Another new Brexit thread

[TheRemainsOfTheDave]

Its got legs.....

Can you imagine the results show ... And the confirmatory results show in case anyone has changed their mind.

 

[i kne albert davy]

Can you imagine the results show ... And the confirmatory results show in case anyone has changed their mind.

I can just imagine the results being read out and we have a clear winner tonight it's the one who came second.

 

[Chippy_boy]

It seems to me that the Remainers picking holes in this bill are either being disingenuous and their real intention is to try to stop Brexit. Or they are being naive and not thinking it through.

What is clear after 3.5 years is that there is no overwhelming majority for anything. Indeed up until now, there has been no majority at all for anything, other than the overwhelming endorsement that we must leave, i.e. when MPs passed the A50 legislation with a massive majority. Since then, we've had absolute deadlock and complete impasse.

What is abundantly clear is that since taking over, Johnson has worked relentlessly to try to break this deadlock. It seems to me he's employed 3 fundamental strategies, which IMO all make sense. And I am therefore surprised - unless stopping Brexit is their true intention - that MPs have not recognised this, and not supported it in greater number. His tactics have been these:

1. Johnson has sought to maximise his negotiating power with the EU by threaten no deal. However, this was only ever a ruse. He had no intention of us ever leaving without a deal. No deal was never really on the table.He's been pro EU for all his political career and only relatively recently switched to Leave. There's no evidence at all that he's a hard liner, and all his actions have been to try to get the best deal he can. As evidenced by what he's negotiated.

2. He's had to tread a very difficult balance. This is something both the hard liners and the Remainers seem to have missed. Given the 3 year deadlock, a majority can only be found if a delicate compromise can be found. Johnson has played this really well IMO and more or less got there. He's managed to get all but the hardest ERG supporters on board by painting a picture to them, of a harder Brexit. Maybe even allowed them to think there's a chance of a no deal Brexit at the end of the transition period (although there is no chance of that). And he's managed to get a softer than expected WA drafted, which placated enough Remainers and soft Brexit supporters. This balance is essential, since votes from both sides are needed to get a majority. It is futile to try to harden, or soften the draft WA, because a move in either direction, results in there being no majority and more deadlock. Add a customs union, and the ERG votes are lost. Move it further to the right and the Remain votes are lost. This delicate balance is the only way out of this.

3. He's tried to limit debate. This is a contentious tactic, but in my view a well-intentioned one. He's realised that the more the deal is scrutinised, the more chance both sides have to pick holes in it and demand a move to a harder or softer position, which then gets us into the no majority situation again. Bulldozing it through with as little scrutiny as possible, gets us the best chance of the necessary equilibrium being maintained.

IMO MPs would do well to reflect upon this and to think about what they really want. If they genuinely want to respect the referendum result then they should support Johnson and his draft WA. It's the middle ground - the only middle ground - which moves us forward.

If they do not - as is their right - then they should man up and say so. They should state openly that they do not respect the referendum result and their objective is to cancel it. IMO that would be totally the wrong position to adopt, but I could at least respect that.

But this nonsense of saying you respect the result, whilst doing everything you can to block it, cannot continue.

 

[blueinsa]

It seems to me that the Remainers picking holes in this bill are either being disingenuous and their real intention is to try to stop Brexit. Or they are being naive and not thinking it through.

What is clear after 3.5 years is that there is no overwhelming majority for anything. Indeed up until now, there has been no majority at all for anything, other than the overwhelming endorsement that we must leave, i.e. when MPs passed the A50 legislation with a massive majority. Since then, we've had absolute deadlock and complete impasse.

What is abundantly clear is that since taking over, Johnson has worked relentlessly to try to break this deadlock. It seems to me he's employed 3 fundamental strategies, which IMO all make sense. And I am therefore surprised - unless stopping Brexit is their true intention - that MPs have not recognised this, and not supported it in greater number. His tactics have been these:

1. Johnson has sought to maximise his negotiating power with the EU by threaten no deal. However, this was only ever a ruse. He had no intention of us ever leaving without a deal. No deal was never really on the table.He's been pro EU for all his political career and only relatively recently switched to Leave. There's no evidence at all that he's a hard liner, and all his actions have been to try to get the best deal he can. As evidenced by what he's negotiated.

