EU referendum

[FanchesterCity]

It aint happening so no need for me to infect myself ;). Honestly, you'd have to be supremely gullible to believe these tariffs are even remotely on the cards.

Germany already has a 15% tariff on their motors AKA 'Badge Tax'

 

[stonie]

I know more about rocket science than politics so won't be delving too deep in what are interesting view points on here, personally I am in the out camp and never been swayed by the scaremongering but to swerve from the main topic briefly it seems to me that in or out and especially if we do come out that Cameron has been made to look a buffoon and the only winner being that other buffon corbyn, as I said I know little and just expressing it from my point of view....

 

[tshirtman]

I'll make a prediction
If England are still in the Euro's come the referendum, it'll be Remain
If England are out come the referendum, it'll be Brexit

England's last group game is on the 20th so possible.

 

[Silva_Spell]

This isnt even taking into consideration that we get around half(?) of that 10.6billion back from the EU each year in payouts.....

After the rebate the figure is around £15.2billion

Obviously this is looking back at recent figures. It's likely to rise in the future, as it has done in the past

 

[FanchesterCity]

This whole 'chance of a lifetime' and 'locked in' stuff... it reminds me the salesman claiming 'but you HAVE to buy today as the deal is about to end'.

As far as I understand it, IF we should face any major issue with the EU in future, enough for us to throw our toys out of the pram (or they theirs), our government can call for another referendum. We don't really do referendums in this country, so this is an extremely rare one, but still, if we HAD to, we can ask the nation again. Regardless of that, our government could just act without our blessing, skip a referendum and withdraw right? - it's on the verge of withdrawing right now so why can't it do the same in the future?

I would imaging there might be some withdrawal penalties etc, but I'm not certain - but what is so special about this referendum that allows us to withdraw ONLY now - what's preventing it in 1, 5 or even10 years time?

Anybody know?

 

[Bowyers Sausages]

What surprised me recently was hearing that a leading Brexit campaigner was considering mounting a legal challenge to the government extending the date for registering to vote.

Very odd.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

If Germany allows the EU to negotiate a trade deal that results in German car manufacturers having a 9.8% tariff imposed on their exports to the UK I'll go to work wearing a United top.

But no trade agreement would result in that tariff and all the other EU Countires won't be queuing up to help the UK.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

What surprised me recently was hearing that a leading Brexit campaigner was considering mounting a legal challenge to the government extending the date for registering to vote.

Very odd.

Yes but when were the two campaigns about democracy!

 

[Tim of the Oak]

After the rebate the figure is around £15.2billion

Obviously this is looking back at recent figures. It's likely to rise in the future, as it has done in the past

That may be the figure that never goes to the EU because we make the deduction here (it's not really a rebate). Even the strongest Brexiters say our net contribution is £10billion after EU spend here. This also includes some areas that we have spent more on (whether you agree with it or not) if the EU didn't exist!

The vast majority of the £10 billion would go if we entered a trade agreement at the same cost per person at Norway. Then if we could get a deal that didn't invlude free movement then here would be costs from implementing the mooted points and visa system (that might be worthwhile). The notion of savings is misleading!

 

[Tim of the Oak]

You beat me to it mate......I read the report and before I got to the bottom I guess it was from a pro "leave" source and not independent one....was just about to say the same thing as you have done......WTO agreement is not a good thing....its bad.....the tariffs would be alot higher than they are now and have a massive impact on trade...Even those that vote "leave" say it could cost 7.4billion a year in tariff charges.....so there goes most of Boris Johnson's 10.6billion he says we going to save each year!...and those numbers are coming from his own supporters, so you can guess the actual figure could easily be higher and thats without taking in other negative factors....This isnt even taking into consideration that we get around half(?) of that 10.6billion back from the EU each year in payouts.....

Below is from The Telegraph.....and is a balanced view and just stating what both sides have said about these tariffs......Not trying to win any arguments, just wanted to pass onto the thread what it says!


