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Michigan looks nailed on.
Wisconsin also looks nailed on assuming the votes left to count are from the cities rather than the countryside.
Nevada's close but again if those remaining are mostly from Clark County (Vegas) then it should be a shoe in.
Georgia is no better than 50/50.
Pennsylvania has got a 600,000 gap to close with 1.8M left to count so needs to be 2:1. That could be very close too.
North Carolina looks out of reach.

If Biden gets MI, WI and NV though, I think that gets him to 270 anyway.
Your maths is correct.

Biden was apparently getting something like 4:1 in the mail-in ballots counted in Erie County, which is the only other urban centre in Western PA. If he repeats that then he might bring PA home by a couple of hundred thousand votes. Still too tight to call though.
 
Think of it a little like the European Union, sort of. If it was more centralised.

Every country gets a certain amount of points for President based on their population. Whoever wins the most amount of those points becomes President of the EU. If UK votes 51% for Bob then Bob gets all of the UK points for the EU Presidency. However in other countries, they think that's stupid so if Bob gets 51% and Jim gets 49% then they split their points up and give some points to each candidate.
Can I convert my points into a cash prize?
 
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