Another new Brexit thread

[smudgedj]

Come on now - Brexit has far more global impact than a petty thing like a trade war between the US and China

Fair one. It’s not as if the ftse 100 companies earn the majority of their profits outside of the UK as well. Some even pay out dividends in euros...

 

[Vic]

It can be made out to be seen as a misleading statement - it is nothing like as 'meaningless' as you have stated though is it

So let's try:

"We send the EU £181m each Week

Let's fund our NHS instead"

So that will work for you - surely?

Still a large amount of money - and certainly not 'meaningless'

There waa nothing stopping them funding the NHS all along.

 

[smudgedj]

Are you on the wind up mate?
"We send the EU a gross amount of £350m each Week

Let's fund out NHS instead"

Instead of what? Sending them £350m gross? You arent making sense and as you well know the UK doesn't 'send' a gross amount of £350 to the EU so its still factually incorrect. You cant just admit it was a misleading lie can you?

"Let's spend it on the NHS" is a proposition, not a promise.

An example of a promise would be "there will be an emergency budget on the Monday following the referendum",

 

[Vic]

"Let's spend it on the NHS" is a proposition, not a promise.

An example of a promise would be "there will be an emergency budget on the Monday following the referendum",

Either

Maybe if there had been an emergency budget the pound wouldn't have crashed and we'd not have gone from top to bottom of GDP in Europe

Or

Maybe there was a bit of a surreptitious emergency budget or it would have been even worse

 

[Vic]

It was not that long ago that Lib Dems had circa 55 seats. I would expect they will go a good way beyond this, between 60 and 100 as a reasonable estimate. The bulk of that will be taken of the tories. The bxp will do some damage in labour heartlands but at the same time they are an awful outfit and I could quite easily see them gaining nothing. You can not underestimate how much people in labour/leave heartland just default with there vote to labour. It is the big inner city labour seats that labour will los eand they will not go to the bxp - they will go to lib dem or tory if the vote split works against them.

I think the North East Labour MPs have the only right stance. We know many here voted Leave but if that was to punish Cameron for austerity then don't give the evil Boris the chance to do worse and don't forget the LibDems made austerity possible. And look how much more everything is costing because of Brexit. Even Jeremy who wasn't that sold on Brexit now realises what a disaster it would be.

That should cover all bases.

 

[cibaman]

Even Jeremy who wasn't that sold on Brexit now realises what a disaster it would be.

.

He just doesn’t know what to do about it

 

[BlueHammer85]

He just doesn’t know what to do about it

He like May has tried to appease everybody.
Unfortunately it’s a black and white issue.
Either leave with no deal (as any deal people lose their shit) or revoke and remain.
They are the only options.

 

[mcfc1632]

Ok- well then a leave party can campaign on a manifesto for a general election detailing exactly the terms they will leave. They can do this in the future.

The referendum was always going to be the wrong way to do it. A party, with a detailed manifesto is much better.

Yeah - I cannot find much wrong in that

Of course that's no different to saying a party can campaign to rejoin and set out the benefits of joining in their detailed manifesto which would be better

If we ever do leave - surely there will be plenty of evidence to give if the predictions or Remainers are correct?

 

[mcfc1632]

In which case the Norway model would be an option ( Norway not being a member of the EU).
N'est ce pas?

Absolutely

So indeed would May's deal

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

I think the North East Labour MPs have the only right stance. We know many here voted Leave but if that was to punish Cameron for austerity then don't give the evil Boris the chance to do worse and don't forget the LibDems made austerity possible. And look how much more everything is costing because of Brexit. Even Jeremy who wasn't that sold on Brexit now realises what a disaster it would be.

That should cover all bases.

I agree that works in the NE, doesn't wash in london boroughs though and places where brexit has already hit such as Swindon. Lib Dems / remain alliance will take the hard core remain seats.

 

[Ban-jani]

Yeah - I cannot find much wrong in that

Of course that's no different to saying a party can campaign to rejoin and set out the benefits of joining in their detailed manifesto which would be better

If we ever do leave - surely there will be plenty of evidence to give if the predictions or Remainers are correct?

If we do leave and then apply to rejoin. The terms will be worse than what we have now. Adoption of the Euro, full integration etc.

My whole position now is we should minimise making our position worse.

 

[cibaman]

He like May has tried to appease everybody.
Unfortunately it’s a black and white issue.
Either leave with no deal (as any deal people lose their shit) or revoke and remain.
They are the only options.

I did read somewhere that Milne has convinced Corbyn to revert back to “constructive ambiguity” if there’s an election. Apparently they believe that they can switch the focus of the election away from brexit and back to domestic policy. Not sure if that will work.

