2020 US Elections

[MillionMilesAway]

No way Senate turns Blue without Biden winning. The turnout for one creates the other.

With a Blue Senate & House, legislation would get written and passed, but there’s no way the Dems create the 60 vote veto-proof majority, so Trump would just veto EVERYTHING, forcing Dems to BUY Republican votes with watered down legislation!

Impeachment is always an option, but could you imagine the furor? Armed insurrection, especially in open carry states like MI!

The Founding Fathers called it checks and balances, and you’ve seen how those “checks” AND “balances” have worked with an autocratic President and Senate willing to do his bidding...plus the unfettered use of Executive Orders!

We need to just throw the Rep Bums out and move VERY SWIFTLY TO ENACT THE DEM AGENDA. They have 2 years MAX to try to get it done, because “off year elections” (2022) generally go against the party in power.

Don't worry, I'm not arguing that it's preferable, but it would be amusing to watch, if completely destructive.

I don't really see that impeaching him would make much difference either - presumably the VP then takes over, or is it different in the case of impeachment?

 

[ChicagoBlue]

Tell me when Biden is 100%!

Trump already saying if it even “looks like he is ahead” on Election Night he is going to declare victory!

Then, his spokesman goes on TV to say once Trump does that, Biden and the fraudsters may try to “steal the election” from Trump!

Trump also has PHALANX OF LAWYERS in the Swing States, ready to contest elections and votes as soon as the polls close!

The levels of intimidation and threats is historic. While black people are not being beaten by Police in the streets YET, I fear that TOMORROW (Election Day) will result in violence, and possibly even death(s).

Blue Tsunami is NEEDED, because things are NEVER what they seem in the polls, especially when 50 states are at play.

 

[SebastianBlue]

A few days ago I had a gut feeling trump would win. However if you look at 2016 polls trump began to close the gap before election day. Bidens lead is steady right now

Yes, but I do think people are still underestimating the Trump camp’s election subversion apparatus that has been working for months and will continue to do so through the next few weeks (or more).

I absolutely agree with your and many others assessments of what should *legitimately* occur based on current indicators.

I am just not confident we will see that *legitimate* outcome play out. When I frame this sort of thing in my professional work, I say “we believe there is more uncertainty than is being indicated in the data at this time and caution against definitive predictions or prescriptions.”

When the incumbent leader is autocratic, completely unrestrained by their government, and backed by malicious foreign interests and their own domestic insurgency, the system itself is compromised and so confidence in expected outcomes based on conventional inputs should be fairly low.

 

[SWP's back]

Trump already saying if it even “looks like he is ahead” on Election Night he is going to declare victory!

I told penguin that this morning and he said without irony that I “had no basis for such a claim”. Even though he’d stated it along with his henchman.

 

[SebastianBlue]

Tell me when Biden is 100%!

Trump already saying if it even “looks like he is ahead” on Election Night he is going to declare victory!

Then, his spokesman goes on TV to say once Trump does that, Biden and the fraudsters may try to “steal the election” from Trump!

Trump also has PHALANX OF LAWYERS in the Swing States, ready to contest elections and votes as soon as the polls close!

The levels of intimidation and threats is historic. While black people are not being beaten by Police in the streets YET, I fear that TOMORROW (Election Day) will result in violence, and possibly even death(s).

Blue Tsunami is NEEDED, because things are NEVER what they seem in the polls, especially when 50 states are at play.

I told penguin that this morning and he said without irony that I “had no basis for such a claim”. Even though he’d stated it along with his henchman.

It is something many of us have been predicting he would do for quite awhile, both of you included, of course. And to be fair, it’s not as though it was a particularly long limb for us to go out on. Him admitting it publicly was also something most of us assumed he would eventually do, given that is his normal behaviour (shouting the normal whispered utterances to slowly normalise it).

And, as shown below (and in countless other recent Trump regime examples), his followers will back him to the hilt.

As Anand says, they have gone full Brownshirt.

 

[aguerrrroooooooooooo]

It is something many of us have been predicting he would do for quite awhile, both of you included, of course. And to be fair, it’s not as though it was a particularly long limb for us to go out on. Him admitting it publicly was also something most of us assumed he would eventually do, given that is his normal behaviour (shouting the normal whispered utterances to slowly normalise it).

