EU referendum

[Mike N]

If UK leave I think it could be the start of the end for the European Union. There are other countries who are also not happy with their lot inside the club. This is why I was astonished when Cameron came back with next to nothing after his desperate talks with the EU. The EU need us to vote to stay IMO.

 

[mcfc1632]

If we leave, the EU will have suffered a huge blow, but that probably doesn't help us anyway. If the EU collapses, or even just starts to go into meltdown, struggling EU businesses (many of whom have investments in the UK) is still likely to be a negative for us.

If the big boys in Europe started to get into trouble (e.g. after an EU collapse and every nation for themselves), you then have a situation of which external countries (or rather businesses in those countries) can best exploit their troubles. We'd then be competing with the USA and China to rape and pillage them. Not good news for us.

We need a healthy EU, in or out.

So we should stay in and be the crutch as it fails more slowly? I would rather be already out and ahead of the game in dealing with other countries that be dragged down into inevitable demise

 

[Monkfish]

You may doubt it - but you are utterly wrong - I was stating a fact

blimey I've just checked and your correct, the money being placed has changed substantially - before 87% of bets placed were backing leave, now 57% of bets are going on stay - seems all the professional gamblers are going to make a killing

I'm not sure thats the 'fact' you were looking for though? Facts and brexiteers dont mix well

 

[FanchesterCity]

I think that very Leave voter should ensure that video is shared with every undecided voter that they know

Except he doesn't mention that Germany's got a bigger economy than us, and they're in the EU.
Japan has a huge manufacturing industry with goods to sell (it dwarfs ours).
He doesn't mention that most American businesses are American, Japanese business are Japanese and German businesses are German - whilst the UK's businesses are mostly foreign owned.
We may have a large economy, but it doesn't mean all our GDP is all for ourselves - it's not.

 

[mcfc1632]

I agree completely EalingBlue....the EU wont cope argument only seems to strenghten the reasons to "stay".....every way you look, this feels more like self-harm.....I really must be missing something....because nothing about "leaving" makes any sense at all......

Again - just making conversations/observations - but your post here and the EB2's that you were replying to do seem to contain a level of 'Remainer concern' that a leave vote could win. Could I ask you and EB2 whether your confidence level in a Remain vote has increased/decreased it the last week or so/

 

[TRUE BLUE NO1]

Again - just making conversations/observations - but your post here and the EB2's that you were replying to do seem to contain a level of 'Remainer concern' that a leave vote could win. Could I ask you and EB2 whether your confidence level in a Remain vote has increased/decreased it the last week or so/

Hi mate....just posted a reply to you on the thread about why we "should" be concerned...

 

[FanchesterCity]

So we should stay in and be the crutch as it fails more slowly? I would rather be already out and ahead of the game in dealing with other countries that be dragged down into inevitable demise

If its failure is inevitable, we should absolutely get out early and get ahead of the game.
If it's struggling - it's a little more tricky - do you ride out the troubles for a longer term benefit, or just quit? (that's if you believe there's a longer term benefit to be had)
If it's doing well - then do you still think the UK could do better still outside of it?

The whole debate still hangs on people's perception of what the EU has done for us so far, what it's currently doing for us, and to a lesser extent what it could do for us in future. I say 'to a lesser extent' because most people seem to be discussing the here and now of the EU and the criticisms of it are in its current state, rather than any improved future version. That's not true of everybody but for a large number it is - particularly those opting to leave. They dislike the present situation, and assume a favourable future for the UK and a less favourable one for the EU - they generally don't believe in a favourable future within the EU. Very few are saying the EU will do well in future, but we'll do even better out of it.

 

[mcfc1632]

blimey I've just checked and your correct, the money being placed has changed substantially - before 87% of bets placed were backing leave, now 57% of bets are going on stay - seems all the professional gamblers are going to make a killing

I'm not sure thats the 'fact' you were looking for though? Facts and brexiteers dont mix well

What are you babbling about?

I stated a fact on what the odds were a couple of weeks ago - I actually posted that at the time. The source was Betfair. I also placed £210 on a leave vote at 5.1.

I stated that this has changed - it is 3.55 today - simply 2 facts

You stated earlier that you doubt it - you were/are utterly wrong as there is nothing wrong about my posts - simple facts

You always seem to twist in the wind

 

[mcfc1632]

Except he doesn't mention that Germany's got a bigger economy than us, and they're in the EU.
Japan has a huge manufacturing industry with goods to sell (it dwarfs ours).
He doesn't mention that most American businesses are American, Japanese business are Japanese and German businesses are German - whilst the UK's businesses are mostly foreign owned.
We may have a large economy, but it doesn't mean all our GDP is all for ourselves - it's not.

