You're right that the referendum shouldn't be happening. The problem was that Cameron made it a manifesto pledge to have one in order to stop Tory votes going to UKIP. It was all about securing power for himself and the Conservatives even if it meant a divisive referendum campaign were to follow that will do no-one any good in the long term.There shouldn't be a referendum, and the fact there is should be enough, after the event, for David Cameron to resign, regardless of the result.
We vote in General Elections to decide upon a government, that government is then tasked with actually governing for the next 5 years, making the decisions that are required to keep the country running. We, the general public, have done our bit. We headed down to the polling stations in our millions, we cast our votes, we elected a government. It might not be the government some wanted but it's an elected government.
So, should we stay in the EU? How about those we actually elected make the fucking decision?! It's what we voted for them for, to make tough decisions and, more importantly, to be abreast of all the facts when doing so. Your average man on the street has absolutely no fucking clue whether we'd be better in or out of the EU, and you simply can't expect him to either. So quite why it was felt a good idea to put this decision in his ill informed hands is beyond me. A vote on something as fundamentally integral to the way the country will exist over the next few decades should be made from a cerebral place, the facts should be studied and a sensible, well thought out position should be reached before voting. That's not going to happen in a huge number of cases. Emotional votes will be cast, votes which simply ignore all the facts and evidence and go with what "the gut" says. That's a frightening position to find ourselves in, and it was an entirely avoidable one too.
Cameron's own bravado, cockiness, and intent on "going down in history" lead us into this referendum. He was convinced he'd be able to control the elements of his own party and that the referendum would be a resounding win for the "stay in" vote. Now he's realised the Tories are as divided on Europe as they ever were and he's running scared that the vote will go against him.
If a decision was required on staying in/leaving the EU then those who we elected to make such decisions should have been the ones making it. To delegate this decision to the masses is a huge mistake. Individual members of the public are intelligent, informed people who know what they are talking about and can reach an educated position on this matter. The general public as a whole are fucking morons who have no idea what they are voting for or the repercussions of it. We've entrusted the future of our country to the types of people who watch Geordie Shore and voted a dog the most talented act in Britain, twice. As I said, Cameron should resign after the vote for putting us into this dangerous position in the first place. Of course he won't, even if he's humiliated in defeat.
An American company approaches you and says, 'We want to do business in your country, we'll buy the premises, employ around 1,000 people initially,
buy beef and other products off you, then if we're successful, we'll expand around the country and hopefully employ many times more than that,'
'Fuck off, you're not in the EU.'
WIthout getting into 80's politics too much, when Mrs T came into power, she believed that manufacturing and labour were things for lesser nations, and that we shouldn't have to do such things - we should focus on more advanced 'services' - non tangible products. Selling advice / experience / consultancy etc and let the lesser nations do the menial manufacturing and mining tasks etc.
There was some logic to it (at the time), but decades later we've found ourselves still requiring tangible goods (no shit sherlock!), and being at the mercy of those capable of manufacturing them (or mining them). She thought we'd be so wealthy, we'd have no difficulty buying the products from the lesser nations, and there'd be enough nations doing the manufacturing that we couldn't be held to ransom.
There's absolutely nothing wrong with selling services, but its dangerous if the balance is tipped too heavily between services and tangible goods.
Whilst we still manufacture products, it's now often for foreign companies, so in essence we're now supplying the labour that she fought against, without reaping the iion's share of benefits of owning the company!
Germany is manufacturing very well, but also for it's own German businesses (as is the case with China, USA and Japan). We're the odd ones having become mostly a labour market (for manufacturers).
I don't want to diminish some great genuinely British manufacturers - but they're in the minority sadly.
Germany offers over 3 times our manufacturing output, Japan over 4 times, France about 10% more, Italy about 35% more. We're 11th in the manufacturing league - which is very respectable, but we aren't manufacturing for ourselves - we're doing it for foreign companies.
You're right that the referendum shouldn't be happening. The problem was that Cameron made it a manifesto pledge to have one in order to stop Tory votes going to UKIP. It was all about securing power for himself and the Conservatives even if it meant a divisive referendum campaign were to follow that will do no-one any good in the long term.
You're right that the referendum shouldn't be happening. The problem was that Cameron made it a manifesto pledge to have one in order to stop Tory votes going to UKIP. It was all about securing power for himself and the Conservatives even if it meant a divisive referendum campaign were to follow that will do no-one any good in the long term.
That is the a key point. Any "manifesto" pledges made by the leave side are utterly meaningless and at best highly aspirational. As the majority of the cabinet and conservative MPs are pro-remain, it's highly unlikely that the pro-Brexit leaders will be part of a government following a leave vote.
It had been a manifesto pledge previously too, and he kept putting it off or twisting the interpretation of it being necessary or not.
I think this time, he used it as leverage within the EU and probably under the assumption that we'd vote to stay in anyway maybe 60/40 or so.
We're not left the EU worried about us leaving and possibly regretting it going this far, and most likely Cameron's regretting it too.
For good or for bad, we have a general populous enthused by the idea of 'doing our own thing'.
99% of that populous including myself are not really qualified to give expert opinion on it, but at the same time, we have little faith in expert opinion anyway. There are some clearly intelligent and rational poster on here presenting a case for either side - and they're doing a good job either way, but in truth, they / we are doing little more than the politicians are doing - putting spin on our own view and trying to persuade others with what we believe to be credible scenarios.