2. He's had to tread a very difficult balance. This is something both the hard liners and the Remainers seem to have missed. Given the 3 year deadlock, a majority can only be found if a delicate compromise can be found. Johnson has played this really well IMO and more or less got there. He's managed to get all but the hardest ERG supporters on board by painting a picture to them, of a harder Brexit. Maybe even allowed them to think there's a chance of a no deal Brexit at the end of the transition period (although there is no chance of that). And he's managed to get a softer than expected WA drafted, which placated enough Remainers and soft Brexit supporters. This balance is essential, since votes from both sides are needed to get a majority. It is futile to try to harden, or soften the draft WA, because a move in either direction, results in there being no majority and more deadlock. Add a customs union, and the ERG votes are lost. Move it further to the right and the Remain votes are lost. This delicate balance is the only way out of this.

3. He's tried to limit debate. This is a contentious tactic, but in my view a well-intentioned one. He's realised that the more the deal is scrutinised, the more chance both sides have to pick holes in it and demand a move to a harder or softer position, which then gets us into the no majority situation again. Bulldozing it through with as little scrutiny as possible, gets us the best chance of the necessary equilibrium being maintained.

IMO MPs would do well to reflect upon this and to think about what they really want. If they genuinely want to respect the referendum result then they should support Johnson and his draft WA. It's the middle ground - the only middle ground - which moves us forward.

If they do not - as is their right - then they should man up and say so. They should state openly that they do not respect the referendum result and their objective is to cancel it. IMO that would be totally the wrong position to adopt, but I could at least respect that.

But this nonsense of saying you respect the result, whilst doing everything you can to block it, cannot continue.

Excellent post.

Nailed it with disingenuous imo.

 

[FlemishDuck]

You mean something like

“7B General implementation of EEA EFTA and Swiss agreements
(1) Subsection (2) applies to all such rights, powers, liabilities, obligations,
restrictions, remedies and procedures as—
(a) would from time to time be created or arise, or (in the case of
remedies or procedures) be provided for, by or under the EEA
European Union (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill
Part 2 — Remaining implementation of withdrawal agreement etc: general EFTA separation agreement or the Swiss citizens’ rights
agreement, and
(b) would, in accordance with Article 4(1) of the withdrawal
agreement, be required to be given legal effect or used in the
United Kingdom without further enactment,
if that Article were to apply in relation to the EEA EFTA separation
agreement and the Swiss citizens’ rights agreement, those agreements
were part of EU law and the relevant EEA states and Switzerland were
member States.
(2) The rights, powers, liabilities, obligations, restrictions, remedies and
procedures concerned are to be—
(a) recognised and available in domestic law, and
(b) enforced, allowed and followed accordingly.
(3) Every enactment (other than section 7A but otherwise including an
enactment contained in this Act) is to be read and has effect subject to
subsection (2).
(4) See also (among other things)—
(a) Part 3 of the European Union (Withdrawal Agreement) Act
2019 (further provision about citizens’ rights),
(b) section 7C of this Act (interpretation of law relating to the EEA
EFTA separation agreement and the Swiss citizens’ rights
agreement etc.),
(c) section 8B of this Act (power in connection with certain other
separation issues), and
(d) Part 1B of Schedule 2 to this Act (powers involving devolved
authorities in connection with certain other separation issues).
(5) In this section “the relevant EEA states” means Norway, Iceland and
Liechtenstein.
(6) In this Act “EEA EFTA separation agreement” and “Swiss citizens’
rights agreement” have the same meanings as in the European Union
(Withdrawal Agreement) Act 2019 (see section 37(1) of that Act).”

classic, immagine 100 pages of that dribble ...

