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Summerbuzz
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I've stayed off this thread and that's partly why I have no idea. I've read varying accounts, but it appears public opinion and sustained pressure from France (in particular) were key in pushing us to enact these measures. I don't really have much faith that our Gov is technocratic in a way that would mean we were primarly moved by scientific consensus.
Hancock's mention of wristbands and passports seemed like a sop to these questions. Some in the behavioural field were quite unhappy that he'd proposed it, when it would apparently require a large amount of in depth work to be demonstrated any sort of safe option.
My interest is like yours - how little data can we get away with to reliably judge numbers of asymptomatic cases - and then, are we going to be organised enough to survery in a suitably systematic manner.
Blair said test everyone provides the safe way out. That's the end of the year IMO. I've not heard any other way out that would likely be considered a safe bet at this point. What we need to know is one question - it's likely tho that we will end up accepting conclusions to general questions based on to the quality and usefulness of aspects of the data we are getting now, and in future, and it could be that the combination of data points that eventually tips the balance is quite obscure to us now.
Regardless, public perception and political factors are likely to be key factors in what happens. The effects of losing NHS staff, fatigue, morale and the sentiment amongst those involved will play a part. Seemingly, one reason why letting a segment of the population die would have proved impossible is that the message came back from the medical community, that they would not have been able to accept that as their role. Every life matters, said the WHO guys. I imagine that, when confronted with the difficulty and emotional toil of the work, any other attitude would have been psychologically quite unsustainable for many of them. Imponderables like this will likely be what makes the difference in the exact level of confidence govt possess when they do look to move forward.
But really, we are well ahead of ourselves. I don't honestly think there is anything much more to say apart from - we'll see.
My view is that we are firmly at the stage where we need to concentrate on the urgent issues facing us. My take is we are all now in uncharted territory - the Italy comparison is redundant. We cannot possibly count on infection and death numbers stabilising in the way they have. Let alone predict further ahead. What if we find a magic bullet therapy that lets us keep people alive on ventilators indefinitely? Do we then wait for the vaccine? We'll see!
The focus has to be on surviving and protecting public sentiment, safety, order, and the economy during this first phase. Hancock has a reputation for speaking to early and that's what he's done.
What matters? Ventilators, and the correct personal equipment. For the forseeable. Personally I would not be suprised to see further measures enacted. They may help greatly. Right now, more and more people are asking 'when's it over?' When we're out of the woods. We're barely out of the carpark, to steal someone else's analogy. Same woods as Italy? Maybe. We've talked as being on the same path as them but realistically we are saying we've seen the same species of tree at the same density. I think it's a certainty we are going in deeper than them, for now.
Any consensus in moving forward will have to come from leadership. They barely know how to get through the next month. Then figure out where that month leaves us. Anything beyond that, sure, wargame, but be prepared to throw it all away and start again. Publicly, I think they've got to cut out the speculation. It is just going to eat away at people's discipline and consent to remain indoors. It's pathetic - and I'm more aiming at the media than anyone else. Testing became 'the' story, we got a very flimsy promise, right, next question, what happens when it's all over? Fucksakes. Ventilators and staff levels disappear from the agenda. And the public need to prepare themselves for the long run, and for accepting that we are headed into the unknown. People and businesses need to focus about making adjustments within the rules, or how they can might cope with further measures.