2020 US Elections

[SWP's back]

Trump has fought to bring their jobs back and they know it.

Ahahahahahaha. That’s brilliant mate. Thanks for that.

 

[SWP's back]

I suspect Trump could now hold Florida.

Early ballots have it at 3.4m Biden and 3.3m cast for Trump.

That's bad news for Biden as the Democratic vote was motivated to go earlier.

Most interestingly, Miami-Dade County has Trump eight points up in the polling - for context - Clinton beat Trump in Miami-Dade by almost double the votes back in 2016.

This is Florida two days ago:



Also worth noting the GOP pushed very hard for Mail in voting in Florida for Republicans on their list and always have done in Florida.

edit: you also didn’t mention the 3m that have voted of no party affiliation (which Biden leads by 30 points in polling)

 

[Phil1]

Ahahahahahaha.

It’s of no surprise to anybody who reads his posts that he would say something along those lines.
His political views always err on the side of unpleasant.

 

[SWP's back]

It’s of no surprise to anybody who reads his posts that he would say something along those lines.
His political views always err on the side of unpleasant.

He thinks that being conservative or Tory means one has to support Trump and thus takes little or no interest in the actual goings on other than Fox headlines and the odd Trump statement.

 

[SebastianBlue]

The fact Biden has had to go back to Ohio tells us everything we need to know - it's not the banker they were suggesting it was just a few weeks back.

There are reports Trump is resonating with Florida Hispanic voters, coupled with some truly bizarre Miami-Dade predictions that he's up eight or nine points on Biden in an area Clinton hammered Trump in.

Texas, Florida and Ohio could go either way, which is why I think Trump has more than a puncher's chance, certainly if you listen to that loon Michael Moore who stated this weekend to half Biden's poll number predictions and then also factor in a margin of error of 3%.

If Trump takes Texas and Florida, it is gonna be a long few weeks.

You’re confusing registered electors with votes cast. Trump has managed to piss off a large number of elderly registered Republicans. Not every registered Republican will be voting for Trump by any means.

Even if trump takes Texas, Florida and Ohio it will not help him if biden wins Pennsylvania. For trump to win I think he needs all 4 of these states

As I said earlier in the thread (though it fell on the deaf ears of our resident WUMing penguin): by nearly all objective analysis Trump’s path to “legitimate” victory is very narrow (538, NPR, Brookings, several prominent political analysts, etc.). More so than even 2016.

And calling it “legitimate” covers all manner of sin, anyway. The Trump admin has perpetrated widespread voter suppression, tampered with and in some cases dismantled the election system, intentionally brought harm to opposition voters, and welcomed foreign interference and manipulation.

If he stays in office, regardless of exactly how it happens, it will be because of his camp’s (and allies’) efforts to subvert the legitimate election results. The next few days will just largely determine if he stays in office due to the efforts undertaken before the election, during the election, or after the election.

My money is on all three, personally — if he stays in office, that is.

FWIW, I think it comes down to both Pennsylvania and Florida, as the Trump camp and Republicans already have a massive vote suppression apparatus in play in both states, and has an army of lawyers waiting to pounce on the absentee and provisional ballot tabulation in those states on 4 November. They will be doing the same elsewhere, but they are focusing more resources on PA and FL because they know that is where they will get the greatest marginal returns.

And I am not convinced both won’t go the way of 2000.

If they do, the next few months will likely be even more crazy than the seven that came before, if that were possible.

May need to board up my windows at the end of the week.

 

[SebastianBlue]

You haven't offered any reasonable discourse though. You're just a typical hysterical shout loud guy who thinks that that validates themselves, when it clearly doesn't. You're weak.

You’re projecting.

But, more importantly for this thread, you’re WUMing at this point.

Continue and you’ll get some time off to think about how you are projecting and what it means for your credibility.

 

[Trevor Morley's Tache]

As I said earlier in the thread (though it fell on the deaf ears of our resident WUMing penguin): by nearly all objective analysis Trump’s path to “legitimate” victory is very narrow (538, NPR, Brookings, several prominent political analysts, etc.). More so than even 2016.

And calling it “legitimate” covers all manner of sin, anyway. The Trump admin has perpetrated widespread voter suppression, tampered with and in some cases dismantled the election system, intentionally brought harm to opposition voters, and welcomed foreign interference and manipulation.

