2020 US Elections

[domalino]

Can you provide examples of a Republican controlled senate appointing a liberal judge and a Democrat controlled senate appointing a conservative judge?

Was RBG a moderate? Was Scalia? What about Thomas?

I think the idea that the Supreme Court was always full of moderates before Trump and that Coney Barratt and Kavanaugh are some extreme cases is, politely, absolutely bonkers.

Ruth Bader Ginsberg was voted in 96-3. Scalia was voted in 98-0.

And you're trying to compare them to who, Amy Coney Barrett? 52-48. Kavanaugh? 50-48?

This is entirely the point. The way everyone before McConnell/Trump handled supreme court nominations is that you nominated someone who would get bipartisan support, because they might lean left or right, but they were proper, respectable judges.

They weren't fundamentalist catholics with 2 years experience as a judge who think contraception should be banned.

If you can't see the difference you are being wilfully stupid.

 

[RandomJ]

Any rough estimate on when the result will be announced?

 

[cjn]

Was very close to writing in for @Bigga but went with Joe Biden in the end. Very tough call. Also there was a line down the block at 6:15 in the morning, which I imagine says good things about turnout this time around.

 

[cjn]

Any rough estimate on when the result will be announced?

In the scenarios where Biden wins comfortably we'll likely know by around 10 or 11pm New York time. Anything less than that, at some point tomorrow.

 

[aguerrrroooooooooooo]

In 2016, Hillary Clinton made her last big public appearance in Pittsburgh, speaking in front of Pittsburgh University's famous Cathedral of Learning landmark. Yesterday Biden (with Lady Gaga) was also there.

Hope that's not an omen!

It makes sense. If he wins Pennsylvania he probably wins the election

 

[aguerrrroooooooooooo]

If this final Iowa poll is remotely true then Trump’s done. He took Iowa by 10 points in 2016.

2020 Election Forecast

Latest forecast of the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

He's still favoured to win it but it's much closer, he should be sweating more about Texas. I think it will stay red but it's by no means a cert, if he does lose Texas though it's over

 

[Damocles]

Are gun-toting militia roaming the streets and government buildings threatening, or actually shooting, people that disagree with them with the tacit approval of trump?
Antifa v blm?
mask v non-mask?

Did trump not call for a ' Total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the US'?

I'm well aware of Americas need for 'an enemy' and its history. TRump has managed to undo any good work on race relations from the last 50 years in his desire to produce that much needed 'enemy'

let's not pretend trump hasn't made the US a royally fucked up place at the moment.

We're basically arguing timing at this point.

We agree that the US is fucked. I think it's fucked because American culture is fucked and this predates Trump, who is a symptom of that culture rather than the cause. Healthy democracies don't vote in game show hosts with no previous political experience with highly unrealistic promises that claim their democracy is corrupt. The very fact he claimed their democracy is corrupt with his swamp draining rhetoric and still had a massive amount of the voters voting for him is indeed evidence of the fact that many Americans already believed their democracy to be corrupt.

I think about the lynchings and the Christian fundamentalists/evangelical streak and the race riots that seem to happened every decade or so, and the Wall Street influence and the lobbyist system and the overly partisan rhetoric and the PATRIOT Act (and successsors) and the constant interventionalist foreign policy and the flag waving and the gun toting and the Pledge of Allegiance in schools and the fascist symbology and the fight against LGBT rights and the portrayal of Muslims in the media even predating 9/11 and Rodney King and OJ Simpson and the general worship of the military or soldiers and that 25% of the American people believe the Earth orbits the Sun and 75% or so believe in the literal existence of angels and the denial of climate change and the demonisation of the United Nations and the "vaccines cause autism" thing and the homelessness situation including how they're portrayed in US media and the "gang culture" and the corporate exploitation of social movements and the constant non-stop propaganda by the media, politicians and corporations.

I think of all these and when somebody says "it's Trump fault that our country is divided" or some such then it never rings true to me. I'm sure that he hasn't helped but that horse bolted long ago.

 

[aguerrrroooooooooooo]

Do not believe any polls where one of the choices is controversial. We've seen it with Brexit, Trump 1st time and 2019 General Election.

The reality is people are not stupid and are hardly going to declare their true voting intentions if those intentions are going to lead to people calling them racist etc. They will however still go and vote for what they believe. You can guarantee that for every newly registered voter on the back of BLM there will also be one who will register to support Trump. Remember he doesn't have to win the popular vote, just the electoral college and can do so with probably as little as 45% of the popular vote as long as he takes the key states. In short this is going down to the wire and we could see some states so close that the military votes arriving from overseas, and 2 to 3 days late, could swing it either way.

Don't look at betting as they work of exit polls and rely on people being truthful. At 9.55pm on Brexit Day, I was stood outside a William Hill packing up my Vote Leave paraphernalia and the girl left the betting office telling me we had no chance and Leave was now 10/1 against! Of course I accepted that and went off to my local count very subdued. By 11pm as the 1st boxes opened I could see that what the polls had said and what people had voted were 2 different things. By 2am, there were Remainers in tears as my local area recorded 57% Leave and similar margins were being shown across the UK.

I'm not fussed who wins in America today as frankly we have enough homeland issues to deal with but to discount Trump based on media bias would be foolish.

It's very interesting you say this, there are some polling groups that try and take into account the supposed shy trump vote and as a result have him down as winning again.

 

[mat]

Any rough estimate on when the result will be announced?

End of November by the Supreme Court.

 

[I'm With Stupid]

It's very interesting you say this, there are some polling groups that try and take into account the supposed shy trump vote and as a result have him down as winning again.

This is a good podcast about the bullshit of polls.

Let's be honest, you have a one-in-two chance of being correct, and then 4 years later, you're wheeled out as some sort of expert, but if you get it wrong, nobody notices.