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Very true - but I don't think that's what we're seeing in the US polls. If it's the same polling company comparing their one weekly poll, then all those X is +1 and Y is -1, don't prove anything on their own. However, where you have multiple polls combined, showing a trend over time, then...

Bizarrely, voters in the US are "registered" as Democrat/Republican/independent, and with early voting, the numbers of each are released as they vote. So, they know in which areas of the country people are voting, and they know if they are registered to a particular party. However, plenty of...

You need to be careful following the overall lead in the US. Trump and George W. Bush, both won their first terms even though they got less votes. Trump was more than 2% behind when he won last time. It all comes down to a handful of swing states, and they're all really close. At the moment the...

I don't think Nate Silver has any involvement with 538 any more. He criticised them a while back for being too positive towards Biden (obviously before Biden stepped down). Agree that the US polls do have caveats compared to the UK, as the rules they follow aren't as strict. There was some...

One thing we know about Pep is that he doesn't take chances. With Rodri out he's probably been more cautious than normal at the season start, especially as we've had, statistically a harder start than all but a couple of teams. We also don't know how the new CL will pan out either, so, where...

Clearly nothing will change from the goal on Sunday, as the 'loophole' would affect half the corners we see every week. We regularly get these 'interfering' goals, and there are a handful each season that are much more worthy of debate that the Silva one. Just a comment on the Villa 'loophole'...

I didn't think it was a point about the officials - more that if anyone felt it was obstruction/offside, or the keeper thought he was fouled, that they would have complained, as pretty much all teams do.

You're paying extra for the cosplay experience.

Ultimately, it was quite handy that O'Neil provided a neat example of what does constitute offside in that situation. Showing them side by side pretty much destroys any argument that Silva is having an effect on the keeper.

I know that's a joke, but I wonder if he could occasionally step back outside the box, just to mix things up. It would certainly drag the defence around a lot more, and create a little more space. And if there's a break, he's faster and stronger than Rico.

I don't think you can chicken and egg this. As far as I can see, he posted on the 6th October, saying Trump was ahead. After that Harris actually went back in front on Betfair and Smarkets, before Trump started getting a significant jump on the 10th. That followed a few polls coming out, which...

I'm not sure about this one, as all the betting markets have moved to a similar extent. Obviously they are strongly linked, as any differences between online markets tend to be mopped up pretty quickly, but the polling has been moving towards Trump too, so it's not a huge surprise. If the...

Not sure if it's just coincidence, but I've seen people with beer in the stands at the Etihad a couple of times this season already. I don't remember seeing it previously, but maybe I've just not noticed it.

I said this the other day, but unless the likes of Nye Bevan were Balirites, the Labour party have wanted to get more people with health issues into work, throughout their history. Supporting people with disabilities, and improving people's health are pretty basic Labour policies. I didn't see...

Not a fan of Jenrick, but this is spot on. Gove coming over all "I'm friends with both", "I respect both", "I look like a Tory too, so I understand", but in reality he knows exactly what he's doing, and wanted to get the "Tory boy" idea out there. Gove is one of the most poisonous political...

The interview was a grim watch. Basically dismissing the fact that Jenrick has 3 kids, because they're a bit older, and Chope has heard that Kemi spends a lot of time with her family! Tying himself in knots, trying to pretend it's not just because she's a woman.

Is this just a trick to get Arsenal to write to the PL, saying they've had second thoughts?

So, quite clearly not a "one man his dog social media operation". Unless that 4% is the dog's left ear :o

The Athletic? It may be many things, but it's not a "one man his dog social media operation'. It was bought a couple of years ago for over half a billion dollars, and they poached the chief football writers from a few of the national newspapers when they launched. I would not be surprised if...

The blue light escort wasn't for Starmer. Swift had just cancelled dates in Austria due to a terrorist plot. She was considering cancelling the London dates too, and apparently asked for extra security. Given the fuss about the tour in the first place, the fact that we've had a terrorist...