737-8 max plane goes down (2018) - new not Max crash Indonesia

[west didsblue]

Didn't realise that bluemoon had so many qualified aircraft crash investigators , should have know better as it also has so many pandemic and military strategy experts

Why shouldn't it? Out of 75,000 members there's bound to be experts in pretty much everything. As someone who has worked in the Aviation industry for over 30 years and been involved in a couple of crash investigations during that time, I feel like I'm reasonably qualified to have an opinion based on the evidence available and the aircraft type involved.

 

[super_city_si]

Jesus I just saw the video. The plane beelines straight for the ground a vertical decent. Cant begin to imagine the horror of being on that

 

[Scottyboi]

Horrible video makes me ill the thought of it. Funking hate flying rip to the poor souls onboard.

 

[Homar]

Hard to imagine a more terrifying way to die. Anyone know what the percentage of accidents to flights is for Boeing compared to Airbus? It feels like, although still relatively low, Boeing have a disproportionate number of accidents, but I couldn’t find figures from any reputable sources.

 

[west didsblue]

Hard to imagine a more terrifying way to die. Anyone know what the percentage of accidents to flights is for Boeing compared to Airbus? It feels like, although still relatively low, Boeing have a disproportionate number of accidents, but I couldn’t find figures from any reputable sources.

I posted this a few years ago before the 737-MAX was introduced.

Re: A320 Airbus Crashes In The Alps. BBC



For info, there have been 23 A320 losses out of 6452 aircraft delivered. The Boeing 737 figures are 158 out of 8385. The higher 737 figures are due to it being in service 20 years longer (since late 60s).

If you do a like for like comparison of the latest versions in recent years, the accident rate is broadly similar with slightly less A320 accidents. Rate is roughly one loss per 4 million flights.

 

[Summerbuzz]

Hard to imagine a more terrifying way to die. Anyone know what the percentage of accidents to flights is for Boeing compared to Airbus? It feels like, although still relatively low, Boeing have a disproportionate number of accidents, but I couldn’t find figures from any reputable sources.

Plane crash rates by model

Chart listing the rate of plane crashes involving passenger fatalities in fatal events per million flights for selected airliner models.

www.airsafe.com

Very low. Very safe aircraft. Doesn't mean nothing can go wrong. Such a state of affairs is all but impossible.

 

[manimanc]

I just seen the video and wished I hadn't.
The poor fuckers, it's beyond horrific.

 

[Homar]

I posted this a few years ago before the 737-MAX was introduced.

It would be interesting to see up-to-date numbers of accidents per flight or accidents per kilometre travelled for each manufacturer as a whole and for each model. My experience is that manufacturers in Europe generally demand higher tolerances from both hardware and software than in the US. I don’t know whether that is the case for aircraft manufacturers, but it certainly seems to be the case for cars and general industrial machinery. Even though the rates for both manufacturers are likely to be very low, there could still be a statistically significant difference.

 

[deano ou812]

Brutal,and just the thought that there is nothing you can do ..

 

[Indaparkside]

The reason it shocks so many is the rarity of plane crashes there would have been 1,000's of flights yesterday but it's not news the ones that land safely you've more chance of seeing the rags win the league this year than dying in an aircraft

 

[RadcliffeRick]

This thread needs input from @ChicagoBlue

 

[ChicagoBlue]

At the altitude from which the aircraft rapidly descended, it appears there may have been an almost catastrophic failure that caused it. At 7,800’ they briefly ascended before the final, fatal plunge.

What causes such things?

Stall, but it’s hard to see how they could have stalled at 29,000’. It’s a low altitude for an upset, unless it was caused by a flight control issue. If it was a flight control issue, I’d wonder how the aircraft could come out of such a steep, rapid descent, even momentarily.

As is always the case with such accidents, it’s the black (bright orange!) boxes that will tell the tale when there are no survivors. It’s always best to wait for more information.

FWIW, the 737-800 is a workhorse without ANY accident history, and I have about 5,000 hours flying that variant without incident.

 

[Scottyboi]

At the altitude from which the aircraft rapidly descended, it appears there may have been an almost catastrophic failure that caused it. At 7,800’ they briefly ascended before the final, fatal plunge.

What causes such things?

Stall, but it’s hard to see how they could have stalled at 29,000’. It’s a low altitude for an upset, unless it was caused by a flight control issue. If it was a flight control issue, I’d wonder how the aircraft could come out of such a steep, rapid descent, even momentarily.

As is always the case with such accidents, it’s the black (bright orange!) boxes that will tell the tale when there are no survivors. It’s always best to wait for more information.

FWIW, the 737-800 is a workhorse without ANY accident history, and I have about 5,000 hours flying that variant without incident.

Could a pilot be able to make it plunge like that?

