The next Prime Minister of Britain

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

But the overriding rationale for the EU will be to deter any other country from going this route and risk the break-up of the institution, so the benefit to their side will be for the post-article 50 break to happen swiftly and painfully for the UK (even if it causes some lesser economic pain to their own countries)

But that causes them a dichotomy. They want to be seen as a democratic institution so they'll struggle to punish a country for following the will of the people. If Cameron (or anyone else, for that matter) had unilaterally decided to take the UK out that would be different but he didn't. Interesting times ahead...

 

[sir baconface]

He could try and attempt some kind of soft shell to the electorate for invoking Article 50 straight way, I suppose.

Needs to read Claws 4 first.

 

[Gelsons Dad]

I would dispute that there is nothing to back up the claim its a process you cannot stop. The wording is clear in that its a two year process and then you are out - agreement or no agreement and no take backs.

But I agree its never been done before so there is no precedent so yes if it was considered to be of mutual benefit to both sides to close out the process a way round it will be found. No one wants either side to be intransigent to the detriment of all.

It can be extended to beyond 2 years. It is not 2 years and out.

 

[chesterbells]

But that causes them a dichotomy. They want to be seen as a democratic institution so they'll struggle to punish a country for following the will of the people. If Cameron (or anyone else, for that matter) had unilaterally decided to take the UK out that would be different but he didn't. Interesting times ahead...

You may well be right, but my instinct is that i don't think they'll find it that much of a struggle!

 

[BobKowalski]

It can be extended to beyond 2 years. It is not 2 years and out.

Yep.

 

[rabby]

But the overriding rationale for the EU will be to deter any other country from going this route and risk the break-up of the institution, so the benefit to their side will be for the post-article 50 break to happen swiftly and painfully for the UK (even if it causes some lesser economic pain to their own countries)

Think you fail to understand the term negotiated settlement,both sides will have different ideas on a acceptable agreement ensuring there will be nothing swift about it unless both sides are in agreement and clearly we would not accept anything swift and painful.

 

[BobKowalski]

You may well be right, but my instinct is that i don't think they'll find it that much of a struggle!

Not sure it will be punishment as such. But right now it's fairly clear where the fault lines are. Business and political establishment want access to the single market. EU will only allow it if we accept free movement of labour. If EU stick to their guns then we are out of the single market and it will have a negative effect on the economy. That's not punishment it's just a consequence of the decision we have taken. If we concede on free movement of labour then what was the bloody point of all this given, as Cameron said yesterday, he lost the referendum on immigration.

I'm still sticking to a massive fudge with both sides giving something up.

 

[rabby]

But that causes them a dichotomy. They want to be seen as a democratic institution so they'll struggle to punish a country for following the will of the people. If Cameron (or anyone else, for that matter) had unilaterally decided to take the UK out that would be different but he didn't. Interesting times ahead...

Good point,the damage to the EU reputation of a overly aggressive approach to negotiations could work against them as they try to prevent further fragmentation of the Union in future years.

 

[East Level 2]

well that crab fellow is a twat, but then they all are, still think it will be May

They are all ladies front bottoms to a degree, but it's a scale from "bit of a fanny" through "twat" to "complete and utter ****".
Gove is at the "complete and utter ****" end of the spectrum.

 

[Plays By Sense Of Smell]

Needs to read Claws 4 first.

Shipham all out I say, and get some new ones in.

 

[chesterbells]

Think you fail to understand the term negotiated settlement,both sides will have different ideas on a acceptable agreement ensuring there will be nothing swift about it unless both sides are in agreement and clearly we would not accept anything swift and painful.

No, I do understand what the words negotiated settlement mean, I really do.

But what I'm asking here, is that it would be an uneven negotiation, so when it comes the the crux of it, would the UK be in any position to "not accept" as you term it?
My concern is that negotiations would take place but on EU terms, and so they would not allow the UK to keep "not accepting" - ultimately in a 27 vs 1 situation they could/would impose a settlement and withdraw all their UK links and remove the UK from any legislation.
Of course, we're all speculating here, I understand that too.

 

[chesterbells]

Good point,the damage to the EU reputation of a overly aggressive approach to negotiations could work against them as they try to prevent further fragmentation of the Union in future years.

But if deterrence is their most important aim - because they fear the break up of the EU - then I dont see how an overly aggressive approach would work against them? Surely it would do the job perfectly?

 

[the blue panther]

Has that Michael John Chopley made an announcement yet?
(So long since he used to post, forgive me if I've mixed up his name - it was something like that.)
Gareth Southgate hasn't ruled himself out yet.

 

[mancityvstoke]

Theresa May...the new Thatcher or a breath of fresh air?

 

[Paul Lake's Left Knee]

A right motley crew, I really dont know who is the least offensive, it better not be Gove, but knowing the Tories the slimy **** will win by a landslide.

 

[Monkfish]

A right motley crew, I really dont know who is the least offensive, it better not be Gove, but knowing the Tories the slimy **** will win by a landslide.

Can't see it, the Tories like power more than anything else and he is the most likely to lose them that

 

[BoyBlue_1985]

Can't see it, the Tories like power more than anything else and he is the most likely to lose them that

Not much point of being a politician if your aim isn't power as without the power you cant do a thing. Even though Corbyn comes like a poorly dressed Tramp that would renationalise everything including the workforce and the air we breathe the one thing he wants more than anything is power just like his union backers through the Labour Party

 

[bluethrunthru]

It will be Gove because as a leader he will lead and do exactly what his wifes employers want him to do.

 

[stonerblue]

Do we all get to vote on this?

 

[bobmcfc]

I wouldn't have any concerns having Boris as PM. I like his speech very much