Alexandole Boris de Pfeffel Johnson

Ban-jani said:
The WA will probably pass.

I wouldn’t be surprised if he attached a confirmatory vote to it though as well.

He’ll do whatever he can to not force a GE yet and to allow the next 3 years to get into a position to beat Corbyn.
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I have my eye on this outcome as well. Boris has no magic with which to defeat the numbers so the first weeks and months of his tenure are highly predictable, what is not clear is how he gets through without there being a car crash and GE. Could he go as follows:

1, Tries to negotiate with EU - they refuse to budge on anything of significance.
2, Manouvers in HoC start to work against him and no deal looks incresingly unlikely.
3, Facing the prospect of entering a T May style cycle of failure he puts No Deal to the HoC subject to a 2nd Ref.
4, ERG go mental but Lab & Tory whips get it through.
5, Borris soft peddales the leave campaign and ensures Remain wins.
6. Borris gets 2 years of being PM in a post brexit world.
 
MillionMilesAway said:
Like pigs in clover. Anyone, anywhere, against Johnson should be a win!

He does have principles - anything that gets him more money, a bigger ego and women.

He got 114; presumably 50-70 of that are the ERG, who think they can run him. The rest (barring anyone voting for McVey, who will probably trot along to Johnson's trough) really do need to pick one. Stewart is just too new and junior really. I think it comes down to which of Gove and Hunt stands down in favour of the other.
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Think ERG is more like 30-50, but doesn't matter.
Stewart strategy is to demonstrate he's a better prospect of winning GE than Gove or Hunt.
MPs are self-serving wasters in the main and their main motivation is to hold onto their seat and land a nice government job with jollies and benefits. Winning GE will be their motivation for switching to Stewart. If they think he can win GE then enough anti-Johnson votes to win.
Johnson probably tops out at 130-140 leaving Stewart & Gove/Hunt sharing 170-180 possible. If running against, say Hunt, maybe needs 100 of the 180 to get to final two.
 
Gaudion M said:
I have my eye on this outcome as well. Boris has no magic with which to defeat the numbers so the first weeks and months of his tenure are highly predictable, what is not clear is how he gets through without there being a car crash and GE. Could he go as follows:

1, Tries to negotiate with EU - they refuse to budge on anything of significance.
2, Manouvers in HoC start to work against him and no deal looks incresingly unlikely.
3, Facing the prospect of entering a T May style cycle of failure he puts No Deal to the HoC subject to a 2nd Ref.
4, ERG go mental but Lab & Tory whips get it through.
5, Borris soft peddales the leave campaign and ensures Remain wins.
6. Borris gets 2 years of being PM in a post brexit world.
Click to expand...

It could be this or it could be him claiming slight changes to the Political Declaration are big ones and with his Brexit friends in the House realising this is their only chance.

Thus managing to get it over the line and claim he’s the hero of Brexit, when it’s blatantly not true to those of us not living in total delusion.

If that happens he’ll see off Corbyn easily.
 
Henkeman said:
One did say he wishes he had done. It's possible, or some kind of deal anyway. I daresay it'll change around the margins.
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Yep I think the deal will get through with the real threat of brixit party a no deal and even a general election or is this what was labour plan all along?
 
waspish said:
Will the real threat of leaving with no deal make mp’s vote for the “deal”?
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It didn't last time and while Boris has more friends in the ERG they are completley entrenched. For every one of them that breaks cover I see Boris lossing another on the other side. There are at least 30 or 40 moderate tory MPs who genuinely hate him and probablly the same number again who dislike him strongly. The unkown is how much their persoanl and party prosperity concern them and how that will affect their actions. As a guess I dont see the number that different to when May tried, Some ERG wont vote for it and some Moderate Tories wont. Bottom line not enough to get the WA over the line but enough to stop no deal.
 
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TheBlueDune said:
Think ERG is more like 30-50, but doesn't matter.
Stewart strategy is to demonstrate he's a better prospect of winning GE than Gove or Hunt.
MPs are self-serving wasters in the main and their main motivation is to hold onto their seat and land a nice government job with jollies and benefits. Winning GE will be their motivation for switching to Stewart. If they think he can win GE then enough anti-Johnson votes to win.
Johnson probably tops out at 130-140 leaving Stewart & Gove/Hunt sharing 170-180 possible. If running against, say Hunt, maybe needs 100 of the 180 to get to final two.
Click to expand...

You may be right on numbers, although it may be about that in effect, with all the certain Johnson voters.

I don't think at the moment Stewart would win an election outright. I assume he'll stay in though to see if he can get to the next stage.
 
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