I get the impression that Trump supporters are much more likely to be vocal and make themselves visible which means that there aren't necessarily more of them. A vote from a vocal visible supporter is still only worth the same as a vote from an average guy who doesn't advertise his political leanings.I legitimately have no idea how this will go.
I live and work in and around Boston MA which is pretty heavily Democratic obviously. I see Trump signs EVERYWHERE. Zero in '16.
Now of course he isn't winning Massachusetts. But what about New Hampshire right next door? I wonder.
And a month ago went with the Mrs. on a little drive to visit family in Ohio. Drove through PA, Ohio. Trump signs, stickers, etc at about 10:1 ratio. Saw in Ohio a level of support I'd never seen for any candidate in 20+ years.
WTF is going on? All major polls say what they did in '16. Trump losing heavily. But there is the alternate universe of Republican-oriented operations that have Trump ahead in all the "swing states."
If he ends up winning I will be 0% surprised. Other than on the basis of "how the fuck does an incumbent win with the country in utter chaos?"
I think they're way more vocal THIS TIME. One would hope they turn out fewer in number.I get the impression that Trump supporters are much more likely to be vocal and make themselves visible which means that there aren't necessarily more of them. A vote from a vocal visible supporter is still only worth the same as a vote from an average guy who doesn't advertise his political leanings.
It's just my impression though and I might well be totally wrong.
They didn't though, did they?WTF is going on? All major polls say what they did in '16. Trump losing heavily.
I was going to say -- it's a little irritating to hear this myth peddled.They didn't though, did they?
It would hit the wank wall if that happens. So much faith restored in humanity.I'm going to stick my neck out and suggest that he's going to get absolutely obliterated next Tuesday - and in so doing I'm fully taking into account what happened in 2016.
Think he could lose Texas, Florida and Georgia.
He might be alright in Alabama and West Virginia though.
In election terms, Arizona is essentially centred on one county, Maricopa, which includes the Phoenix metropolitan area. They've already elected a Democrat as senator since 2016 but there are two or three other factors that might well influence things. The first is that many people have moved to Phoenix from solidly Democratic California as house prices are much lower (but are going up significantly). That's influencing a longer term move to the Democrats. Second is the high incidence of Latino/Hispanic voters, who are a solid Biden constituency. The third potential factor is, like Florida, there are many retired people there and seniors is another constituency who may have rejected Trump.He could hold one of Pennsylvania, Michigan or Wisconsin
He wins Florida and Arizona and there is a path before Texas is even in play?
The movement of Californians and Northeasterners to other parts of the US is a huge driver to changing dynamics in the EC, as you quite correctly point out. Tracking this stuff is what I do for my job. This dynamic already flipped Colorado and Nevada blue. It is moving North Carolina and Georgia in that direction as well as Arizona and Texas. It's taken longer in Arizona because of the more conservative retiree base (and don't forget it was the home to Barry Goldwater). At some point down the line it may do the same for Tennessee and South Carolina. Florida has a much odder dynamic because of naturalized international in-migration over time and the growing retiree base which has historically tended to be more conservative, and the fact that, as we say here, "In Florida, the more north you go, the more south you get." North Florida can rival Alabama in conservatism.In election terms, Arizona is essentially centred on one county, Maricopa, which includes the Phoenix metropolitan area. They've already elected a Democrat as senator since 2016 but there are two or three other factors that might well influence things. The first is that many people have moved to Phoenix from solidly Democratic California as house prices are much lower (but are going up significantly). That's influencing a longer term move to the Democrats. Second is the high incidence of Latino/Hispanic voters, who are a solid Biden constituency. The third potential factor is, like Florida, there are many retired people there and seniors is another constituency who may have rejected Trump.
When I was in Pennsylvania before the 2016 election, it was interesting that people weren't keen on hillary Clinton as she was seen as both tainted and a "professional politician". People wanted to try someone different and Trump perfectly fitted the bill. I think peple will be happier to go back to a professional politician this time.
We'll see next week though.