 

[bluethrunthru]

As a Remainer who wanted the first stage ( A50 and WA ) done immediately after the referendum to avoid the predictable last 3 years I can only say that the rupture in the country is lamentable - the release of latent racism is welcomed in that we can stop patting ourselves on the back that we have "solved" that one. We hadn't. The disingenuous politics is awful and we have ended up with Johnson who is a despicable liar and shaming the office he occupies I am stunned but not surprised. Having a family including Irish ( North and South ) Maltese and German decent I am urging my kids to look into another passport because the future here is shit.

 

[BobKowalski]

It seems to me that the Remainers picking holes in this bill are either being disingenuous and their real intention is to try to stop Brexit. Or they are being naive and not thinking it through.

What is clear after 3.5 years is that there is no overwhelming majority for anything. Indeed up until now, there has been no majority at all for anything, other than the overwhelming endorsement that we must leave, i.e. when MPs passed the A50 legislation with a massive majority. Since then, we've had absolute deadlock and complete impasse.

What is abundantly clear is that since taking over, Johnson has worked relentlessly to try to break this deadlock. It seems to me he's employed 3 fundamental strategies, which IMO all make sense. And I am therefore surprised - unless stopping Brexit is their true intention - that MPs have not recognised this, and not supported it in greater number. His tactics have been these:

1. Johnson has sought to maximise his negotiating power with the EU by threaten no deal. However, this was only ever a ruse. He had no intention of us ever leaving without a deal. No deal was never really on the table.He's been pro EU for all his political career and only relatively recently switched to Leave. There's no evidence at all that he's a hard liner, and all his actions have been to try to get the best deal he can. As evidenced by what he's negotiated.

2. He's had to tread a very difficult balance. This is something both the hard liners and the Remainers seem to have missed. Given the 3 year deadlock, a majority can only be found if a delicate compromise can be found. Johnson has played this really well IMO and more or less got there. He's managed to get all but the hardest ERG supporters on board by painting a picture to them, of a harder Brexit. Maybe even allowed them to think there's a chance of a no deal Brexit at the end of the transition period (although there is no chance of that). And he's managed to get a softer than expected WA drafted, which placated enough Remainers and soft Brexit supporters. This balance is essential, since votes from both sides are needed to get a majority. It is futile to try to harden, or soften the draft WA, because a move in either direction, results in there being no majority and more deadlock. Add a customs union, and the ERG votes are lost. Move it further to the right and the Remain votes are lost. This delicate balance is the only way out of this.

3. He's tried to limit debate. This is a contentious tactic, but in my view a well-intentioned one. He's realised that the more the deal is scrutinised, the more chance both sides have to pick holes in it and demand a move to a harder or softer position, which then gets us into the no majority situation again. Bulldozing it through with as little scrutiny as possible, gets us the best chance of the necessary equilibrium being maintained.

IMO MPs would do well to reflect upon this and to think about what they really want. If they genuinely want to respect the referendum result then they should support Johnson and his draft WA. It's the middle ground - the only middle ground - which moves us forward.

If they do not - as is their right - then they should man up and say so. They should state openly that they do not respect the referendum result and their objective is to cancel it. IMO that would be totally the wrong position to adopt, but I could at least respect that.

But this nonsense of saying you respect the result, whilst doing everything you can to block it, cannot continue.

Can’t see many Labour MPs backing the WAB. The worker protections are a joke and the clumsy attempt to rule out all future Govts from ever negotiating anything other than a bare bones FTA with the EU is a nonsense. Aside from the principle of one Parliament not been able to bind another what the hell is the point in trying to limit future trade options or opportunities?

As for limiting scrutiny and debate. Did we learn nothing from the Iraq war debacle where not questioning the executive and nodding everything through turned out to be a colossal disaster? Not to mentioning nodding through A50 with no sodding clue or plan. I mean that’s turned out well hasn’t it?

Bundling this through in two days is going to lead to a total shitshow further down the line. It always does. I don’t have much issue with passing the bill but at least do it properly and not like some arsehole banana republic.

 

[meltonblue]

It seems to me that the Remainers picking holes in this bill are either being disingenuous and their real intention is to try to stop Brexit. Or they are being naive and not thinking it through.

