Don't know if everyone has seen this but there is a hopeful article on the independent today.
After reading this , it gives me faith that united will drop points. We can do this.
http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2012...haul-united-in-the-premier-league-title-race/
Strong finishers? History says Manchester United can be overhauled by City in the Premier League title race
Manchester United need just a win against QPR to retain the Premier League title – at least that’s the assessment of their title rivals’ manager.
Speaking after Manchester City’s 3-3 draw with Sunderland on Saturday, Roberto Mancini stated that “If we go eight points behind (United), then it is finished.”
United’s win against Blackburn on Monday means they are now five points ahead of their local rivals. A win again QPR at Old Trafford on Sunday will see them move eight points clear of City – and therefore, according to their manager, the Sky Blues’ 44 year wait for a league title will go on for at least another season.
It was a cold and certain declaration from Mancini considering there are seven games left to play this season, including a visit to the Etihad Stadium for Alex Ferguson’s team. Surely with 18 per cent of the season left to go there is enough time for the balance of power to shift yet again from one half of Manchester to the other?
United are notoriously strong finishers during a season, and they’re currently on a roll. Since losing 3-0 to Newcastle in their first match of 2012, they have won 10 of their 11 league games. The one blot was the 3-3 draw with Chelsea at the start of February.
But can they keep it going? It was revealed last week that Mancini has a penchant for picking Lottery numbers, but it would appear he hasn’t been counting them as well; We have and analysis of United’s previous run-ins would appear to quash the Italian’s prediction that they can’t be overhauled.
We studied the last six competitive games of United’s seasons since the creation of the Premier League 20 years ago – games once the title had been decided were discounted.
Over the previous 19 completed Premier League seasons, United have taken an average of 12.9 points from the available 18, showing that United tend to drop five points in their last six competitive games. In fact, in four of the last six seasons they’ve done exactly that, winning four, drawing one and losing one.
Should that happen this season, and if City won all their games, both teams would end the season on 92 points, and the league title would be decided on goal difference (which City are currently ahead on by virtue of a single goal).
United look relentless at the moment – while not necessarily dazzling, they are winning. But to think they will win all of their remaining games would go against history. In only one of the 19 completed Premier League seasons have United won their final six competitive games – which they did so in the 1999/2000 season, winning the title with four games to spare.
United would have to see a serious dip in results to match their worst run-in, which occurred in the 2004/2005 season. That year they won twice, drew twice and lost twice in the last six as Chelsea clinched their first title for 50 years. The only other time United won just two of their last six competitive games was in the 1996/97 season. Despite that, they went on to win the title that year as rivals Newcastle and Liverpool failed to capitalise.
One thing to emerge from this analysis is the clarity of one thing: When Manchester City play United on Monday 30 April, Mancini’s side must win. But history doesn’t bode well. City have been among United’s last six competitive games on five occasions and they’ve lost all of them.
Should United win at Old Trafford this Sunday lunchtime, the battle to be crowned champions will not be over. However, judging by United’s previous finishes to the season, it would be fair to suggest the title race will be “finished”, as Mancini puts it, if City fail to produce a perfect pursuit. They begin on Sunday afternoon against Arsenal.
Manchester United remaining fixtures: QPR (h), Wigan (a), Aston Villa (h), Everton (h), Man City (a), Swansea (h), Sunderland (a)
Manchester City remaining fixtures: Arsenal (a), West Brom (h), Norwich (a), Wolves (a), Manchester United (h), Newcastle (a), QPR (h)
Manchester United’s season run-ins (last six matches in which United needed points in title race)
Season / Champions / w = wins / d = draws / l = losses
1992–93 Manchester United – 5w (Crystal Palace, Chelsea, Coventry, Sheffield Wednesday, Norwich) 1d (Arsenal) 0l
1993–94 Manchester United – 4w (Ipswich, Leeds, Manchester City, Oldham) 0d 2l (Wimbledon, Blackburn)
1994–95 Blackburn Rovers – 4w (Southampton, Sheffield Wednesday, Coventry, Leicester) 2d (West Ham, Chelsea) 0l
1995–96 Manchester United – 5w (Middlebrough, Nottingham Forest, Leeds, Coventry, Manchester City) 0d 1l (Southampton)
1996–97 Manchester United – 2w (Liverpool, Blackburn) 3d (Newcastle, Middlesbrough, Leicester) 1l (Derby)
1997–98 Arsenal – 3w (Crystal Palace, Blackburn, Wimbledon) 2d (Newcastle, Liverpool) 1l (Arsenal)
1998–99 Manchester United – 3w (Tottenham, Middlesbrough, Aston Villa) 3d (Blackburn, Liverpool, Leeds) 0l
1999–2000 Manchester United – 6w (Southampton, Sunderland, Middlesbrough, West Ham, Bradford, Leicester) 0d 0l
2000–01 Manchester United – 4w (Coventry, Charlton, Leicester, Arsenal) 1d (Leeds) 1l (Liverpool)
2001–02 Arsenal – 4w (Ipswich, Chelsea, Leicester, Leeds) 0d 2l (Arsenal, Middlesbrough)
2002–03 Manchester United – 5w (Charlton, Tottenham, Blackburn, Newcastle, Liverpool) 1d (Arsenal) 0l
2003–04 Arsenal – 3w (Charlton, Leicester, Birmingham) 1d (Arsenal) 2l (Liverpool, Portsmouth)
2004–05 Chelsea – 2w (Newcastle, Fulham) 2d (Blackburn, Crystal Palace) 2l (Everton, Norwich)
2005–06 Chelsea – 4w (Tottenham, Arsenal, Bolton, West Ham) 1d (Sunderland) 1l (Chelsea)
2006–07 Manchester United – 4w (Manchester City, Everton, Sheffield United, Blackburn) 1d (Middlesbrough) 1l (Portsmouth)
2007–08 Manchester United – 3w (Wigan, West Ham, Arsenal) 2d (Blackburn, Middlesbrough) 1l (Chelsea)
2008–09 Manchester United – 5w (Wigan, Manchester City, Middlesbrough, Tottenham, Portsmouth) 1d (Arsenal) 0l
2009–10 Chelsea – 4w (Stoke, Sunderland, Tottenham, Manchester City) 1d (Blackburn) ll (Chelsea)
2010–11 Manchester United – 4w (Chelsea, Everton, West Ham, Fulham) 1d (Newcastle) 1l (Arsenal)
