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Ok cheers. Not been following the senate races that closely and not 100% on how it works, so maybe the flip just announced was already factored in. Just looking at GA for the second run off, wouldn't it be likely to go Rep seeing as the 3rd place dropout is a high scoring Rep?
Depends on the analysis, as I have seen some state the runoffs favour both Democrats, and some say the runoffs generally favour the Republicans, mostly for the reason you have referenced (total Republican vote share).

Personally, I think they favour the Democrats because their voter base will be absolutely rabid with voting (compared to relatively crestfallen Republicans), there are demographic changes happening in real time which are increasing the Democrat share of voters (which will continue to January for the runoffs), and I think both Republican candidates are going to lose popularity over the next few months, especially Loeffler (R) if she continues to align herself with Trump and act as if the pandemic isn’t happening (whilst making millions off it).

They will be tough races, though, with a narrow pool to convince to turn out and/or switch sides.

As @Gaudion M said, the target is to get both so Democrats will have control over the senate with Harris being one of the most active VPs since... Dick Cheney. ;-)
 
The reason he's in third places is because Loeffler is so unpopular with republicans.

She's the wife of an insanely rich guy and was appointed senator by the governor, but she's never won an election and a lot of them do not want her, even though she is a die hard trump fan. She and her husband sold off $15m worth of stock when they got secret briefings on the coronavirus, just before the market crashed and that's been bad for her.

So the question is, will Republicans go out and vote for a woman that only got 53% of the Republican vote? Will the Trump voting block back her now that Trump is gone and it's just the elite GOP left? Will the Republicans have the same turnout without the energising presence of Trump?

Democrats will definitely all fall in behind Warnock with senate control on the line, and all he needs is those votes and some of the independent vote to get over 50%.
Politically speaking I assume. I suspect not so bad fiscally speaking.
 
I agree with every word.

it seems a bit weird to me that despite a huge amount of States having toss ups before moving in a direction, there's a winner takes all situation in the end.

But, that tends to hide the numbers and why I don't believe in the 'Blue Wave' aspect people have purred about.

It just shows a lack of reality about the situation.
More of a Blue Glacier. Slow but inexorable.


Fascinating stuff on historical (and geological) reasons for voting patterns in the South


Love that. You reap what you sow.
 
Politically speaking I assume. I suspect not so bad fiscally speaking.

To be honest, I'm not sure it did. These people are nearly billionaires, and they saved maybe $10m?

IIRC she ended up spending almost that much on a massive Ad campaign to try and combat the bad PR she got for it and show how she used her money for good.
 
Pretty much. While I and many others are delighted to see the back of Trump, I think people need to understand this is not neccesarily a rejection of the Republican party; hell it's not even a full throated rejection of Trumpism by Americans.

The Democrats need to put in some serious work to make sure 2024 doesn't see the country go back to the red side, with what I imagine will be a far more palpable candidate than Trump
It's not obvious to me who that more palpable candidate will be. I'd guess there will be an almighty struggle within the GOP between the old guard and the populist Trumpers. And Biden's going to need to screw up -- but the set-up for him is like the set-up for Obama -- nation's economy on its ass but bottoming. And you'd have to expect the pandemic situation to improve dramatically if not be eradicated on his watch. If the economy is good, inflation is under control and people are healthy by 2024, even if Biden says "Thank you, I'm done" (which if he's healthy he might be hard-pressed to) a new Democrat will have a good tailwind, exogenous events notwithstanding. Can Kamala do it? I don't know. I have to tell you I have an unhealthy attraction to her for some reason (I mean a physical one :)). Would be great if she takes a lead on foreign affairs and gets a chance to play a toughie internationally.
 
The difference between all women and white women is incredible.

all men vs. white men is not that different, but the change for women is crazy.
This backward **** will certainly not be happy about the difference between men and women voting.

 
It's not obvious to me who that more palpable candidate will be. I'd guess there will be an almighty struggle within the GOP between the old guard and the populist Trumpers. And Biden's going to need to screw up -- but the set-up for him is like the set-up for Obama -- nation's economy on its ass but bottoming. And you'd have to expect the pandemic situation to improve dramatically if not be eradicated on his watch. If the economy is good, inflation is under control and people are healthy by 2024, even if Biden says "Thank you, I'm done" (which if he's healthy he might be hard-pressed to) a new Democrat will have a good tailwind, exogenous events notwithstanding. Can Kamala do it? I don't know. I have to tell you I have an unhealthy attraction to her for some reason (I mean a physical one :)). Would be great if she takes a lead on foreign affairs and gets a chance to play a toughie internationally.
At the very least she will *hopefully* be very active in the legislative realm...
 
This backward **** will certainly not be happy about the difference between men and women voting.


So I'm going to guess this is religiously motivated based off of his twitter?


Is this shit (and the other shit again based off of his twitter) legitimately in the bible or are they pulling this out of their arse?
 
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