And, as shown below (and in countless other recent Trump regime examples), his followers will back him to the hilt.

As Anand says, they have gone full Brownshirt.

Oh my

 

[SebastianBlue]

Oh my

Although it is possible they were unintentional, Rubio’s arm gestures during his address were also... questionable, to say the least.

Most politicians go out of their way to avoid those types of arm movements just to avoid any sort of accusation of allusion, reasonable or otherwise.

It is interesting that quite a few of Trump’s most ardent supporters do not seem to make that same effort.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

Yes, but I do think people are still underestimating the Trump camp’s election subversion apparatus that has been working for months and will continue to do so through the next few weeks (or more).

I absolutely agree with your and many others assessments of what should *legitimately* occur based on current indicators.

I am just not confident we will see that *legitimate* outcome play out. When I frame this sort of thing in my professional work, I say “we believe there is more uncertainty than is being indicated in the data at this time and caution against definitive predictions or prescriptions.”

When the incumbent leader is autocratic, completely unrestrained by their government, and backed by malicious foreign interests and their own domestic insurgency, the system itself is compromised and so confidence in expected outcomes based on conventional inputs should be fairly low.

The issue is that for Trumps election subversion to work then the turnout would have to be down, turnout is way up at this point. People want to vote in this election and if turnout goes through the roof then it should be good news for Dems. If you offered the Dems a 10% up tick in turnout a year ago they would have ripped your arm off. We already have some states with turnout over 100% before election day. If you offered them 10% up in turnout and 10% up in national polling they would have ripped both your arms off.

No one is comfortable until its done and Trump will no doubt claim victory and try to brass it out that he is the winner, even if he is 10m votes and 4 states down. But the signs are good - just have to wait now and see how it unfolds.

 

[aguerrrroooooooooooo]

Although it is possible they were unintentional, Rubio’s arm gestures during his address were also... questionable, to say the least.

Most politicians go out of their way to avoid those types of arm movements just to avoid any sort of accusation of allusion, reasonable or otherwise.

It is interesting that quite a few of Trump’s most ardent supporters do not seem to make that same effort.

I didn't notice that first time, 26 seconds he holds his arm like that for a good second

 

[mat]

Highest ever turnout of the Latino vote expected tomorrow. Interesting some of them being interviewed are saying they are Voting Biden despite voting Republican before, because "I see the same traits in Trump's as a dictator"

 

[SebastianBlue]

The issue is that for Trumps election subversion to work then the turnout would have to be down, turnout is way up at this point. People want to vote in this election and if turnout goes through the roof then it should be good news for Dems. If you offered the Dems a 10% up tick in turnout a year ago they would have ripped your arm off. We already have some states with turnout over 100% before election day. If you offered them 10% up in turnout and 10% up in national polling they would have ripped both your arms off.

No one is comfortable until its done and Trump will no doubt claim victory and try to brass it out that he is the winner, even if he is 10m votes and 4 states down. But the signs are good - just have to wait now and see how it unfolds.

I agree the seemingly significantly increased turnout compared to recent elections is a good sign (national rates may not be quite as high as is being projected right now based on shift of in-person to absentee voting in certain states; however, the polling of some of the “new” voters is indeed encouraging).

But, again, Trump’s election subversion apparatus is much bigger and more deeply imbedded than many give credit. And the Electoral College system allows for ways to manipulate margins in key states, which negates some of the benefit of increased turnout (Biden could still win the Popular Vote in a landslide and lose the Electoral College).

I know you tend to be more optimistic and I more pessimistic in this regard based on our previous discussions, but I think we are both generally on the same page when it comes to the potential challenges to this current election.

As you say, we just have to wait and see how it unfolds now.

I am hoping for the best — I am just planning for the worst, especially as I will have to live through it, at least for a time.

I suppose I should stop being the naysayer in the thread, though.

 

[Trevor Morley's Tache]

Although it is possible they were unintentional, Rubio’s arm gestures during his address were also... questionable, to say the least.

Most politicians go out of their way to avoid those types of arm movements just to avoid any sort of accusation of allusion, reasonable or otherwise.

