EU referendum

[mcfc1632]

True but I'm including the Brexiters in this forum as well as Gove / Bojo mob lol!

You have offered great input to the debate - but just an aside............

Your more recent posts seem to echo the 'general Remain group' - where there seems to be a movement from them being wholly confident to a sickening realisation that just perhaps........ This leads to an increasing measure of desperation - including mis-quoting.

As an example - Re the EU being responsible for terrorism - what I heard Gove say was that a natural consequence of the free movement policy was increased vulnerability - was there another speech he gave?

 

[CityStu]

If the EU without us does not cope then everyone of the worst case scenarios coming out will manifest. Of Britains top 7 export markets 5 are EU and one is de facto EU in trading terms. If the EU tanks hundreds of thousands of jobs are At very real risk and if the EU tanks and that sends Southern Europe more widely into a tailspin then hundreds of billions more will be required to bail out our banks.

Brexit seem to use the EU won't cope without us as a badge of honour, if they are right it could harm Britaim for a generation

The bold bit is the case currently. If we leave and the EU tanks, we will be free to trade with the rest of the world on our own terms, without having to wait years for trade agreements to be ratified by 28 member states. No reason we can't buy wine from Chile and cars from Japan if the EU alternatives are spiralling out of control.

 

[cibaman]

The vote is whether or not we Leave or Remain in the EU is it not? I get the single market being different to the EU but, surely it's within the gift of Parliamentary MPs to decide if we will stay in the single market, that will be one of the points of negotiation between the Uk and the EU.

Isn't that the point? If we vote to leave the EU, parliament will have to approve numerous bills to make that happen. It seems that the Remainers are laying down a marker that they would regard remaining in the single market as essential, even if, for example, it meant agreeing to the continuing free movement of labour.

 

[mcfc1632]

No trick question, it's a fact. The pro-remain MPs are considering using their parliamentary majority to overturn the result if Leave win. The article is by James Landale on the BBC website. It is not a random blog. I'm interested in MF's view on that... did you comment earlier, if not yours would be appreciated too.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36457120

All the points you make are valid as is the fact that our economy is bigger than Norway, Switzerland and Canada combined, so we will have some cards to play at the negotiating table, maybe not all aces but some decent ones.

Again I think that without our money and support the EU will be too badly wounded to take the position of magnificence the inners keep referring to.

Not sure why people cannot see (and understand) the sense you speak re negotiations. We will have 2 years (or shorter or longer depending on a number of factors) to conduct those negotiations and the outcome will depend on how we prepare for and conduct these negotiations.

The Remainers assume all the worst possible outcomes - as they seem to have when 'loading' the inputs into their economic models/forecasts - but that is not how negotiations work. Good job the Remainers on here will not be leading those negotiations.

The reality is/will be that both parties have strengths and weaknesses as they prepare for the negotiations and the outcomes will likely not be so 'black and white' as to copy the exact same outcome of a previous settlement.

Having read back today all the posts from yesterday I do sense a change in the 'tone' of the Remainers - I think that they are starting to get increasingly worried and 'cock sure' is starting to shift to nervousness.

 

[Gelsons Dad]

Anything that requires free movement wont wash.
Also I think some people are taking the Idea that the UK leaving will mean the EU tanks a little too far.
Firstly, without any trade agreement we will be free to trade with the EU under WTO most favoured nation status. This means we will have tariffs no better or worse than the EUs current top 3 non EU trading partners. The EU won't tank under those terms and neither will the UK.
Secondly, More likely is that the EU agrees free trade without free movement like it has with Turkey for example.

Finally any movement by the EU which induces further economic stress would lead to other nations leaving. This would inevitably lead to fracturing and possible break up. At this time the UK would be free to immediately make free trade agreements with any nation leaving the EU leaving those who remain in at a disadvantage.

You cannot describe what will happen in binary terms because it will be a fluid situation, in these circumstance those with most freedom can act quickly and secure best outcomes.

The UK leaving put's economic stress on the EU which is slow and cumbersome, it will empower other nations to take back control and in the end will be better for Europe.

 

[mcfc1632]

No they don't.

