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Exit Poll to current (9 to declare): Labour - spot on Conservative - actual down 12 LibDems - actual up 10 SNP - actual up 2 Greens - actual up 2 Reform - actual down 9

Lib Dems are about right though aren't they - 10% of seats overall.

I heard Buckland and Alexander's excellent speeches and then turned in. Good thing I didn't miss anything.

The Conservatives are going to have an interesting time. A new leader will be needed - the Braverman/Badenoch wing will drag them close to Reform, Hunt will pull them the other way probably. The MPs have to look at how to resolve the challenge of Reform, as that should be the main goal...

I meant that the 9000 (I think) votes that Reform got did for her. Not sure who the 6000 vote independent was

I think the mehness of the outcome is partly because it was known all the way through that Labour were going to win. Maybe it'll turn out to not be a bad thing - they'll know they're not especially loved, and might improve their standing if they do a good job.

And she's gone - 600 ish votes, down from 26k. Reform has taken her out.

Nothing becomes Liz Truss in politics as the way she's leaving it. Bizarre that the returning officer clearly hasn't been told what's going on.

Truss out? Ten minutes before the expected announcement and she's not there! What's going on with some of these places - recounts in both Norfolk seats, Witham (Patel) not announced yet, Wycombe (Baker) not announced yet.

Destruction in Sunderland Central for Conservatives, down from 15k to 5700. Reform got 5k more than Brexit did last time - so 5k overall fewer voting. Double the majority for Labour there (2.8k to 6k) Greens doubled their vote.

The thing Baker has going against him is that the Brexit Party did not stand there last time. He won by 4200 over Labour. The voting will be a different kettle of fish than those where they already did. It does seems quite a lot different from <1% though!

Public relations or Proportional representation?!

Possible, but it's years away. Where will they situate any such merged party politically? If they stay on the right edge, I don't think there are that many votes available to them. Much comes down to what Labour do, and if they open a door for more moderate Conservatism

It's the Farage persona of blokeism. Spouts lots that sounds good but is built on sand. The question will be whether Reform can find a new cause for the next election - UKIP wanted a Brexit vote, Brexit Party wanted to force the issue, Reform want to... um, drive the Conservatives some more...

It's something Curtice said - the % seats is by taking a lot where they had c. 25% vote. Have 30-40 of those, and it might be 8-10 seats. The votes are going from Conservatives, not Labour (so far).

Blyth is a newly changed constituency, but the notional numbers there has Labour 20k to 20k Con 14k to 6k Farage 4k to 10k Lib dems 2k to 1k Same as Sunderland then in balance.

down from 57.8 to 52.1 Low turnout presumably benefits Reform?? % vote to Labour was higher though (40.7 up to 47.1). It looks like the Labour vote held up pretty well.

Based on that one result: Only if a lot have gone from Con->Lab, Lab->Ref. Labour got 2k more than last time. The Conservative vote went to the Farage party.

About the same turnout as 2019, I think. Winning with 18k, 16k last time.

It's not new though, it's the Brexit party rebadged. The Farage party. Last time - Labour 16k (so up 2k, I think) Con - 13 k (down 7k this time) Brexit - 6k (up 5 in the new name)