What is clear after 3.5 years is that there is no overwhelming majority for anything. Indeed up until now, there has been no majority at all for anything, other than the overwhelming endorsement that we must leave, i.e. when MPs passed the A50 legislation with a massive majority. Since then, we've had absolute deadlock and complete impasse.

What is abundantly clear is that since taking over, Johnson has worked relentlessly to try to break this deadlock. It seems to me he's employed 3 fundamental strategies, which IMO all make sense. And I am therefore surprised - unless stopping Brexit is their true intention - that MPs have not recognised this, and not supported it in greater number. His tactics have been these:

1. Johnson has sought to maximise his negotiating power with the EU by threaten no deal. However, this was only ever a ruse. He had no intention of us ever leaving without a deal. No deal was never really on the table.He's been pro EU for all his political career and only relatively recently switched to Leave. There's no evidence at all that he's a hard liner, and all his actions have been to try to get the best deal he can. As evidenced by what he's negotiated.

2. He's had to tread a very difficult balance. This is something both the hard liners and the Remainers seem to have missed. Given the 3 year deadlock, a majority can only be found if a delicate compromise can be found. Johnson has played this really well IMO and more or less got there. He's managed to get all but the hardest ERG supporters on board by painting a picture to them, of a harder Brexit. Maybe even allowed them to think there's a chance of a no deal Brexit at the end of the transition period (although there is no chance of that). And he's managed to get a softer than expected WA drafted, which placated enough Remainers and soft Brexit supporters. This balance is essential, since votes from both sides are needed to get a majority. It is futile to try to harden, or soften the draft WA, because a move in either direction, results in there being no majority and more deadlock. Add a customs union, and the ERG votes are lost. Move it further to the right and the Remain votes are lost. This delicate balance is the only way out of this.

3. He's tried to limit debate. This is a contentious tactic, but in my view a well-intentioned one. He's realised that the more the deal is scrutinised, the more chance both sides have to pick holes in it and demand a move to a harder or softer position, which then gets us into the no majority situation again. Bulldozing it through with as little scrutiny as possible, gets us the best chance of the necessary equilibrium being maintained.

IMO MPs would do well to reflect upon this and to think about what they really want. If they genuinely want to respect the referendum result then they should support Johnson and his draft WA. It's the middle ground - the only middle ground - which moves us forward.

If they do not - as is their right - then they should man up and say so. They should state openly that they do not respect the referendum result and their objective is to cancel it. IMO that would be totally the wrong position to adopt, but I could at least respect that.

But this nonsense of saying you respect the result, whilst doing everything you can to block it, cannot continue.

I agree with a lot of the sentiment of this but only if you also add the caveat of “within the prism of the Conservative Party” to all of it (and substitute Johnson for Cummings ;)). I can see why conservative voters would view it that way though, absolutely.

I do think that caveat also needs to apply to your first and last paragraph as a consequence though. He chose to appease the ERG, you can’t expect those outside of his party that thought Mays deal was too strong to subsequently back an even stronger deal when no concessions have been made in their direction at all, in fact the opposite. He’s made his choices as it gives him the best chance of retaining power for the conservatives and also keeping the party together. That’s fine and as conservative leader, it’s absolutely the right course of action. That really doesn’t apply to the wider context though.

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

This is going to get worse.
A lot worse I fear.
This deal certainly won’t make things better for NI or the UK.

Nobody trusts the motives of your government. Not NI nor your own parliament. Not Scotland.
Your whole system is being destroyed.

It’s party politics all around with two main parties that are both fighting battles within and without and pretending it’s all about the referendum result and the people.

And the referendum result was nothing to do with party politics, it was idealogical. English Nationalist ideology.

That itself is at odds with The notion of the Union, which is at odds with a solution to the NI border issues while protecting the union.

This deal is a Tory solution no better than 1922. You got this all arse about face and you can’t be told different.

I’m out of here.

 

[aguerrrroooooooooooo]

This deal certainly won’t make things better for NI or the UK.

There isn't a deal in the world that won't leave us worse off, we've currently got the best deal we could wish to have but it's been thrown away

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

I can just imagine the results being read out and we have a clear winner tonight it's the one who came second.