It is interesting that quite a few of Trump’s most ardent supporters do not seem to make that same effort.

I bit like all the Trumper's who have 'accidentally' flashed the White Power symbol.

 

[SebastianBlue]

I bit like all the Trumper's who have 'accidentally' flashed the White Power symbol.

Indeed.

Obviously I am being... restrained in my assessment.

 

[Ballymagash Blue]

Rubio’s a horrible little man. It’s depressing enough looking at these guys from thousands of miles away. But imagine having to live in the same country as them. My sincere sympathy to our fellow blues who do.

 

[SebastianBlue]

I didn't notice that first time, 26 seconds he holds his arm like that for a good second

A longer video I saw elsewhere shows him do something similar several times.

As I said, it may be unintentional, but more astute politicians do everything they can to avoid even accidental allusion of that kind.

 

[BigOscar]

Highest ever turnout of the Latino vote expected tomorrow. Interesting some of them being interviewed are saying they are Voting Biden despite voting Republican before, because "I see the same traits in Trump's as a dictator"

You don't think Trump has nailed down the Cuban vote by saying Biden is a puppet of Castro? That's sure to show them how much he knows and cares about Cuba...

 

[domalino]

PA is the critical state -- the actual Keystone State! -- this time around, but whatever happens there, but I think the earliest tell for the evening will be North Carolina. It's neck and neck there. When Clinton lost it, it was the first truly worrying sign. If Biden can sneak it, I can't see him losing.

In Pennsylvania they can't open mail in ballots until 8pm and provisional ballots until after the mail ins have been counted.

538 predict that 6.8m votes will be cast, with Biden having 5pt advantage - roughly 3.6m to Biden and 3.2m to Trump.

If voting follows what happened in the primary, by 3am less than half Biden's votes will have been counted, but up to 70% of Trumps will have.

Which means that if Trump attempts to call the election on the night, he will likely win Pennsylvania 2.24m to 1.8m.

And around 3 million voters will have their vote ruled out.

If all votes are counted, there will likely be a 21 point swing in favour of Biden from 3am on Wednesday morning to when all the votes are counted.

And if anyone wanted to know why the Republicans are trying to set up the world's first "result must be on the night" election, that is why.

 

[SebastianBlue]

In Pennsylvania they can't open mail in ballots until 8pm and provisional ballots until after the mail ins have been counted.

538 predict that 6.8m votes will be cast, with Biden having 5pt advantage - roughly 3.6m to Biden and 3.2m to Trump.

If voting follows what happened in the primary, by 3am less than half Biden's votes will have been counted, but up to 70% of Trumps will have.

Which means that if Trump attempts to call the election on the night, he will likely win Pennsylvania 2.24m to 1.8m.

And around 3 million voters will have their vote ruled out.

If all votes are counted, there will likely be a 21 point swing in favour of Biden from 3am on Wednesday morning to when all the votes are counted.

And if anyone wanted to know why the Republicans are trying to set up the world's first "result must be on the night" election, that is why.

And why the Republicans were generally perfectly happy to allow the pandemic to run uncontrolled and for many vulnerable people to be displaced by the public health and economic fallout, as the majority of them would be likely Democratic voters and it increased the likelihood those individuals — if they even managed to vote given the other voter suppression campaigns — would be forced to cast absentee or provisional ballots.

As I have said in many other posts, the election subversion apparatus is much larger and more deeply embedded than many realise.

 

[DrBlueBob]

I just want to say that I think you're all cunts.

I'll be hurt if that doesn't include me.

 

[mat]

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/election/article246877307.html

Here we fucking go...

Two days after inspectors found dozens of undelivered ballots sitting in a post office in South Miami-Dade County, the U.S. Postal Service Office of Inspector General is preparing to sweep other mail facilities in Miami-Dade for ballots that haven’t reached their destination ahead of the Nov. 3 election.


Scott Pierce, the special agent in charge for the USPS Inspector General’s Southern Area Field Office, confirmed to the Miami Herald on Sunday afternoon that special agents “will be busy over the next couple of days conducting several station visits” at mail distribution centers in Miami-Dade.


Pierce wouldn’t disclose which locations or how many would be searched.



“Our investigation continues and, at this time, we aren’t releasing any additional statements,” he said.