a bit of advice please

[BrianW]

The Rags are undoubtedly a big brand. The question is how big a brand they will remain in League 1, or even in the bottom reaches of the Premier. The majority of their fans are plastic glory hunters. Let's be generous and assume there are 35,000 real fans. They're going to rattle a bit in Old Trafford aren't they?

Their ticket prices are about as high as can be sustained. People are unlikely to pay that to watch shite week in, week out. Even now, though second in the league, all it takes is one FA cup defeat and they are squealing like little girls. (With apologies to the many brave little girls who don't squeal.) A huge chunk of their fans could no more face real adversity than grow wings and fly to Dublin.

The debt is huge, and there are few guys out there who would be willing and able to pay it off. OK, I suspect such a guy does exist, possibly in China, but there won't be a queue round the block. Write the debts off and the Rags are probably a paying proposition but then so are many struggling businesses. In this case to maintain success any profits, and then some, will be needed to develop the team.

Now, look at City. It's hard to get our heads around, but the fact is that for our owners losing £200m or £300m is like me losing 50p. They have declared they are here for the long term and they want to build a range of businesses up around and connected to City. To make these businesses successful, they want a fair level of success, and are clearly impatient for it. City have barely started to explore the various money-making avenues United have been digging at for 20 years or more. Our fans have seen it all - I mean bad stuff like relegation and only being able to afford shit players - and even modest success will fill the ground, and maybe make it possible to ticket prices to be pushed up a bit, if necessary.

OK, if the Sheikh walks, it all goes tits up, but there would still be no debt, only an urgent need to cut costs nearer income. This would likely involve a fire sale of players, but assuming the new owners had a reasonable amount of cash, I don't see how it would destroy the club. City fans would carry on going, and I reckon the crowds would be at least 35,000.

I don't think I'd swap our current position for United's, not least because there's no reason to believe the Sheikh is about to dump us and every reason to believe he's sticking around to see through a long-term project. United haven't even recruited their 'Sheikh-equivalent' yet.

 

[Greenjob]

Global Brand they might be. However, a couple of years ago and whilst working in Belfast in a Military capacity. I was talking at length with one of my many yet reliable sources about a Police raid on warehouses in the Antrim area of Ulster. Essentially what was said involved thousands of brand name counterfeits that had been seized by the then RUC (now PSNI) such has Football shirts (Celtic, Rangers, Liverpool, Real, Barca and yernited) plus handbags, watches, DVDs/Cds, alcohol, fags etc etc. One of the Police Officers concerned had the idea of sending it all (less the DVDs/Cds, alcohol & fags) out to 3rd world countries rather than incinerate it all. So he wrote to all the compaines whose items had been copied for permission. Every brand except one gave permission to re-distribute the merch free abroad. That one company who refused was erm Utd!!! says it all really.

 

[modgeblue]

well my rag friend has replyed to the points i gave him that i took from some of you on ths thread here is his reply any comments most welcome

I really enjoy our little jousting sessions!
Read the story in the link below, it's amazing as it echoes everything I said in my e-mail to you and I promise I do not know the author!
I must congratulate you on your research and whilst your facts are accurate , your conclusions are way off the mark. For instance you state that someone would have to pay approx £900m to buy United and have all the debt to pay off as well before making a penny in profit, well this is not the case at all. United are valued at that figure because that is what the club is worth to a cash purchase ie using equity based not debt based investment. Put simply if you had £900m to invest, you could expect a minimum return of say 6% to 8% using the money markets ie buying stocks ,bonds and gilts (these are the going rates). That converts to approx. £54 to £72m per annum, United comfortably achieve this without debt payments, which if someone buys the club using their equity there would be no debt, simply they require a return on their equity(cash) that they are likely to receive if they invested it. Whoever buys United in the future will be such a purchaser and I did refer to this in my e-mail.They will not be saddled with any additional debt as the purchase price will go to the Glazers ,who will be liable to the discharge of the debt as a precondition of sale, The Banks all hold charges over United and will not agree to a sale before simultaneously receiving the owed debt.Did you really think someone would buy United for £900m AND pay off the Glazers debts ?!!

The Bond thing is interesting and is simply what the Bank of England do to raise money for the government ie guaranteeing a rate of return to investors buying the bonds at an agreed and fixed rate of interest for a set term of years.These Bonds are available to everyone , even you and I ! If it is successful, the Bonds will pay off the existing debts and the interest paid out on the bonds is less than half of the extortionate interest that the Glazers currently pay, which as you rightly point out all but wipes out the remarkable profits generated by the Worlds biggest Club. Naturally if this is successful then the Glazers have got out of jail and unfortunately will be able to keep hold of United because suddenly the club will be able to retain the larger proportion of profits generated in the future and be back roughly where it was pre Glazers. It is a last throw of the dice and plays on the fact that United are footballs biggest brand and these bonds will be sold globally and it could work, if it doesn't the banks will force a sale.I hope it does not work personally but I fear it may due to the global pull of the brand. As for future business plans and intentions, do you think that the swathes of land around Citys stadium are owned by City? They are not, just as the satadium ,it is publicly owned, albeit for sale. Alternatively , did you know that United own far more than 11 Acres in Trafford Park, prime yield returning land ? For instance the International Freight terminal park is all owned by United and income producing as well. The doomsday scenario I predict for your club will happen and deep down you know it and the biggest worry for City fans is that Uniteds sale may well be the catalyst, as your Sheikh may well have more than a passing interest in owning the worlds biggest club, with its own stadium, land holdings and giving him instant profitable returns for his investment, additionally the currently inflated transfer fees and salaries would be dramatically cut compared to City as players are quite happy to move to United and don't need the inducements City need to offer. Finally you mentioned Matchday revenue concerns, well take a look at our accounts more closely and they make up much less than half of our revenue, totally different to all other clubs, this is due to our global commercial brand. Liverpool and Arsenal are glabal brands and this will never change, Liverpool have not won the title for 20 years ,yet are the worlds 3rd biggest club by fan base, they will come back and so will Arsenal, sooner rather than later, Chelsea have proved you cant make a mid table club into a global brand by simply throwing money at it(see Article link, their words not mine). Enjoy the current fleeting moments of success that may come your way but beware the future because I have warned you what is going to happen. All the best for now.
<a class="postlink" href="http://msn.football365.com/story/0,17033,13320_5843604,00.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://msn.football365.com/story/0,1703 ... 04,00.html</a>

 

[samharris]

All this was said before todays news of the United Roadshow I take it..

Touring the world begging for investment.. YRCNMIU.

Begging and borrowing taken to extremes.

Take Rooney from that team and they're mid table fodder..

 

[smudgedj]

Well his first sentence isn't taking into account buying new players and paying their increased wages, four players need replacing on a like for like so that's an easy £150 million and with wages over 4 years so that's 2 years profit gone plus they will have to spend at £20 million a year on new players so there is no 8% return and therefore no advantage to buying united.

 

[Jimmy14]

he mentioned that city do not own the land surroundings COMS, well that fact is indeed very VERY wrong!! The land Surrounding Coms has actually been bought by ADUG, they did it so the council will be forced to sell the stadium! whats the point in having the stadium when u cant do anythin with the surrounding area! the stadium also is on a 999 year lease and the council cannot just kick us out!! its laughable!!!! so what if thety own some bus depot thingy!! its not worth nothing!!!

I regularly speak to a rag in work and he is in total agreement with me about this and is totally against everythin the rag has said!!!

living in a dreamland!!! as someone put tick tock.....