I can recognise your points are relevant - but having heard all sorts of rhetoric from the Remain campaign as part of Project fear - without any context being added to provide balance - I would not feel that the Leavers should need to dilute the strength of their messages by acting in a 'fairer' style than the Remainers

 

[cibaman]

Not sure why people cannot see (and understand) the sense you speak re negotiations. We will have 2 years (or shorter or longer depending on a number of factors) to conduct those negotiations and the outcome will depend on how we prepare for and conduct these negotiations.

The Remainers assume all the worst possible outcomes - as they seem to have when 'loading' the inputs into their economic models/forecasts - but that is not how negotiations work. Good job the Remainers on here will not be leading those negotiations.

The reality is/will be that both parties have strengths and weaknesses as they prepare for the negotiations and the outcomes will likely not be so 'black and white' as to copy the exact same outcome of a previous settlement.

Having read back today all the posts from yesterday I do sense a change in the 'tone' of the Remainers - I think that they are starting to get increasingly worried and 'cock sure' is starting to shift to nervousness.

Aren't the Leavers assuming all the best possible outcomes? Their stance seems to be that we can obtain a free trade deal with the EU AND avoid having to contribute to the budget or follow any of the directives such as free movement of labour.

If they win and then have to seriously negotiate with the EU, they too will have to make concessions. They will have to find a process for agreeing what the negotiating team's priorities are. Free trade or control of immigration? Who decides which is most important?

 

[Monkfish]

What are you babbling about?

I stated a fact on what the odds were a couple of weeks ago - I actually posted that at the time. The source was Betfair. I also placed £210 in a leave vote at 5.1.

I stated that this has changed - it is 3.55 today - simply 2 facts

You stated earlier that you doubt it - you were/are utterly wrong as there is nothing wrong about my posts - simple facts

You always seem to twist in the wind

You posted that the money being placed is 'shifting substantially'

What did you mean by that? If by that you meant that there is a huge shift in the betting towards remain then I apologise, you were entirely correct

 

[CityStu]

Aren't the Leavers assuming all the best possible outcomes? Their stance seems to be that we can obtain a free trade deal with the EU AND avoid having to contribute to the budget or follow any of the directives such as free movement of labour.

If they win and then have to seriously negotiate with the EU, they too will have to make concessions. They will have to find a process for agreeing what the negotiating team's priorities are. Free trade or control of immigration? Who decides which is most important?

I don't think we'll agree free trade. I think we'll agree trade with small tariffs (say in the 2% region) so that the EU isn't harmed much by the UK taking our business elsewhere and the EU isn't seen to be giving the UK the best of both worlds. I don't think we'll agree to contributing anything significant to the budget and freedom of movement won't be agreed. Similar to what Canada seem to be signing up for.

There's always a middle ground.

 

[hgblue]

Hi mate....no expert as you can tell! ;) but there is alot of difference between trading with the single market and being part of it...becuase of our links with the EU already and the amount of export we sell to them....we need free movement of goods, people and capital as well.....completely different agreement and with those things comes freedom of movement....If we want to pay the extra tariffs a country like America pay....you can forget about ever getting a better deal than what we have now......"outs" want you to believe you can have your cake and eat it.....thats just isnt going to happen...

This gets absolutely to the heart of the referendum debate. Do the British people believe the high levels of immigration caused by the free movement of people, the lack of democratic accountability which means we have to accept laws we don't agree with, the loss of sovereignty meaning the European court is now superior to our own Supreme Court, the ever increasing contribution meaning we now hand over at least 8 billon quid a year, and the reams of red tape costing our businesses millions of pounds a year and making them less competitive, are all prices worth paying for membership of the single market. I say we set up a positive trading relationship with the EU and remain close friends and allies, but we respectfully bow out of the political project that we've become embroiled in. Far from causing economic harm our businesses will be set free and we'll be a self governing nation again able to negotiate our own trade deals with the growing economies across the globe, which will provide a huge boost to our economy

 

[Ancient Citizen]

An interesting point in this debate, and where brexit is gaining late ground, is, I think, due to the total mendacity of Cameron, and also,
of Corbyn, who has spent all his political life arguing for exit, and now, although currently quiet as a mouse, has squeaked he wants to remain, A typical volte-face adopted
by most of the politcal class once they get some sort of power.
Cameron was forever telling us about the ills of the EU, and how he would 'Change' it, tried to, got the sum total of jack shit, and now comes back screaming
at those who actually agreed with him in the past, how utterly wonderful it all is, we'd be at war if we left, our houses wouldn't be worth a light,
and it'll cost £10 grand to go to Benidorm. The jaw-dropping duplicity is astonishing.
Talking to mates, both left and right, they are disgusted with the fucking pair of them, plus many Labour supporters are voting out, just to piss off the lying twats
and frankly, I can understand them.