Hopefully not ;-)

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

It seems to me that the Remainers picking holes in this bill are either being disingenuous and their real intention is to try to stop Brexit. Or they are being naive and not thinking it through.

What is clear after 3.5 years is that there is no overwhelming majority for anything. Indeed up until now, there has been no majority at all for anything, other than the overwhelming endorsement that we must leave, i.e. when MPs passed the A50 legislation with a massive majority. Since then, we've had absolute deadlock and complete impasse.

What is abundantly clear is that since taking over, Johnson has worked relentlessly to try to break this deadlock. It seems to me he's employed 3 fundamental strategies, which IMO all make sense. And I am therefore surprised - unless stopping Brexit is their true intention - that MPs have not recognised this, and not supported it in greater number. His tactics have been these:

1. Johnson has sought to maximise his negotiating power with the EU by threaten no deal. However, this was only ever a ruse. He had no intention of us ever leaving without a deal. No deal was never really on the table.He's been pro EU for all his political career and only relatively recently switched to Leave. There's no evidence at all that he's a hard liner, and all his actions have been to try to get the best deal he can. As evidenced by what he's negotiated.

2. He's had to tread a very difficult balance. This is something both the hard liners and the Remainers seem to have missed. Given the 3 year deadlock, a majority can only be found if a delicate compromise can be found. Johnson has played this really well IMO and more or less got there. He's managed to get all but the hardest ERG supporters on board by painting a picture to them, of a harder Brexit. Maybe even allowed them to think there's a chance of a no deal Brexit at the end of the transition period (although there is no chance of that). And he's managed to get a softer than expected WA drafted, which placated enough Remainers and soft Brexit supporters. This balance is essential, since votes from both sides are needed to get a majority. It is futile to try to harden, or soften the draft WA, because a move in either direction, results in there being no majority and more deadlock. Add a customs union, and the ERG votes are lost. Move it further to the right and the Remain votes are lost. This delicate balance is the only way out of this.

3. He's tried to limit debate. This is a contentious tactic, but in my view a well-intentioned one. He's realised that the more the deal is scrutinised, the more chance both sides have to pick holes in it and demand a move to a harder or softer position, which then gets us into the no majority situation again. Bulldozing it through with as little scrutiny as possible, gets us the best chance of the necessary equilibrium being maintained.

IMO MPs would do well to reflect upon this and to think about what they really want. If they genuinely want to respect the referendum result then they should support Johnson and his draft WA. It's the middle ground - the only middle ground - which moves us forward.

If they do not - as is their right - then they should man up and say so. They should state openly that they do not respect the referendum result and their objective is to cancel it. IMO that would be totally the wrong position to adopt, but I could at least respect that.

But this nonsense of saying you respect the result, whilst doing everything you can to block it, cannot continue.

Yeah, I pretty much agree with this. We need to go. It’s the only chance the country’s got to heal within a generation imo. No point prolonging the agony now we’ve got a highly imperfect but workable deal, that broadly reflects the national consensus. Don’t trust Johnson either, but we need to get this terrible episode over and try to move on - and people need to play with a straight bat, too. Try and be fair to the other side when deciding what’s best for the country. We used to be quite good at that.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

This is going to get worse.
A lot worse I fear.
This deal certainly won’t make things better for NI or the UK.

Nobody trusts the motives of your government. Not NI nor your own parliament. Not Scotland.
Your whole system is being destroyed.

It’s party politics all around with two main parties that are both fighting battles within and without and pretending it’s all about the referendum result and the people.

And the referendum result was nothing to do with party politics, it was idealogical. English Nationalist ideology.

That itself is at odds with The notion of the Union, which is at odds with a solution to the NI border issues while protecting the union.

This deal is a Tory solution no better than 1922. You got this all arse about face and you can’t be told different.

I’m out of here.

You’re right, it’s pretty wank.

 

[Rascal]

I can't stand Corbyn but I disagree on how far away Labour are.