As is the case at a general election though - I'm most disturbed when I hear people saying 'If Gove says out, then I'm in' or 'Farage nailed it' etc. Worse still is 'we need to sort this immigration problem out - so I'm voting to leave - as though it's problem solved. Some people even seem to be under the impression it's a party politics issue and are being influenced by anti-tory feeling towards Cameron, or pro UKIP towards Farage etc.
With both camps extolling the dangers of making the wrong choice - we're still ultimately tossing a coin to decide. It's just the general public acting as the coin.
Succinct indeed - but he nicked my Titanic analogy
I genuinely mean no offence - but you are in the majority in not understanding this reality.
The Brexit camp will not be implementing the transition plan should there be a leave vote - it will be the elected government of this country.
It is absolutely Cameron's government's job to be undertaking contingency planning for this eventuality and ensuring that the populace is fully informed about the pros and cons of each outcome.
The fact that 'as an individual' he supports a Remain position is neither here nor there - his government's responsibility is to plan strategies and manage implementation on behalf of the coutry and this does include in the contingency planning for large impact possibilities - this is after not a 'no-briainer' it is a close vote.
Therefore he has totally abused his position in favour of his personal preference - indeed to intentionally limit and skew the amount of information available.
There are about 70 pro-Brexit Tory MPs and about 260 anti-Brexit. There's no way that 100 of those anti-Brexit MPs will support Gove or Johnson as leader.I think that the opposite will be true - key (Tory) leaders of the Leave campaign I think are guaranteed key roles (promotions) whatever the vote - will be deemed as an essential move to secure party unity
There are about 70 pro-Brexit Tory MPs and about 260 anti-Brexit. There's no way that 100 of those anti-Brexit MPs will support Gove or Johnson as leader.
No I can only answer for myself but I am not assuming the best possible outcomes, equally I do not accept the worst possible outcomes either. The answer will lay somewhere in between, where exactly depends upon the position of the EU and the U.K. At the time the negotiations start.Aren't the Leavers assuming all the best possible outcomes? Their stance seems to be that we can obtain a free trade deal with the EU AND avoid having to contribute to the budget or follow any of the directives such as free movement of labour.
If they win and then have to seriously negotiate with the EU, they too will have to make concessions. They will have to find a process for agreeing what the negotiating team's priorities are. Free trade or control of immigration? Who decides which is most important?
IN : Remain in one of the worlds biggest trading blocks. All major institutions including the Bank Of England and IMF agree it's in our best economic interest to remain. The US and China would continue trade with the EU with Britain being a big player. We can move anywhere we want in the EU, with cheaper holidays and phone tariffs. The EU holds the peace of all European country's and remaining will keep our generation stronger and safer. Britain is able to keep its currency and sovereignty. With Britain out the EU, we may very well lose Scotland to there next independent referendum - so us leaving might not only break up Europe but also Britain. Leaving is a major leep into the unknown.
OUT : Laws are being passed from Brussels to Britain by un-elected officials - it is badly run and not democratic. We have no control of our borders - anyone in the EU is free to move here and high immigration puts a strain on our services, roads and healthcare. We are paying more into the EU then we get back and are bailing out falling country's. The EU is becoming more federalist with some arguing its main goal will be all country's under one flag, with one army and one currency. The EU has failed and Britain needs to leave before it collapses. Britain is a strong country with the 5th best economy in the world, why remain part of this undemocratic shambolic union when we can be a proud independent and stronger country.
Out of kilter with what?Those figures are totally out of kilter.
IN : Remain in one of the worlds biggest trading blocks. All major institutions including the Bank Of England and IMF agree it's in our best economic interest to remain. The US and China would continue trade with the EU with Britain being a big player. We can move anywhere we want in the EU, with cheaper holidays and phone tariffs. The EU holds the peace of all European country's and remaining will keep our generation stronger and safer. Britain is able to keep its currency and sovereignty. With Britain out the EU, we may very well lose Scotland to there next independent referendum - so us leaving might not only break up Europe but also Britain. Leaving is a major leep into the unknown.
OUT : Laws are being passed from Brussels to Britain by un-elected officials - it is badly run and not democratic. We have no control of our borders - anyone in the EU is free to move here and high immigration puts a strain on our services, roads and healthcare. We are paying more into the EU then we get back and are bailing out falling country's. The EU is becoming more federalist with some arguing its main goal will be all country's under one flag, with one army and one currency. The EU has failed and Britain needs to leave before it collapses. Britain is a strong country with the 5th best economy in the world, why remain part of this undemocratic shambolic union when we can be a proud independent and stronger country.
There are about 70 pro-Brexit Tory MPs and about 260 anti-Brexit. There's no way that 100 of those anti-Brexit MPs will support Gove or Johnson as leader.
I'd imagine that following a vote to leave the EU, most Tory MPs would realise that having someone who doesn't want to jump in bed with EU as leader would be preferable. Boris was always likely to follow Cameron before he announced his referendum allegiances anyway.
Borris has never been pro brexit in previous elections. He saw an oportunity and has gambled his career on an out vote. If it pays off he has almost guaranteed himself the top job.