SebastianBlue
President, International Julian Alvarez Fan Club
- Joined
- 25 Jul 2009
- Messages
- 52,761
I thought this was worthy of its own thread, as I think there is a wide array of opinions as to the relative quality of Kev’s performance in the league this season.
Interested to get other blues’ views in light of the statistics (which I know some don’t bother with or trust, to be fair).
Here are some stats for thought re: Kev this season.
Kev ranks 4th for total xAG (10.5; 0.3 off the three tied for first: Salah, Son, Fernandes) in the league, even though everyone else in the top 10 played 2-3x as many minutes. Phil is 10th with 8.4 xAG.
xAG is in some ways a better determinate of creative contribution than assists, as it factors in the quality of chances created (largely in his control) but not converted (largely out of his control). And Per 90 stats help normalise for fair comparison across players with differing minutes played totals.
Kev ranks 1st in xAG Per 90 (0.85), doubling 2nd placed Mohammad Salah’s haul (0.42).
To further support how insane these xAG stats are, though, he actually lead the league by some distance in Assists Per 90 (0.74), including players that got an assist or two over very few minutes. Pedro Neto and Jacob Murphy, of all players, are joint 2nd with 0.53 (quite the drop from Kev), with the Newcastle man having nearly the same exact minutes played.
For more context, of players that have more than 2,000 minutes in the ranking (around twice as many as Kev), Brennan Johnson is 5th (0.43), Trippier and Harvey Elliot are joint 7th (0.40), and Cole Palmer and James Maddison, who both had essentially twice the minutes, are joint 10th (0.38, or nearly half the Assists Per 90).
Based on his Per 90 stats, if Kev had played as many minutes as Ollie Watkins, the eventual winner of the PL Playmaker of the Season for 2023/2024 with 13 assists, the Ginger Prince would have absolutely left everyone else in his dust, doubling the Villa striker’s total and smashing the all-time single season assists record with 26. He could have even had a dip mid season and still nicked the record with 21.
I am fairly sure that if one were to go back in time and calculate the Assists Per 90 from all previous league seasons, his productivity this season would be in the top five. He’s lead the Assists Per 90 table 5 of the 9 seasons since he joined, and was second for 2 of the other 4.
If we look at Goals + Assists Per 90 he is 4th (1.03), behind Cole Palmer (1.14; that drops well below Kev if you exclude penalties for a fair comparison), Michael Olise (1.13), and his partner in attacking crime, the Striking Viking (1.13), who also apparently disappointed this season.
Only Salah (1.18) and Erling (1.17) have a higher xG+xAG Per 90, with Kev managing 1.03.
TL;DR
There is an argument to be made that this is actually Kev’s most productive season in the league, even though he didn’t play as many minutes compared to most other seasons, including last year’s historic campaign.
Interested to get other blues’ views in light of the statistics (which I know some don’t bother with or trust, to be fair).
Here are some stats for thought re: Kev this season.
Kev ranks 4th for total xAG (10.5; 0.3 off the three tied for first: Salah, Son, Fernandes) in the league, even though everyone else in the top 10 played 2-3x as many minutes. Phil is 10th with 8.4 xAG.
xAG is in some ways a better determinate of creative contribution than assists, as it factors in the quality of chances created (largely in his control) but not converted (largely out of his control). And Per 90 stats help normalise for fair comparison across players with differing minutes played totals.
Kev ranks 1st in xAG Per 90 (0.85), doubling 2nd placed Mohammad Salah’s haul (0.42).
To further support how insane these xAG stats are, though, he actually lead the league by some distance in Assists Per 90 (0.74), including players that got an assist or two over very few minutes. Pedro Neto and Jacob Murphy, of all players, are joint 2nd with 0.53 (quite the drop from Kev), with the Newcastle man having nearly the same exact minutes played.
For more context, of players that have more than 2,000 minutes in the ranking (around twice as many as Kev), Brennan Johnson is 5th (0.43), Trippier and Harvey Elliot are joint 7th (0.40), and Cole Palmer and James Maddison, who both had essentially twice the minutes, are joint 10th (0.38, or nearly half the Assists Per 90).
Based on his Per 90 stats, if Kev had played as many minutes as Ollie Watkins, the eventual winner of the PL Playmaker of the Season for 2023/2024 with 13 assists, the Ginger Prince would have absolutely left everyone else in his dust, doubling the Villa striker’s total and smashing the all-time single season assists record with 26. He could have even had a dip mid season and still nicked the record with 21.
I am fairly sure that if one were to go back in time and calculate the Assists Per 90 from all previous league seasons, his productivity this season would be in the top five. He’s lead the Assists Per 90 table 5 of the 9 seasons since he joined, and was second for 2 of the other 4.
If we look at Goals + Assists Per 90 he is 4th (1.03), behind Cole Palmer (1.14; that drops well below Kev if you exclude penalties for a fair comparison), Michael Olise (1.13), and his partner in attacking crime, the Striking Viking (1.13), who also apparently disappointed this season.
Only Salah (1.18) and Erling (1.17) have a higher xG+xAG Per 90, with Kev managing 1.03.
TL;DR
There is an argument to be made that this is actually Kev’s most productive season in the league, even though he didn’t play as many minutes compared to most other seasons, including last year’s historic campaign.
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