The next leadership contest will be nothing like the Momentum/Union engineered coronation of Corbyn. Momentum is a hugely pro remain group and they have the numbers in a Leadership contest - the various Unions are spilt on the brexit issue. It wont be a clear cut lefty candidate v's a blairite next time. The Brexit issue will be far more prominent and they will want someone who has a chance, if someone like Starmer was elected leader then Labour would be a completely different proposition overnight- I can see that happening even if Momentum back someone else.

Momentum are not hugely pro-remain, nor do they have the numbers to vote in a new Labour leader. They are 40,000 of 560,000 members and not all momentum members are Labour Party members. The next leader will be from the left of the party, Corbyn has done the ground work to make that possible.

One day someone will tell Bill Cash to shut the fuck up about the 1972 act.

I respect Cash, he has been consistent.

Who gives a fuck apparently it’s the biggest thing since the Second World War apparently and this little jumped up twat wants to not allow a vote on the Eu deal a technicality

bullshit

Parliamentary procedure works on technicality, Bercow is following his judgement as interpreted through Erskine and May

So - do you think that Corbyn or Starmer will be the Labour leader at the next GE?

Yes, he is secure and will stand down after the election either as tradition indicates because he has lost or will hand over the reigns two years in to another MP

3 days to discuss the bill granted by Moggie.

Taking the piss out of Parliament. Maastricht took months for a consensus.

Mogg looked seriously out of his depth last night. He is not cabinet material, he should stick to loafing on the back benches or preferably give up being an MP and take up free fall sky diving without a parachute

You should have invested in gold like Steve ‘talk-up no deal’ Baker and the rest of the law making dealers. Week before referendum £851 per ounce. Current price £1221 per ounce gives over a 40% return. Even if you’d invested on the Monday after the referendum you’d have seen a 20% return, so not everyone’s getting shafted. Funny that...

The price of Gold is on the up because a recession is on the horizon. I posted about this a couple of weeks ago. All the major economic indicators suggest it. In times of recession Gold is a safe bet.

Todays socialists have done very well out of the capitalist system, they may have ghostly thoughts about giving all their wealth up but they wont. If all politicians aren't brushed with the same bucket of tar and chicken feathers you're doing it wrong. I'm not a fan of if you are not with us you're against us type of scenario because it's plain stupid.

There is no reason why a Socialist should be poor. Ideology is not based on wealth it is based on thinking. In the future under Socialism we could all be better off, although some at the very top might have to sell their Cayman Islands based superyachts.

I definitely do not want someone like Starmer

4. Labour candidates are put forwards and Starmer will be one of those as will the current deputy - but there will have been 'developments behind the scenes to ensure that there is a (very probable female) candidate that would be seen as the 'heir' to Corbyn by momentum.

5. Whilst the PLP might prefer Starmer as would millions of long-standing voters - the LP membership will ensure that it is the 'heir' that becomes leader.

For me - this was obvious from the machinations at conference to place the role of Deputy Leader under review - with the idea of a shared role - ideally a woman.

I definitely do not want Starmer, I doubt the membership do either, I suspect it could Long-Bailey.

The membership decide not the PLP thankfully.

Maybe Gove is back into promising that we'd still be in a free trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border... First he was, then he wasn't, then he was again, then he wasn't, so we're due for a period of "then he was".

That little pipsqueak is one of the most dishonest MPs in the HoC .

Newsnight highlighting that Barclay seemed not to know that NI businesses will need new export documentation to sell to rest of UK.

Got rid of backstop. Welcome to the frontstop.

Barclay was embarrassing, he clearly did not understand his brief.



And at that point, I think will bid you all farewell, I am off to Barcelona later this morning and if I don't get caught up in the riots I hope to retrace the steps George Orwell took in his Homage to Catalonia.

Enjoy your Brexit related chit chat and remember this. Johnson is a ****.

Adiós por ahora y nos vemos la semana que viene

 

[andyhinch]

Momentum are not hugely pro-remain, nor do they have the numbers to vote in a new Labour leader. They are 40,000 of 560,000 members and not all momentum members are Labour Party members. The next leader will be from the left of the party, Corbyn has done the ground work to make that possible.