 

[PannickAtTheDisco]

At the altitude from which the aircraft rapidly descended, it appears there may have been an almost catastrophic failure that caused it. At 7,800’ they briefly ascended before the final, fatal plunge.

What causes such things?

Stall, but it’s hard to see how they could have stalled at 29,000’. It’s a low altitude for an upset, unless it was caused by a flight control issue. If it was a flight control issue, I’d wonder how the aircraft could come out of such a steep, rapid descent, even momentarily.

As is always the case with such accidents, it’s the black (bright orange!) boxes that will tell the tale when there are no survivors. It’s always best to wait for more information.

FWIW, the 737-800 is a workhorse without ANY accident history, and I have about 5,000 hours flying that variant without incident.

Could it have been something similar to that Japan Airlines 747, but more catastrophic? If I recall that one had a lot more plunges and then altitude gains before it finally crashed.

Can't see how a pilot wouldn't lose conciousness before pushing a plane like that straight vertical like that?

 

[ChicagoBlue]

Could a pilot be able to make it plunge like that?

Of course, but usually the other pilot doesn’t want to die, too!

I doubt very much this is intentional.

 

[west didsblue]

Could it have been something similar to that Japan Airlines 747, but more catastrophic? If I recall that one had a lot more plunges and then altitude gains before it finally crashed.

Can't see how a pilot wouldn't lose conciousness before pushing a plane like that straight vertical like that?

The sort of thing that caused that JAL crash in 1985 could well have caused this one. Explosive decompression critically damaging flight controls caused by a shoddy repair and poor maintenance. We should find out fairly quickly assuming they find the flight recorders.

 

[ChicagoBlue]

Could it have been something similar to that Japan Airlines 747, but more catastrophic? If I recall that one had a lot more plunges and then altitude gains before it finally crashed.

Can't see how a pilot wouldn't lose conciousness before pushing a plane like that straight vertical like that?

IIRC, that was a high altitude stall. 29,000 is not high altitude in aviation terms. 39,000, at weight limits, moving into warmer air, can lead to stall conditions. Any turbulence can lead to an upset under those conditions, which is why most pilots avoid them and allow themselves a few thousand feet and 10-20 kt buffer.

I doubt they were unconscious, unless there was an explosive decompression and they were unable to get to their O2 masks within their ”time of useful consciousness“ (TUC). However, at FL290, you TUC is plenty long enough to grab your mask…a few minutes before you go a bit loopy!





Now, if you are suggesting G-loads, they’re not that bad going straight down. In fact, pilots and passengers may well have experienced NEGATIVE Gs on the way down.

The last accident I remember where there was a plane that fell out of the sky and went straight down was off the coast of California, when a jackscrew failed in flight and the tail became completely ineffective.

Honestly, I think we would all be better served by waiting a while, rather than hypothesizing from initial descent details and a snippet of video. Lots of people died and there will be a reason discovered. Let’s not blame the pilots, mechanics, or manufacturer just yet. They’ll be plenty of time for that after spending some time being thankful for our good fortune at not being the parent or child of those that perished.

 

[cleavers]

No sharks on the train routes I normally use ;-)

Other than the operators ?

 

[cleavers]

Stall, but it’s hard to see how they could have stalled at 29,000’. It’s a low altitude for an upset, unless it was caused by a flight control issue. If it was a flight control issue, I’d wonder how the aircraft could come out of such a steep, rapid descent, even momentarily.

Struck me as a bit strange, but I'm no expert, just a regular viewer of "Accident Investigation".

 

[west didsblue]

IIRC, that was a high altitude stall. 29,000 is not high altitude in aviation terms. 39,000, at weight limits, moving into warmer air, can lead to stall conditions. Any turbulence can lead to an upset under those conditions, which is why most pilots avoid them and allow themselves a few thousand feet and 10-20 kt buffer.

I doubt they were unconscious, unless there was an explosive decompression and they were unable to get to their O2 masks within their ”time of useful consciousness“ (TUC). However, at FL290, you TUC is plenty long enough to grab your mask…a few minutes before you go a bit loopy!



View attachment 39008

Now, if you are suggesting G-loads, they’re not that bad going straight down. In fact, pilots and passengers may well have experienced NEGATIVE Gs on the way down.

The last accident I remember where there was a plane that feel out of the sky and went straight down was off the coast of California, when a jackscrew failed in flight and the tail became completely ineffective.

Honestly, I think we would all be better served by waiting a while, rather than hypothesizing from initial descent details and a snippet of video. Lots of people died and there will be a reason discovered. Let’s not blame the pilots, mechanics, or manufacturer just yet. They’ll be plenty of time for that after spending some time being thankful for our good fortune at not being the parent or child of those that perished.

Was there a second JAL 747 that crashed?