By 'access' he means internal access in order to benefit from the tax reductions and existing trade agreements with many other nations, as well as protection measures.
America, China etc can trade with the EU, of course they can, in that respect they have 'access', but it's not the same sort of access he's discussing.
The UK will still be able to trade with the EU regardless, just 'outside the club' and not 'inside it' - so we'd pay additional taxes etc - unless we somehow negotiate something special.

Which we should be able to achieve - unless the EU's negotiating position is wilful and demonstrates a 'cutting nose off to spite face' attitude.

There will be 'accomodations' resulting from the negotiations

 

[mcfc1632]

No , not automatic access ,they have to negotiate and have their application ratified by the EU.
And then they have to meet the conditions , and abide by the rules and regulations applied to them by the EU, if they wish to trade with the single market.

'Agreed' with would be a better way to explain - most Remainers make it sound as if negotiations is a 1-way street with the EU being some omnipotent body

 

[AlgarveBlu]

Did I say 60+? Yes, I agree then I was being overly optimistic - I think it will be closer than that.

The numbers of young people who have failed to register will narrow the gap too, given their higher than average propensity to favour staying in.

Are you aware of the numbers that have registered to vote in that category?

I had a suspicion from DC's dodgy tv performances last week where he looked rattled that he may have already been privy to the data from the electoral commission but I have no idea if this data is readily available to the public or government. I know they will have coefficients on the polls based on certain age groups voting and naturally a low registration number would not be good for DC.

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

No they don't.

By 'access' he means internal access in order to benefit from the tax reductions and existing trade agreements with many other nations, as well as protection measures.
America, China etc can trade with the EU, of course they can, in that respect they have 'access', but it's not the same sort of access he's discussing.
The UK will still be able to trade with the EU regardless, just 'outside the club' and not 'inside it' - so we'd pay additional taxes etc - unless we somehow negotiate something special.

The Europe does not have a trade agreement with any of those countries mate. It trades with them though.....

 

[mcfc1632]

Hi mate....no expert as you can tell! ;) but there is alot of difference between trading with the single market and being part of it...becuase of our links with the EU already and the amount of export we sell to them....we need free movement of goods, people and capital as well.....completely different agreement and with those things comes freedom of movement....If we want to pay the extra tariffs a country like America pay....you can forget about ever getting a better deal than what we have now......"outs" want you to believe you can have your cake and eat it.....thats just isnt going to happen...

.............it is not all 'gravy' - there are cons as well as pros of being in the club

 

[AlgarveBlu]

I did not have to enter my name - assume it is linked to my device

currently 82% leave

The site states:

Poll is open from now until the referendum day.

• It is restricted to UK Internet users only.

• No registration is necessary (unless someone from the same location or same computer wishes to also vote, or you wish to change your vote).

• Registration will allow you to change your vote at any time, and it also logs you into our debate and comments sections.

Features

• The poll has three views of the results - bar chart, pie chart, and a line graph to see how the poll evolves between now and the referendum day.
• You can view the real-time vote counts for each option by clicking the line graph icon and hovering over a data point.
• The poll has a share function that will share the “live” poll result in a time stamped image to your social network. Try it out!

Thanks for that - seems more bona fide than any of the other media outlets then - you know something's wrong when the Mirror has 58% on leave.

Not sure what to make of that then as it,s a very high sample but maybe it just means brexiteers actually seek out these sites.

I suppose it's still open to abuse by setting up multiple IP addresses - I wouldn't put it past ukip...

 

[mcfc1632]

Like I'm telling you... All is not well, THEY NEED US!

http://www.express.co.uk/finance/ci...EEDS-Britain-in-the-EU-or-euro-could-go-UNDER

They are also starting to sound concerned - rather than the offensive arrogance shown to date - should have shown some concern during the 'negotiations'.

The ECB dismissive comment criticising German ministers - "....I do not answer to them...." is an example of the federalist attitude that we need to recognise is at the heart of the United States of Europe project

 

[FanchesterCity]

The Europe does not have a trade agreement with any of those countries mate. It trades with them though.....

