Saddleworth2
Well-Known Member
I don't think any politician has attempted a long term plan that is credible. Markets would respond positively if the plan includes: clear fiscal rules (e.g., borrowing for investment, not day-to-day spending), independent verification from the OBR, a credible path to stabilising debt/GDP over time. This would avoid a repeat of the Truss/Kwarteng debacle which rattled markets by combining tax cuts with uncosted spending.I suppose the problem is circular, we need to goto the markets to borrow but at the same time we need to borrow without the imposition of crazy conditions upon that borrowing but this is impossible.
In a way I suppose it's the equivalent of Accrington Stanley wanting to improve their club by borrowing money to buy Messi and other great players. Nobody is going to lend that money so the club stays shite and that's where we are. The whole credibility rule has arguably meant that we've been imprisoned by our own financial system. The proof is really in the pudding given austerity and 'credibility' has turned everything to shit over the last 20 years.
A good example is the NHS, we know the NHS is broken and it needs money or some sort of change to fix it. If we borrowed £50bn then perhaps that could fix it. That amount however could never be funded through tax increases so how would the markets react to lending? They'd probably bring down Starmer so the government is categorically prevented by external factors from investing in the NHS. Win win for the financiers, terrible for us.
The one thing that Tony Blair did was spend and invest and the country grew. The problem today is the financial climate isn't the same and it's so perilous that the financiers and markets now basically run the country because they control all of the levers.
A great deal more emphasis needs to be put on the National Wealth Fund to drive investment in Infrastructure and Green energy.
The problem is the culture we live in is short term, knee jerk with a deep distrust in any politician. We will continue to decline until that downward spiral is broken.
