COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[AlgarveBlu]

I have read the interview, as well, but to be fair, several of us have been making similar predictions for a few months now. I am an economist, but it didn’t require being one to see where things were going even before the coronavirus outbreak and market reaction.

As I have said elsewhere, the current situation is just hastening the march to the envitable.

you’d been predicting a 30-40% drop in equity markets based on a slow down in growth? Not an economist myself but I thought those numbers normally proceeded a black swan event in that time frame?

 

[SebastianBlue]

Are you referring to my wanking record?

Aren’t I always?

 

[George Hannah]

you’d been predicting a 30-40% drop in equity markets based on a slow down in growth? Not an economist myself but I thought those numbers normally proceeded a black swan event in that time frame?

Is that like a sick swan - maybe in the FA Cup Final eh?

 

[SebastianBlue]

you’d been predicting a 30-40% drop in equity markets based on a slow down in growth? Not an economist myself but I thought those numbers normally proceeded a black swan event in that time frame?

I haven’t been predicting such a violent descent, as those are indeed usually based on black swan events, but I and a few others have been predicting a convulsion that would expose inherent market frailties that would rather quickly lead to a destructive downturn much worse than even 2008.

The current market reaction is just a more violent, expedited version of those predictions from Roubini, myself, and others, which was my point. You very rarely can correctly predict the actual instigator and timing of such turns, but if you know what to look for, you can predict the general framework, flow, and timeframe of them once they start.

The market indicators have been worrying for quite sometime — well before the coronavirus crisis came along — but have been generally ignored by most outside of economic analysts (and insiders looking to profit from the upcoming crash) due to various artificial market manipulation/propping, absolutely mad investment actions, and truly insane fiscal policy from some of the major economic drivers after (primarily) Trump’s election and Brexit.

The world economy has been teetering on the edge of oblivion for some time.

 

[George Hannah]

You not seen that? Pretty sinister.

No - it is, especially since China is being held up as an example of good practice.

 

[Uffa]

I haven’t been predicting such a violent descent, as those are indeed usually based on black swan events, but I and a few others have been predicting a convulsion that would expose inherent market frailties that would rather quickly lead to a destructive downturn much worse than even 2008.

Just for the uninitiated like myself, what's a black swan event?

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

No - it is, especially since China is being held up as an example of good practice.

Not by the people being welded into their apartment blocks, I’ll hazard.

And surely it’s good practise...

 

[SebastianBlue]

Just for the uninitiated like myself, what's a black swan event?

Lifting this from Investopedia as it is just more efficient. :-)

A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, their severe impact, and the practice of explaining widespread failure to predict them as simple folly in hindsight.

 

[Manchester_lalala]

Can see this happening if a couple of hundred get infected in Britain within the next couple of weeks. All it takes is one player from one club to get it and the season will be over.0

 

[Le Havre Oswald]

Is pink eye a symptom?

Asking for a friend.