging a [public] defeat. Didn't Ireland and Greece do something similar and reject their referendum results on recent EU votes?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36457120
Agreed.... but a very difficult arguement to win if over 50% of the electorate that voted, voted to leave.You seem to be under the misguided belief that MPs are delegates. Ie they are told to do things by their electorate. They are not. They are representatives and as such can do what they think is best, even if their constituents disagree. Hence the free vote on capital punishment always being lost.
same as the ones playing in countries not in the EU ??Oh now here's a question...
What the heck happens with players from the EU playing in the UK?
I don't think the impact on the EU has been fully gauged. They will be in serious trouble and I very much doubt the EU will survive in its current form. We will be an influencer in the direction the EU takes after we leave, not directly maybe, but our exit is going to create a massive void and they will have masses of work to do to fill it, if indeed they can.So, let me get this right...
We're in a 'club' (the EU) and we don't all get along, but put up with each other because we think there's a common benefit...
Then one of the lads says 'I don't want to be a member any more, I think you're all a bunch of wasters'
Then two weeks later, that lad is supposed to negotiate individually with each of those nations to cut itself a better deal?
Yes, we have goods they want, and they have goods we want... but we import more than we export and there's more of them. I'm really not convinced we'd be holding the upper hand!
Ah, some will say - but we can now negotiate with America or China and cut our own lucrative deals.
Hmmmm - those are two extremely large markets / economic powers, we've just left the EU and are in an 'unstable' condition and we're going to renegotiate a BETTER deal? - dream on.
Every other nation on earth will know that after an EU exit, we'll be 'needing' some results - that doesn't strengthen us, it weakens us. Furthermore, who is going to cut us a better deal and risk losing the far larger market - the EU? It's like undercutting the deal you have with your major customer to please a smaller customer? - business suicide.
Of course, there will be SOME wins - businesses that couldn't sell successfully to the EU could now sell to us, but they aren't going to be improve the quality and safety of their products, they're going to pleased they don't have to meet EU regulations.
It wouldn't just be a case of Gove & Johnson v Cameron & Osborne. At the moment 23 out of 30 cabinet ministers support Remain. If Gove or Johnson became PM they would surely want the support of the cabinet during the negotiations. Particularly in the "Big" departments that would be most affected by Brexit. That would necessitate replacing a number of Remain ministers with Leavers. Fox and Davis would probably be two, not sure where the rest come from. Inevitably it would mean that the government would move further to the right.
Same as every other country in the world, you issue work permits.Oh now here's a question...
What the heck happens with players from the EU playing in the UK?