EU referendum

[Chippy_boy]

Just started looking at this. In 2013 (latest stats I can find) 50% of our exports to the EU were with our three largest trading partners, the remaining 50% was with the other 24 nations. That could prove to be significant could it not. I am guessing but I think it will be Germany, France and Spain...? I will look further into thud, in the meantime, here's a link to the EU site i took the info from.

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Intra-EU_trade_in_goods_-_recent_trends

The same is true of their exports (more or less).

To ratify a trade deal, it needs the support of 20 nations out of the 28. 24 of them don't give a shit about loss of exports to the UK, and they won't agree to a trade deal that rewards us for leaving and gives us unfettered access to their markets.

We aren't getting a trade deal. The more relevant question is, does the financial penalty hurt enough to cost jobs in the UK and can other trade deals be put in place that compensate.

The answer to that imho, is "perhaps" in the medium to long term, like 5 years+ But in the short term, businesses can't just drop European customers and instantly replace them with ones in Mexico. And the foreign businesses that are in the UK primarily to sell to the whole of the EU, will rethink their strategies and over time, move production out of the UK.

 

[SWP's back]

That's not what was being debated. Joe suggested that the loss of our membership fees would cause the EU to struggle and I was simply showing how inconsequential that is. That's all.

That's fine. It's just our membership fees don't count towards their GDP is all.

 

[SWP's back]

Yes, I agree. The FTSE dropped 2% on the news that a poll showed Brexit pulling ahead. It will crash like 2008 should they actually win.

And bounce back like 2009. It's sentiment led.

But what you state is exactly the reason I'm voting IN.

 

[SWP's back]

The same is true of their exports (more or less).

To ratify a trade deal, it needs the support of 20 nations out of the 28. 24 of them don't give a shit about loss of exports to the UK, and they won't agree to a trade deal that rewards us for leaving and gives us unfettered access to their markets.

And those 24 are whipped by Germany and France like a back bencher in parliament.

 

[TRUE BLUE NO1]

All Boris, Gove and the rest of the Brexiters are doing is reforming the landscape, changing the environment within which we operate. When we get to the point where the direction of the country is known the Government can then tell us how they wish to progress. Who is the PM and which party is in power will obviously affect the direction of travel but one thing is for certain you will not have Boris, Gove, Farage, Skinner and Giesla Stewart all in the same government, let alone the same cabinet from where such policies will eminates. So please stop asking for these answers now, or at least if that's what you want, ask Call me Dave what his stance would be when we leave should we vote to so do!

Hi mate....I understand what you are saying but this only works if after the landscape has been set, we can then vote on the direction we feel is best for the country.....voting on one without the other is just like only knowing half a story? .....We might not like how the government wishes to progress? What happens then?...We stuck for the next 3 or 4 years with a plan we dont like and didnt vote for??? For me this only works if you can vote for the "reforming of the landscape" and then vote for the plan afterwards......(trying to meet you half way on this subject mate!;)

I guess it doesnt help that the guy that is running the country supports "stay", so he hasnt yet needed to answer the questions about what his plan would be.......You make excellent points about who is the "PM and which party it is"....If we leave, its a shame we cant then vote for the party the country feels would have the best "plan" for leaving?.....Genuine question....Does anyone feel that a "leave" vote could push for a earlier General election? This would allow us to vote for what the people feel would be the best way forward.......just thinking out loud everyone!;)

 

[Chippy_boy]

And bounce back like 2009. It's sentiment led.

But what you state is exactly the reason I'm voting IN.

It's a big factor for me too. I've had no return on my savings for donkeys years and at 55, I don't want another 5 to 10 years of the same. The economy will start to motor again the moment we get an IN vote and this bloody damaging distraction out of the way.

The other thing I might just add, is that even if we vote to stay in, it's not like it's forever. If the wheels come off in the EU, or things get markedly worse, we can always decide to leave in a few years time. It's not like it's the big "once in a lifetime" decision it's being made out to be. It would be a lot more difficult to change our minds if we'd left though.