It seems to me that if Johnson fights the election on no deal and Corbyn fights it by sitting on the fence, one of them could come an almighty cropper. Not sure which.

 

[Metal Biker]

If we do leave and then apply to rejoin. The terms will be worse than what we have now. Adoption of the Euro, full integration etc.

My whole position now is we should minimise making our position worse.

We can't carry on with this half in, half out position. Even the EU are fed up with our opt outs and refusal to commit to the EU fully.

We either commit fully to the EU project or we leave it and have a trade arrangement.

 

[inbetween]

It is a fairly obvious game plan now from BoJo - maximise no deal / tough stance rhetoric in order to position for a GE. He is talking tough on preventing HoC stopping him but in reality he absolutely wants them to step in and stop him. In that scenario his campaign message is simple - HoC defied will of the people and only Tory gets you brexit. What happens after a GE (i don't think he has planned it as he has no where to go).

As for the GE. Tories are hugely unpopular, as are Labour - it's all about split votes and holding seats with smaller vote shares. I can only envisage that Tories and Labour will both lose seats to the BXP and Lib Dems. The issue i see is the tories losing most - they are banking on the northern leave towns voting tory - they wont, those people are traditionally labour and will prefer the bxp over tory - they just are not BoJo people. Tory still come 3rd in most of those i would think and the bxp will not get more than 20ish. On the other hand labour and tory stand to lose at least 50~60 to lib dems in the south and tories will get wiped out in scotland to Lib Dem / SNP. Both big net losses for Tory/Labour and crucially I dont think the BXP will off set the tory losses to get a brexit majority. The bottom line is that no deal brexit is just not as popular as the tory strategists think - and the areas where it are do not align with any record of tory success.

I'm not so sure. Much of the north voted Tory (unless you are in a northern city) and much of the north voted for Brexit.

My constituency for example (South Ribble) voted 59% to leave and the Tory MP gained 53% of the vote.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36614758

Why would any Brexit supporter in Lancashire vote Labour if they go wholeheartedly for remain? It is a huge risk for Labour.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

I did read somewhere that Milne has convinced Corbyn to revert back to “constructive ambiguity” if there’s an election. Apparently they believe that they can switch the focus of the election away from brexit and back to domestic policy. Not sure if that will work.

It seems to me that if Johnson fights the election on no deal and Corbyn fights it by sitting on the fence, one of them could come an almighty cropper. Not sure which.

Why not both, I expect Tories to lose the biggest number of seats and vote share but Labour wont be far behind and from a lower start and given they are in opposition against complete dross their result will be 10x worse.

There are other parties. The days of outright majority could be all over and we enter the world of coalition politics which is fairly common across Europe. I would take a Labour/Remain coalition. For one thing it would be the end of Corbyn. When the history books are written about this period of British politics the one thing they will never be able to express in strong enough terms is how abjectly awful he has been as a political leader. How could it have been so bad people will wonder - Corbyn will be the answer.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

We can't carry on with this half in, half out position. Even the EU are fed up with our opt outs and refusal to commit to the EU fully.

We either commit fully to the EU project or we leave it and have a trade arrangement.

BS - there is zero pressure to join the euro or adopt other EU structures. Our membership on current terms, inclusive of veto and opt outs, is far greater than pushing anything that would force us to leave. There would be no issue at all if we revoked A50 and just stayed as we are. None.

 

[Ban-jani]

We can't carry on with this half in, half out position. Even the EU are fed up with our opt outs and refusal to commit to the EU fully.

We either commit fully to the EU project or we leave it and have a trade arrangement.

What’s this based on? I actually agree eventually we’ll be expected to fully integrate, maybe, but nothing suggests we have to imminently.

We have the cake and eat it scenario now why fuck that up because of what may happen?

 

[west didsblue]

We can't carry on with this half in, half out position. Even the EU are fed up with our opt outs and refusal to commit to the EU fully.

We either commit fully to the EU project or we leave it and have a trade arrangement.

Or we stay as we are.

To get an EU trade agreement we first need a WA which will cost us £39bn. Either that or we sell our sovereignty to the US in exchange for a shit transatlantic trade deal. Or we could eventually do both. Neither sounds particularly appealing.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

If we do leave and then apply to rejoin. The terms will be worse than what we have now. Adoption of the Euro, full integration etc.

My whole position now is we should minimise making our position worse.

He knows. And everyone who has made that comparison knows. It's just plain dumb to suggest that it's analogous.

 

[Ban-jani]

He knows. And everyone who has made that comparison knows. It's just plain dumb to suggest that it's analogous.

I think a few people are now realising the current agreement is better than any other eventuality from here on in. Hopefully the wider public now realise this too.