If he stays in office, regardless of exactly how it happens, it will be because of his camp’s (and allies’) efforts to subvert the legitimate election results. The next few days will just largely determine if he stays in office due to the efforts undertaken before the election, during the election, or after the election.

My money is on all three, personally — if he stays in office, that is.

FWIW, I think it comes down to both Pennsylvania and Florida, as the Trump camp and Republicans already have a massive vote suppression apparatus in play in both states, and has an army of lawyers waiting to pounce on the absentee and provisional ballot tabulation in those states on 4 November. They will be doing the same elsewhere, but they are focusing more resources on PA and FL because they know that is where they will get the greatest marginal returns.

And I am not convinced both won’t go the way of 2000.

If they do, the next few months will likely be even more crazy than the seven that came before, if that were possible.

May need to board up my windows at the end of the week.

Given what went on last time, there is always going to be that niggling doubt.

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

Won’t age well

For the 48,892nd time, these aren’t predictions.

 

[aguerrrroooooooooooo]

As I said earlier in the thread (though it fell on the deaf ears of our resident WUMing penguin): by nearly all objective analysis Trump’s path to “legitimate” victory is very narrow (538, NPR, Brookings, several prominent political analysts, etc.). More so than even 2016.

And calling it “legitimate” covers all manner of sin, anyway. The Trump admin has perpetrated widespread voter suppression, tampered with and in some cases dismantled the election system, intentionally brought harm to opposition voters, and welcomed foreign interference and manipulation.

If he stays in office, regardless of exactly how it happens, it will be because of his camp’s (and allies’) efforts to subvert the legitimate election results. The next few days will just largely determine if he stays in office due to the efforts undertaken before the election, during the election, or after the election.

My money is on all three, personally — if he stays in office, that is.

FWIW, I think it comes down to both Pennsylvania and Florida, as the Trump camp and Republicans already have a massive vote suppression apparatus in play in both states, and has an army of lawyers waiting to pounce on the absentee and provisional ballot tabulation in those states on 4 November. They will be doing the same elsewhere, but they are focusing more resources on PA and FL because they know that is where they will get the greatest marginal returns.

And I am not convinced both won’t go the way of 2000.

If they do, the next few months will likely be even more crazy than the seven that came before, if that were possible.

May need to board up my windows at the end of the week.

If you look at 538 it's still feasible biden wins as long as he takes Arizona instead of Pennsylvania or Florida. The more you look at how many states biden is now up in, the harder I'm seeing it for trump to win. I still give trump a chance of course but I'm slowly becoming optimistic

 

[SebastianBlue]

If you look at 538 it's still feasible biden wins as long as he takes Arizona instead of Pennsylvania or Florida. The more you look at how many states biden is now up in, the harder I'm seeing it for trump to win. I still give trump a chance of course but I'm slowly becoming optimistic

I am less optimistic, but certainly hope my fears prove unfounded.

 

[BobKowalski]

There’s no way Biden’s in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Minnesota if he’s 9 points up in his internal polling. For context, a Republican hasn’t won Minnesota since 1972.
If Trump wins it will be the hard working men and women of middle America who will be the decisive factor, the people who were abandoned by the coastal elites as their jobs were shipped abroad by successive administrations. Trump has fought to bring their jobs back and they know it. I think they’ll turn out in large numbers tomorrow to keep him.

So, basically fuck everyone else, the US consists entirely of people in Middle America. The coastal states where most of the people live and where over two-thirds of US GDP is generated can take a hike.

Rule by an elite minority. Yeah, that will really end well.

 

[@BluePhil8]

So, basically fuck everyone else, the US consists entirely of people in Middle America. The coastal states where most of the people live and where over two-thirds of US GDP is generated can take a hike.

Rule by an elite minority. Yeah, that will really end well.

Do you think the North of England should be ruled by the South?

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

The fact Biden has had to go back to Ohio tells us everything we need to know - it's not the banker they were suggesting it was just a few weeks back.

There are reports Trump is resonating with Florida Hispanic voters, coupled with some truly bizarre Miami-Dade predictions that he's up eight or nine points on Biden in an area Clinton hammered Trump in.

Texas, Florida and Ohio could go either way, which is why I think Trump has more than a puncher's chance, certainly if you listen to that loon Michael Moore who stated this weekend to half Biden's poll number predictions and then also factor in a margin of error of 3%.

If Trump takes Texas and Florida, it is gonna be a long few weeks.