 

[BigJoe#1]

Hi mate....I understand what you are saying but this only works if after the landscape has been set, we can then vote on the direction we feel is best for the country.....voting on one without the other is just like only knowing half a story? .....We might not like how the government wishes to progress? What happens then?...We stuck for the next 3 or 4 years with a plan we dont like and didnt vote for??? For me this only works if you can vote for the "reforming of the landscape" and then vote for the plan afterwards......(trying to meet you half way on this subject mate!;)

I guess it doesnt help that the guy that is running the country supports "stay", so he hasnt yet needed to answer the questions about what his plan would be.......You make excellent points about who is the "PM and which party it is"....If we leave, its a shame we cant then vote for the party the country feels would have the best "plan" for leaving?.....Genuine question....Does anyone feel that a "leave" vote could push for a earlier General election? This would allow us to vote for what the people feel would be the best way forward.......just thinking out loud everyone!;)

To your question. I would be absolutely flabbergasted if there was not an election within 12 months of a Brexit vote, if that were to happen. Either way Cameron us a dead man walking in my book, even if they win and by a sizeable majority, there are enough back benchers who will be pissed off and will think he's let them down. When that happens whoever gets the gig is unlikely to have the full support (which they need) of all the Tory MPs. They will not be able to carry on and will have to ask the country for another chance with the new leader, who will gave the authority if he is elected... Just my opinion... Hope it isn't too unrealistic 80).

 

[SWP's back]

It's a big factor for me too. I've had no return on my savings for donkeys years and at 55, I don't want another 5 to 10 years of the same. The economy will start to motor again the moment we get an IN vote and this bloody damaging distraction out of the way.

The other thing I might just add, is that even if we vote to stay in, it's not like it's forever. If the wheels come off in the EU, or things get markedly worse, we can always decide to leave in a few years time. It's not like it's the big "once in a lifetime" decision it's being made out to be. It would be a lot more difficult to change our minds if we'd left though.

Becareful, some **** will accuse you of profiteering on the referendum.

 

[BigJoe#1]

Just as an aside, I was in Neath campaigning this morning and spoke to about 120 people.

It was genuinely interesting, whilst the support to Leave was not as intense as Port Talbot three of four weeks ago, it was still very heavily weighted towards leaving. Taking a pretty good cross section of the people male and female and across the age range of 18-80+ the support was about 65% wanting out with the majority of those being really passionate about it and keen to tell me all their family and friends were voting out too. There was about 15% who wanted to stay, 10% didn't want to say with a further 10% undecided.

Not at all scientific but still very strong down here for Brexit. As I said previously, I would have thought with this being a very strong Labour supporting area, and with Kinnock as the MP (in the neighbouring constituency) plus the backing of the unions the Remain support would have been stronger.

Just thought I'd share that with you.

 

[Mike N]

Vote Leave demo on Washway Road in Sale today. Flags, banners and handing out badges. Seemed like people were interested. Can't see any local presence for the Remain campaign.

 

[smudgedj]

Just started looking at this. In 2013 (latest stats I can find) 50% of our exports to the EU were with our three largest trading partners, the remaining 50% was with the other 24 nations. That could prove to be significant could it not. I am guessing but I think it will be Germany, France and Spain...? I will look further into thud, in the meantime, here's a link to the EU site i took the info from.

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Intra-EU_trade_in_goods_-_recent_trends

In 2015 we exported £133 billions in trade to the EU. The top seven countries accounted for more than £100 billions. On imports the figures are £217 billions of which the top seven accounts for £178 billions.

https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/Documents/Webtbls_dec-cum_2015.xls

Is that what you was after?

 

[TRUE BLUE NO1]

To your question. I would be absolutely flabbergasted if there was not an election within 12 months of a Brexit vote, if that were to happen. Either way Cameron us a dead man walking in my book, even if they win and by a sizeable majority, there are enough back benchers who will be pissed off and will think he's let them down. When that happens whoever gets the gig is unlikely to have the full support (which they need) of all the Tory MPs. They will not be able to carry on and will have to ask the country for another chance with the new leader, who will gave the authority if he is elected... Just my opinion... Hope it isn't too unrealistic 80).

Thanks for your reply mate!;)

 

[BigJoe#1]

In 2015 we exported £133 billions in trade to the EU. The top seven countries accounted for more than £100 billions. On imports the figures are £217 billions of which the top seven accounts for £178 billions.

https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/Documents/Webtbls_dec-cum_2015.xls

Is that what you was after?

Thanks.... Was just interested to learn how much of our trade is done with individual countries as for example, if most of our imports are from Germany how would they deal with us slapping a tarrif on their exports to us, moreover how would the German companies that export to us react? It would seem that there would be more to it than just the political ramifications, Companies will insist on being heard too.