"These WTO tariffs range from 32 per cent on wine, to 4.1 per cent on liquefied natural gas, with items like cars (9.8 per cent) and wheat products (12.8 per cent) somewhere in between.

John Springford, an economist with the Centre for European Reform, the total cost of those tariffs would be large, ranging from a 2.2 per cent of GDP (£40 billion) to 9 per cent.

Business for Britain, which campaigns for exit, estimates that at worst, tariffs would cost British exporters just £7.4 billion a year and says the UK would save enough on EU membership fees to be

able to compensate exporters for that"

THANKS TRUE BLUE NO1

The sad thing is with the hysteria being whipped up any reference to costs is denigrated as project fear.

Hopefully by the time of the vote, people will have considered the implications regardless of whether they vote in or out!

 

[SWP's back]

I'll make a prediction
If England are still in the Euro's come the referendum, it'll be Remain
If England are out come the referendum, it'll be Brexit

England's last group game is on the 20th so possible.

Haha. Not thought of that. You're probably not far off.

 

[hgblue]

This whole 'chance of a lifetime' and 'locked in' stuff... it reminds me the salesman claiming 'but you HAVE to buy today as the deal is about to end'.

As far as I understand it, IF we should face any major issue with the EU in future, enough for us to throw our toys out of the pram (or they theirs), our government can call for another referendum. We don't really do referendums in this country, so this is an extremely rare one, but still, if we HAD to, we can ask the nation again. Regardless of that, our government could just act without our blessing, skip a referendum and withdraw right? - it's on the verge of withdrawing right now so why can't it do the same in the future?

I would imaging there might be some withdrawal penalties etc, but I'm not certain - but what is so special about this referendum that allows us to withdraw ONLY now - what's preventing it in 1, 5 or even10 years time?

Anybody know?

If you really believe our political class will put themselves through the trauma of having to go before the British people in another EU referendum any time soon, then you're wrong I'm afraid. The political class has an in built pro-EU majority and if this campaign has taught them anything it's that a referendum on the EU will not be easy for them to win. I strongly suspect that if Remain wins this time we won't be making the same mistake again and they know it. So voting to Remain in the belief we'll get another go if the warnings of the Leave side turn out to be true is deluded.

 

[Monkfish]

If you really believe our political class will put themselves through the trauma of having to go before the British people in another EU referendum any time soon, then you're wrong I'm afraid. The political class has an in built pro-EU majority and if this campaign has taught them anything it's that a referendum on the EU will not be easy for them to win. I strongly suspect that if Remain wins this time we won't be making the same mistake again and they know it. So voting to Remain in the belief we'll get another go if the warnings of the Leave side turn out to be true is deluded.

If the warnings of the leave side come true we won't need a referendum as there will be nothing to leave anyway

 

[Monkfish]

I know more about rocket science than politics so won't be delving too deep in what are interesting view points on here, personally I am in the out camp and never been swayed by the scaremongering but to swerve from the main topic briefly it seems to me that in or out and especially if we do come out that Cameron has been made to look a buffoon and the only winner being that other buffon corbyn, as I said I know little and just expressing it from my point of view....

Don't think so, the people most angry with Corbyn are his own supporters

 

[Chippy_boy]

Type any EU derivative into Twitter and see the general consensus

Remain is fucked pal

Every comment..every poll has Leave smashing it..tonight has especially fucked it for your lot

Do you honestly believe that?

Apart from being factually incorrect (every poll smashing it, is simply incorrect)...

Has it not occurred to you that it's the people who want change who are motivated to go on TV programs, take part in debates, participate in polls? Has it occurred to you that people like to rant and shout and complain about things, because they like to protest. But in the cold light of day, most people are quite timid and tend to stick with what they know? Has it not occurred to you that in every election, every poll, there's *always* a stong swing back towards the "don't change anything" option when the actually voting takes place?

Have a little mull on that mate, before betting your house on anything.

Unless the Leave camp are I reckon 10 points clear by polling day, they will lose. And right now it's level pegging. Your lot has two weeks to do and say something radically different, or you've lost. "Bring back control" is not it. What a lame fucking slogan, we've already got control of our police, our army, our schools, our NHS, our taxes, our foreign policy, our governments, our local councils, our... well pretty much everything actually.