I said Europe has trade agreements with many OTHER nations - which you get automatic access to if an EU member.

 

[Monkfish]

Odds were 1/6 on remain and over 4/1 to leave only a couple of weeks ago - the money being placed is shifting substantially

doubt it, it was 87%+ money going on leave a few weeks ago

 

[mcfc1632]

Nails it.

I think that very Leave voter should ensure that video is shared with every undecided voter that they know

 

[FanchesterCity]

Which we should be able to achieve - unless the EU's negotiating position is wilful and demonstrates a 'cutting nose off to spite face' attitude.

There will be 'accomodations' resulting from the negotiations

The EU will be in a very tenuous position though - if we get quite favourable terms, then that will lead other members to think 'we might as well quit too, because we can get decent terms by being out of the EU!'. Very tricky for the EU this as they'll already be wary of us initiating a domino effect.

I suspect they thought the UK public would stay in - which they still may do, but the threat of leaving is now more than a serious threat, it could even be likely. It might be a game of brinksmanship that works out badly for both parties - there's not necessarily a winner from this.
One thing though - it's 'possible' the UK could benefit from an exit (not my view, but it's possible) - but it's very difficult to see how the EU can benefit from us leaving. So the only realistic outcomes are:
UK win : lose EU
UK lose : lose EU

 

[TRUE BLUE NO1]

Not sure why people cannot see (and understand) the sense you speak re negotiations. We will have 2 years (or shorter or longer depending on a number of factors) to conduct those negotiations and the outcome will depend on how we prepare for and conduct these negotiations.

The Remainers assume all the worst possible outcomes - as they seem to have when 'loading' the inputs into their economic models/forecasts - but that is not how negotiations work. Good job the Remainers on here will not be leading those negotiations.

The reality is/will be that both parties have strengths and weaknesses as they prepare for the negotiations and the outcomes will likely not be so 'black and white' as to copy the exact same outcome of a previous settlement.

Having read back today all the posts from yesterday I do sense a change in the 'tone' of the Remainers - I think that they are starting to get increasingly worried and 'cock sure' is starting to shift to nervousness.

You right I am worried mate....worried that we going to make the biggest mistake ever for our economy....Can you tell me now what deal we get with the EU if we leave?...dont worry I know the answer!.... so saying we'll be better off leaving just has no weight behind it.....Your right they will have to negotiate those agreements but rational thinking would tell us that any deal is not going to be as good as what we have now....Thats the reality....EU are not going to agree a better deal for us than they would for their own members....I worry because I hear people(like when I went to get my hair cut this week) say...."I'm voting out because Polish are coming over and taking our jobs" What many "outs" dont understand is the fact that any agreement we have to make, will go hand in hand with free movement......so voting to stop a Polish person taking that guys job is just laughable and so misguided...and so completely wrong to the actual reality.....some(like that guy in the hairdressers)voting "out" just dont understand how the process works or just dont want to know because they have this idea that running away from the EU will all of a sudden, make everything better......thats why I worry, not becuase I am in anyway questioning my view to "stay".......I have learnt so much over the last week from being on this thread.....and it pushed me to find out more about the risks and rewards to leaving.....after lots of research it has only confirmed I'm making the right decision when I vote "stay" and I couldnt have said that one week ago.......

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

I said Europe has trade agreements with many OTHER nations - which you get automatic access to if an EU member.

Name some of them and the benefits.

Your post was talking about the biggest trading countries like the USA, China, Russia etc.

If someone rings me up and instructs me from America I charge them the same as if someone in Germany rings me. There are no obstacles.

 

[Monkfish]

They are also starting to sound concerned - rather than the offensive arrogance shown to date - should have shown some concern during the 'negotiations'.

The ECB dismissive comment criticising German ministers - "....I do not answer to them...." is an example of the federalist attitude that we need to recognise is at the heart of the United States of Europe project

One good thing about the referendum vote, which will be to remain but probably no more than 55-45 in favour will be a warning to the EU - I think they may well become a little better at listening

 

[mcfc1632]

doubt it, it was 87%+ money going on leave a few weeks ago

You may doubt it - but you are utterly wrong - I was stating a fact