 

[smudgedj]

Thanks.... Was just interested to learn how much of our trade is done with individual countries as for example, if most of our imports are from Germany how would they deal with us slapping a tarrif on their exports to us, moreover how would the German companies that export to us react? It would seem that there would be more to it than just the political ramifications, Companies will insist on being heard too.

Of course, money counts and business investment depends on profits not politics. Also can you see the EU administration having to explain to German industry why they must navigate a whole new tranche of non tariff barriers to export to the very wealthy UK market. Doesn't sound very realistic does it?

 

[The perfect fumble]

Of course, money counts and business investment depends on profits not politics. Also can you see the EU administration having to explain to German industry why they must navigate a whole new tranche of non tariff barriers to export to the very wealthy UK market. Doesn't sound very realistic does it?

Don't peddle that get out clause. The Germans built an industrial juggernaut with an ultra strong Deutsche Mark and covered the cost of inheriting basket case East Germany with barely a stumble, they'll not suck our dicks post Brexit to sell their BMWs as if nothing has happened.

We leave we're in for one hell of a shock.

 

[cibaman]

To your question. I would be absolutely flabbergasted if there was not an election within 12 months of a Brexit vote, if that were to happen. Either way Cameron us a dead man walking in my book, even if they win and by a sizeable majority, there are enough back benchers who will be pissed off and will think he's let them down. When that happens whoever gets the gig is unlikely to have the full support (which they need) of all the Tory MPs. They will not be able to carry on and will have to ask the country for another chance with the new leader, who will gave the authority if he is elected... Just my opinion... Hope it isn't too unrealistic 80).

Why would there be a general election after a brexit vote? It would require Tory MPs to vote against the govt or abstain in a vote of confidence. If all goes well the Remainers would have to grin and bear it. If it goes badly the Remainers' priority would be to force a 2nd referendum, they'd have nothing to gain from bringing their govt down.

The only way that there will be a general election would be if we vote in and enough of the most virulent Leavers, such as Dorries, vote against the govt out of spite.

 

[SWP's back]

Don't peddle that get out clause. The Germans built an industrial juggernaut with an ultra strong Deutsche Mark and covered the cost of inheriting basket case East Germany with barely a stumble, they'll not suck our dicks post Brexit to sell their BMWs as if nothing has happened.

We leave we're in for one hell of a shock.

So wrong.

Accepting East Germany weakened the DM enabling them to export worldwide on a greater scale.

The DM then strengthened right up until they came up with the euro, which, by including weaker Med nations again made their currency very cheap and further helped exports.

 

[The perfect fumble]

So wrong.

Accepting East Germany weakened the DM enabling them to export worldwide on a greater scale.

The DM then strengthened right up until they came up with the euro, which, by including weaker Med nations again made their currency very cheap and further helped exports.

Of course, Germany's industrial might has always been driven by fortuitous external circumstances.

 

[sir baconface]

One thing I would like someone to answer is, if we leave what happens to our infrastructure Arriva, the bus and transport group, is owned by Germany's Deutsche Bahn, while other rail contracts are european run British Energy, the nuclear operator, belongs to France's EDF while EON and Npower are German while scotish power is spanish. Also BAA, which owns six UK airports is owned by Spain's Ferrovial and there are examples of ports and water companies in non british ownership.

So if we leave what stops these companies that are european from hiking prices? Also the last few years united utilities have been relaying water pipes all over using money from the european funds, is there enough money available to subsidise UU if we leave to the same extent? I am not fusssed that much on imigration people come, people go. but I am concerened that we have a good road and transport systems, up to date water and energy infrastructure and other vital infrastructure projects are secure.

These things are not made clear amongst the poltical point scoring from both sides.

Looks to me that all of boris's taking back control rhetoric is pure bullshit on his part as we don't own or control basic things, as his lot sold it all off.

Quite simple. Those companies are either regulated and/or subject to market forces. Or both. So hike their prices unreasonably and one of the following happens: (a) their contract isn't renewed, (b) they are overruled by the regulator, or (c) customers leave in droves.

Does that give you a clear answer?

 

[smudgedj]

Don't peddle that get out clause. The Germans built an industrial juggernaut with an ultra strong Deutsche Mark and covered the cost of inheriting basket case East Germany with barely a stumble, they'll not suck our dicks post Brexit to sell their BMWs as if nothing has happened.

We leave we're in for one hell of a shock.

More to do with having a weak currency. Nothing like getting lucky. Twice.