I respect Cash, he has been consistent.



Parliamentary procedure works on technicality, Bercow is following his judgement as interpreted through Erskine and May



Yes, he is secure and will stand down after the election either as tradition indicates because he has lost or will hand over the reigns two years in to another MP



Mogg looked seriously out of his depth last night. He is not cabinet material, he should stick to loafing on the back benches or preferably give up being an MP and take up free fall sky diving without a parachute



The price of Gold is on the up because a recession is on the horizon. I posted about this a couple of weeks ago. All the major economic indicators suggest it. In times of recession Gold is a safe bet.



There is no reason why a Socialist should be poor. Ideology is not based on wealth it is based on thinking. In the future under Socialism we could all be better off, although some at the very top might have to sell their Cayman Islands based superyachts.



I definitely do not want Starmer, I doubt the membership do either, I suspect it could Long-Bailey.

The membership decide not the PLP thankfully.





That little pipsqueak is one of the most dishonest MPs in the HoC .



Barclay was embarrassing, he clearly did not understand his brief.



And at that point, I think will bid you all farewell, I am off to Barcelona later this morning and if I don't get caught up in the riots I hope to retrace the steps George Orwell took in his Homage to Catalonia.

Enjoy your Brexit related chit chat and remember this. Johnson is a ****.

Adiós por ahora y nos vemos la semana que viene

Enjoy your hols mate.

 

[mcfc1632]

It seems to me that the Remainers picking holes in this bill are either being disingenuous and their real intention is to try to stop Brexit. Or they are being naive and not thinking it through.

What is clear after 3.5 years is that there is no overwhelming majority for anything. Indeed up until now, there has been no majority at all for anything, other than the overwhelming endorsement that we must leave, i.e. when MPs passed the A50 legislation with a massive majority. Since then, we've had absolute deadlock and complete impasse.

What is abundantly clear is that since taking over, Johnson has worked relentlessly to try to break this deadlock. It seems to me he's employed 3 fundamental strategies, which IMO all make sense. And I am therefore surprised - unless stopping Brexit is their true intention - that MPs have not recognised this, and not supported it in greater number. His tactics have been these:

1. Johnson has sought to maximise his negotiating power with the EU by threaten no deal. However, this was only ever a ruse. He had no intention of us ever leaving without a deal. No deal was never really on the table.He's been pro EU for all his political career and only relatively recently switched to Leave. There's no evidence at all that he's a hard liner, and all his actions have been to try to get the best deal he can. As evidenced by what he's negotiated.

2. He's had to tread a very difficult balance. This is something both the hard liners and the Remainers seem to have missed. Given the 3 year deadlock, a majority can only be found if a delicate compromise can be found. Johnson has played this really well IMO and more or less got there. He's managed to get all but the hardest ERG supporters on board by painting a picture to them, of a harder Brexit. Maybe even allowed them to think there's a chance of a no deal Brexit at the end of the transition period (although there is no chance of that). And he's managed to get a softer than expected WA drafted, which placated enough Remainers and soft Brexit supporters. This balance is essential, since votes from both sides are needed to get a majority. It is futile to try to harden, or soften the draft WA, because a move in either direction, results in there being no majority and more deadlock. Add a customs union, and the ERG votes are lost. Move it further to the right and the Remain votes are lost. This delicate balance is the only way out of this.

3. He's tried to limit debate. This is a contentious tactic, but in my view a well-intentioned one. He's realised that the more the deal is scrutinised, the more chance both sides have to pick holes in it and demand a move to a harder or softer position, which then gets us into the no majority situation again. Bulldozing it through with as little scrutiny as possible, gets us the best chance of the necessary equilibrium being maintained.

IMO MPs would do well to reflect upon this and to think about what they really want. If they genuinely want to respect the referendum result then they should support Johnson and his draft WA. It's the middle ground - the only middle ground - which moves us forward.

If they do not - as is their right - then they should man up and say so. They should state openly that they do not respect the referendum result and their objective is to cancel it. IMO that would be totally the wrong position to adopt, but I could at least respect that.