Bring back control? No thanks, I've already got one.

 

[Chippy_boy]

If Germany allows the EU to negotiate a trade deal that results in German car manufacturers having a 9.8% tariff imposed on their exports to the UK I'll go to work wearing a United top.

They won't. The EU will insist on us agreeing to free movement of labour, the working time directive, supremecy of the ECJ and a load of other stuff. We will refuse. So there won't be any agreement. Germany doesn't need to allow the EU to negotiate anything, the negotiations will fail.

I am not sure it will be 10%, but there will be taxes on German exports coming to the UK and UK ones going to the EU. This is the only possible outcome and the reason it's the only possible outcome is because if they allowed us access without tariff, to the EU markets and allowed us that access without us signing up to the things I descibe above, half a dozen other countries would leave in a heartbeat and the EU project is over. Are you suggesting that Germany will agree to the break up of the EU, rather than avoid a few percentage points of tax in its car exports? Yet more fantasy from the Brexit dreamers.

I will also add that a trade deal needs the agreement of 20 EU countries and 20 will never agree to what we seek, never.

"Yes but we are the world's 5th largest economy, bla, bla, blu". They haven't agreed to what we want with the worlds' biggest economy. They haven't agreed to what we want with the worlds' 2nd biggest economy. They haven't agreed to what we want with the worlds' 3rd biggest economy. Germany is the 4th biggest. They haven't agreed to it EVER.

 

[stonerblue]

I'll make a prediction
If England are still in the Euro's come the referendum, it'll be Remain
If England are out come the referendum, it'll be Brexit

England's last group game is on the 20th so possible.

Funny you should say that as i thought the other day, why don't we forget about a referendum and tag our in/out decision onto the teams performance. Out before the quarters-Remain, Through to semis- Leave. Would save a lot of pissing about..

 

[Chippy_boy]

What surprised me recently was hearing that a leading Brexit campaigner was considering mounting a legal challenge to the government extending the date for registering to vote.

Very odd.

Not odd at all. I suggested that might happen at the time.

 

[TRUE BLUE NO1]

It aint happening so no need for me to infect myself ;). Honestly, you'd have to be supremely gullible to believe these tariffs are even remotely on the cards.

I agree mate...........nothing worse than having to wear a rag shirt!;)...I also agree, you need to use a bit of common sense when looking at all these tariff figures but the 7.4billion cost for leaving was the "leavers" figure.....the "in" were saying it was even more.....so no matter what the traiffs.....the Business for Britain (who support Boris and want "out")...were using the argument to say dont worry about leaving, any savings will cover the cost/penalty.....when it fact the savings they talk about should be going towards improving the country and investing in NHS, etc.....Boris used that 10.6billion saving alot last night to sell this idea to the country and I just found it funny that his own side were saying something completely different earlier in the day.....thanks for your comment mate...

 

[AlgarveBlu]

Do you honestly believe that?

Apart from being factually incorrect (every poll smashing it, is simply incorrect)...

Has it not occurred to you that it's the people who want change who are motivated to go on TV programs, take part in debates, participate in polls? Has it occurred to you that people like to rant and shout and complain about things, because they like to protest. But in the cold light of day, most people are quite timid and tend to stick with what they know? Has it not occurred to you that in every election, every poll, there's *always* a stong swing back towards the "don't change anything" option when the actually voting takes place?

Have a little mull on that mate, before betting your house on anything.

Unless the Leave camp are I reckon 10 points clear by polling day, they will lose. And right now it's level pegging. Your lot has two weeks to do and say something radically different, or you've lost. "Bring back control" is not it.

I generally agree with that but it was interesting to see on newsnight that pollster Lord Hayward from the Tories and an ardent remain man called this one for leave - I think he was the only person to call the tight general elections correctly and the Tory majority last year.

Something to do with white van man or a white man in a van winning it for leave