Who is "they"? When was a Biden win ever considered a "banker" in Ohio? I'd bet this will be the tightest margin in the nation by percentage.

He's in Minnesota because the polls have tightened there, and he's not taking any chances. It's the smart move -- doing the opposite of Clinton -- especially as MN's voter turnout is the highest of any state in America, or has been historically.

FL is interesting given the large number of independent voters there (who, as someone noted, are heavily in favor of Biden) but I don't think the Biden campaign has ever counted on FL nor TX nor should they.

PA is the critical state -- the actual Keystone State! -- this time around, but whatever happens there, but I think the earliest tell for the evening will be North Carolina. It's neck and neck there. When Clinton lost it, it was the first truly worrying sign. If Biden can sneak it, I can't see him losing.

 

[aguerrrroooooooooooo]

I am less optimistic, but certainly hope my fears prove unfounded.

A few days ago I had a gut feeling trump would win. However if you look at 2016 polls trump began to close the gap before election day. Bidens lead is steady right now

 

[hgblue]

He thinks that being conservative or Tory means one has to support Trump and thus takes little or no interest in the actual goings on other than Fox headlines and the odd Trump statement.

Trump delivered the highest number of people working in American history, the lowest unemployment in 50 years, the lowest Black and Hispanic unemployment ever.
Trump is the first president since the 70s not to start or escalate a conflict, has brought troops home from foreign wars, and has achieved numerous peace deals in the Middle East which have been beyond most of his predecessors.
Trump has renegotiated NAFTA, replacing it with the much more worker friendly USMCA, placed tariffs on China to force them to sign onto a much fairer trading relationship.
Trump has introduced opportunity zones with billions of dollars of investment going into African American communities, record funding for historically black colleges, signed criminal justice reform into law, correcting some of the injustices created by Biden’s crime bill.
Trump has secured the southern border and ended the policy of catch and release which has resulted in a reduction in the number of illegal border crossings and a bigger focus on targeting the gangs.
Trump has appointed Gorsuch, Kavanaugh and Barrett to the Supreme Court.
Trump has cut taxes so that the average American family is 2,000 dollars per year better off, and cut corporate taxes which have encouraged American companies to return home creating extra job opportunities for the American worker.
Trump has slashed regulations enabling America to become energy independent for the first time in decades and now actually a net energy exporter.
Trump has eliminated ISIS and killed terrorists like Al Bagdadi and Solimani, making the world a much safer place.
I could go on but from the perspective of a Conservative he has done an excellent job so far.

 

[hgblue]

For the 48,892nd time, these aren’t predictions.

How convenient ;)

 

[Trevor Morley's Tache]

Trump delivered the highest number of people working in American history, the lowest unemployment in 50 years, the lowest Black and Hispanic unemployment ever.
Trump is the first president since the 70s not to start or escalate a conflict, has brought troops home from foreign wars, and has achieved numerous peace deals in the Middle East which have been beyond most of his predecessors.
Trump has renegotiated NAFTA, replacing it with the much more worker friendly USMCA, placed tariffs on China to force them to sign onto a much fairer trading relationship.
Trump has introduced opportunity zones with billions of dollars of investment going into African American communities, record funding for historically black colleges, signed criminal justice reform into law, correcting some of the injustices created by Biden’s crime bill.
Trump has secured the southern border and ended the policy of catch and release which has resulted in a reduction in the number of illegal border crossings and a bigger focus on targeting the gangs.
Trump has appointed Gorsuch, Kavanaugh and Barrett to the Supreme Court.
Trump has cut taxes so that the average American family is 2,000 dollars per year better off, and cut corporate taxes which have encouraged American companies to return home creating extra job opportunities for the American worker.
Trump has slashed regulations enabling America to become energy independent for the first time in decades and now actually a net energy exporter.
Trump has eliminated ISIS and killed terrorists like Al Bagdadi and Solimani, making the world a much safer place.
I could go on but from the perspective of a Conservative he has done an excellent job so far.

Wow,

So many Fox news talking points, and none of them hold much water, apart from the stone cold fact that he's appointed 3 Supreme Court Justices.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

Wow,

So many Fox news talking points, and none of them hold much water, apart from the stone cold fact that he's appointed 3 highly partisan Supreme Court Justices.

Edited for accuracy.

 

[aguerrrroooooooooooo]

Biden up to 90% win likelihood now according to 538.
Hillary was in the 70s on election night in 2016

 

[Blue Hefner]

I have no words to describe this