 

[BlueHammer85]

If UK leave I think it could be the start of the end for the European Union. There are other countries who are also not happy with their lot inside the club. This is why I was astonished when Cameron came back with next to nothing after his desperate talks with the EU. The EU need us to vote to stay IMO.

what would you have liked him to come back more with ?

 

[FanchesterCity]

There's an awful lot of red tape bypassed by trading within the EU too - accounting is easier, transport of goods is easier, brand protection is easier, consumer protection is more uniform, supply chain management is easier..

 

[Tim of the Oak]

You have offered great input to the debate - but just an aside............

Your more recent posts seem to echo the 'general Remain group' - where there seems to be a movement from them being wholly confident to a sickening realisation that just perhaps........ This leads to an increasing measure of desperation - including mis-quoting.

As an example - Re the EU being responsible for terrorism - what I heard Gove say was that a natural consequence of the free movement policy was increased vulnerability - was there another speech he gave?

Thanks mcfc1632

Gove is very experienced in the media and is Wiley enough to know how his comments could be perceived. His Government have done very little about home grown terrorism and have been bailed out by the security services repeatedly. It's ideas like Gove's and the 80 million Turks that are a bit desperate IMHO. They are also dangerous to our democracy.

The powerful points from people who wish to leave the EU include Johnny Tapia's about the impact on his school. These reflect real experiences.

Where you have a point is that in the absence of hard facts most of the better arguments on both sides of the debate have been exhausted. Occasionally, rumours such as the one about Parliament potentially blocking an exit from the single market give oxygen to the debate!

 

[mcfc1632]

If its failure is inevitable, we should absolutely get out early and get ahead of the game.
If it's struggling - it's a little more tricky - do you ride out the troubles for a longer term benefit, or just quit? (that's if you believe there's a longer term benefit to be had)
If it's doing well - then do you still think the UK could do better still outside of it?

The whole debate still hangs on people's perception of what the EU has done for us so far, what it's currently doing for us, and to a lesser extent what it could do for us in future. I say 'to a lesser extent' because most people seem to be discussing the here and now of the EU and the criticisms of it are in its current state, rather than any improved future version. That's not true of everybody but for a large number it is - particularly those opting to leave. They dislike the present situation, and assume a favourable future for the UK and a less favourable one for the EU - they generally don't believe in a favourable future within the EU. Very few are saying the EU will do well in future, but we'll do even better out of it.

I largely agree - to a large extent (IMO) in this you sum up the decision people have to make.

I do see the stagnation of the EU to be a long-term downward spiral that will likely lead to eventual collapse - we need to be out rather than taken down

The trajectory of the EU seems to be relentlessly towards full integration and the establishment effectively of a United States of Europe - without the need even for any of the controls/governance that (directly effective) elections would provide. I know Remainers suggest that this UsofE is nonsense - but it seems absolutely clear to me and the likes of Juncker are 'not for turning' (amazing how everyone seems to conveniently forget the wranglings Cameron had in opposing Juncker's appointment - precisely because of his Federalist determination.

I see the UK - in 2016 - to be one of the few countries that could survive if we were to take our 'lifeboat' away from the 'Titanic'.

Using a Titanic reference - I think that they have already hit the ice and are taking on water - the EU is sinking but the owners/Captains do not want to see that.

I would rather be watching the band playing from the safety of my previously launched lifeboat - so my judgement is to vote LEAVE

 

[Monkfish]

This gets absolutely to the heart of the referendum debate. Do the British people believe the high levels of immigration caused by the free movement of people, the lack of democratic accountability which means we have to accept laws we don't agree with, the loss of sovereignty meaning the European court is now superior to our own Supreme Court, the ever increasing contribution meaning we now hand over at least 8 billon quid a year, and the reams of red tape costing our businesses millions of pounds a year and making them less competitive, are all prices worth paying for membership of the single market. I say we set up a positive trading relationship with the EU and remain close friends and allies, but we respectfully bow out of the political project that we've become embroiled in. Far from causing economic harm our businesses will be set free and we'll be a self governing nation again able to negotiate our own trade deals with the growing economies across the globe, which will provide a huge boost to our economy

Now this confuses me, you say businesses will benefit - so why do these businesses all say different. You say red tape makes our businesses uncompetitive - why does Germany have no issues exporting its goods worldwide dwarfing our exports? You say it will be a huge boost to our economy - why is it the 'experts' all say different?

For those that don't like immigrants I have no argument, vote to leave. It probably won't lead to less immigration but it might make you feel better for a day or two

ps what are these 'laws we don't agree with' - what EU law keeps you awake at night?

 

[mcfc1632]

Hi mate....just posted a reply to you on the thread about why we "should" be concerned...

TB#1 - I recognise your concerns of what a Leave vote could lead to - what I was really asking though was has your personal concern that a leave vote could occur changed recently - there does feel to be increased anxiety levels amongst the Remain voters on this thread