But this nonsense of saying you respect the result, whilst doing everything you can to block it, cannot continue.

Good post - he inherited a pretty shit position and someone - Cummings? - with some real tactical nous and skills at managing negotiations is in a key role behind the scenes - we do need to get this done - but at least true positions are being flushed out.

I agree when you say:

"...….If they do not - as is their right - then they should man up and say so. They should state openly that they do not respect the referendum result and their objective is to cancel it. IMO that would be totally the wrong position to adopt, but I could at least respect that."

The reality that a large number of Remainers do not respect the referendum result and have been simply lying throughout - they just want to outright stop Brexit - but feel good about themselves and not be too obvious - they prefer to operate in the shadows. They are now in a state of angst because Johnson has achieved a level of progress and momentum that was totally unexpected from someone they see as a buffoon.

They must be proper perplexed/concerned and will become more desperate and have to come out into the open more

 

[Chippy_boy]

The membership decide not the PLP thankfully.

I don't wish to trivialise such a long and considered post, but there's your problem right there.

A huge disconnect exists between the political leanings of the PLP and the broader membership. And crucially, between the membership and the general population. The party has become a magnet for those with hard left views. Views very unfortunately which are not typical of most voters. A small group of hard left thinkers - such as yourself - feeling repressed after nigh on 50 years of either right wing or centre ground politics, have jumped on Corbyn's 1970's bandwagon like ducks to water. Opening up membership for twopence a year has had grave unintended consequences and this fringe element has hijacked the party. You may call it "restored traditional Labour values", but voters don't.

So now the result is you have a party which is unelectable. Avd worse still, unable to change course because the members do not recognise they have a problem. The PLP does, but they can do fuck all about it.

Unfortunately there is no room for me to gloat. The Tories are similarly screwed but for different reasons. Since the average age of Tory party members is about 106 and since such members are generally of the "out, out, out" school of nusnced Brexit debate, then necessarily, any Tory wishing to be leader, has to pander to that unrepresentative audience or else not be elected.

What a mess.

 

[Ifwecouldjust.......]

[QUOTE="Rascal, post: 12153337, member: 639]
The membership decide not the PLP thankfully.

I don't wish to trivialise such a long and considered post, but there's your problem right there.

A huge disconnect exists between the political leanings of the PLP and the broader membership. And crucially, between the membership and the general population. The party has become a magnet for those with hard left views. Views very unfortunately which are not typical of most voters. A small group of hard left thinkers - such as yourself - feeling repressed after nigh on 50 years of either right wing or centre ground politics, have jumped on Corbyn's 1970's bandwagon like ducks to water. Opening up membership for twopence a year has had grave unintended consequences and this fringe element has hijacked the party. You may call it "restored traditional Labour values", but voters don't.

So now the result is you have a party which is unelectable. Avd worse still, unable to change course because the members do not recognise they have a problem. The PLP does, but they can do fuck all about it.

Unfortunately there is no room for me to gloat. The Tories are similarly screwed but for different reasons. Since the average age of Tory party members is about 106 and since such members are generally of the "out, out, out" school of nusnced Brexit debate, then necessarily, any Tory wishing to be leader, has to pander to that unrepresentative audience or else not be elected.

What a mess.[/QUOTE]


Another one who votes against their own and everyone else's interest.

 

[mcfc1632]

As a Remainer who wanted the first stage ( A50 and WA ) done immediately after the referendum to avoid the predictable last 3 years I can only say that the rupture in the country is lamentable - the release of latent racism is welcomed in that we can stop patting ourselves on the back that we have "solved" that one. We hadn't. The disingenuous politics is awful and we have ended up with Johnson who is a despicable liar and shaming the office he occupies I am stunned but not surprised. Having a family including Irish ( North and South ) Maltese and German decent I am urging my kids to look into another passport because the future here is shit.

Sounds like your level of disgust with the country exceeds beyond Brexit

Good luck in finding this utopia for your kids

 

[Chippy_boy]

Another one who votes against their own and everyone else's interest.

I've no idea what you mean by that.