Another new Brexit thread

[blueinsa]

That doesn't explain why Nissan would now prefer Sunderland to Barcelona.
9
Nearly a billion pounds in state aid might...
http://www.corporate-welfare-watch.org.uk/wp/2017/09/26/nissan-nearly-1bn-corporate-welfare/

And not a fucking jot can Germany or France now do about it.

Level playing field?

Don't think so.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

And not a fucking jot can Germany or France now do about it.

Level playing field?

Don't think so.

Not sure you understand this.

The plant has received £800m of uk support over 30 yeas while we were in the EU. That is why they are there and it was most likely good value for money given the prosperity of the region and number of decent jobs maintained over that timeframe.

Nissan have said that in a no deal scenario their EU business model will be unsustainable, so that plant will very likely close or we will have to throw a massive amount of money at them. Are we throwing money at every manufacturing business that needs support post brexit? A massive cost to add to the already obscene cost of delivering brexit. Or are we going to let them all close?

None of this backs up any rationale to leave the EU.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

Not sure how stating facts is ‘naivety’. Is that a Brexit thing? The EU is not a major geo political power because it has no competence in areas that would make it so ie Foreign, defence policy etc. The EU’s area is trade policy which it does project successfully beyond the borders of Europe.

That this pandemic may lead to an increase in EU competence is now looking likely. A coordinated health policy would have proven useful in a pandemic and with the desire to shorten production supply chains and have more control on health supplies will accelerate a common Europe wide health competence.

The recovery package, assuming it passes, will also formalise a more federalised monetary policy. The key point though is that like everything in the EU the member states have to agree on it happening and then make it happen. How federalised the EU becomes is in the gift of its sovereign members. Unless they agree on and vote for something to happen then it ain’t happening. Brexiteers never seem to grasp this point. UK politicians never seem to grasp it either hence Frost babbling that his letter was about trying to ‘alert European capitals about what the EU was demanding in negotiations’. European capitals already know. They are the ones who gave Barnier his fucking mandate in the negotiations. What they say goes. In four years of negotiations Brexiteers still haven’t grasped this basic fact.

Can the EU and it’s member states develop into a major geo-political power? Until now it has been content to let the US do the heavy lifting. However the US has disappeared up its own arse and China is filling the gap left by the US and it’s world view is not a pretty one so someone has to counter this with a more enlightened view. The major European countries are not keen on doing so but they are being increasingly forced to protect their interests overseas so again I see this crossroads moment in world leadership forcing the EU into exerting a bigger influence in foreign policy. Historically the EU has evolved faster in a crisis with the temporary becoming permanent. The pandemic and the US self immolating are the stimuli forcing this current evolution.

This leaves three European countries outside of the European norm. Russia, Belarus and the UK, we will assume the UK goes full Russia. How do these countries deal with an expanding EU and potentially a more coordinated EU in areas like foreign policy and defence? Belarus is in the Russian orbit and Russia is seen to be increasingly dependent on China given the EU countries won’t play ball with them. Ukrainian EU membership in 2024 will increase tensions and deepen Russian frustration that the EU never gave them the special status they felt was their right as a former superpower (echoes of the UK). China is now Russia’s biggest trade partner although Germany is still second despite EU sanctions.

If Russia gravitates into the Chinese camp I guess the only camp left for the UK (assuming it remains intact) is the US camp. China will be out given current tensions over HK, Covid-19, and the EU will be out given the Govt is now allergic to all things European despite our reliance on Europe. The Brexit playbook didn’t have it playing out like this. Our exit was meant to trigger the breakup of the EU and Global Britain would then lead the confused, weary nations of Europe out of the darkness and into the light blah, blah.

Personally I think we will be in the US camp but symbolically rather than practically. We will sign a US deal that yields some low hanging fruit and will it be hailed as a triumph In the same way we hailed our handling of the pandemic as a triumph (although not so much these days) and no doubt there will be some deal with the EU that allows us to keep the country running and it too will be hailed as a triumph no matter the actual substance.

Countries can live on pretence and slogans. It’s only when something serious turns up that it exposes the shallowness behind it and even then some people will still refuse to look behind the curtain.

NATO?

 

[BobKowalski]

The benefit of Brexit. Interesting point from the Economist. In short the proposed EU Financial Recovery Plan would not have been possible without Brexit as Britain would have vetoed it.

Usually the UK shared common ground with the Dutch, Danes etc who now find themselves isolated. Has Brexit strengthened the position of Spain, Italy within the EU and given it better balance?

https://www.economist.com/europe/2020/05/30/the-eus-recovery-fund-is-a-benefit-of-brexit

 

[BobKowalski]

That doesn't explain why Nissan would now prefer Sunderland to Barcelona.
9
Nearly a billion pounds in state aid might...
http://www.corporate-welfare-watch.org.uk/wp/2017/09/26/nissan-nearly-1bn-corporate-welfare/

It’s Renault who will ultimately decide the future of Sunderland if I recall correctly. Nissan didn’t even reference Sunderland in their press conference.

If the current trading arrangements are pretty much replicated then the plant will likely be kept which ironically puts pressure on the UK in the negotiations with the EU. You also have Macron making auto bailouts conditional on increasing production in France so not sure how that plays out in the eventual thinking.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

The benefit of Brexit. Interesting point from the Economist. In short the proposed EU Financial Recovery Plan would not have been possible without Brexit as Britain would have vetoed it.

Usually the UK shared common ground with the Dutch, Danes etc who now find themselves isolated. Has Brexit strengthened the position of Spain, Italy within the EU and given it better balance?

https://www.economist.com/europe/2020/05/30/the-eus-recovery-fund-is-a-benefit-of-brexit

Yes we would of vetoed it no doubt.

 

[stonerblue]

Not sure how stating facts is ‘naivety’. Is that a Brexit thing? The EU is not a major geo political power because it has no competence in areas that would make it so ie Foreign, defence policy etc. The EU’s area is trade policy which it does project successfully beyond the borders of Europe.

That this pandemic may lead to an increase in EU competence is now looking likely. A coordinated health policy would have proven useful in a pandemic and with the desire to shorten production supply chains and have more control on health supplies will accelerate a common Europe wide health competence.

The recovery package, assuming it passes, will also formalise a more federalised monetary policy. The key point though is that like everything in the EU the member states have to agree on it happening and then make it happen. How federalised the EU becomes is in the gift of its sovereign members. Unless they agree on and vote for something to happen then it ain’t happening. Brexiteers never seem to grasp this point. UK politicians never seem to grasp it either hence Frost babbling that his letter was about trying to ‘alert European capitals about what the EU was demanding in negotiations’. European capitals already know. They are the ones who gave Barnier his fucking mandate in the negotiations. What they say goes. In four years of negotiations Brexiteers still haven’t grasped this basic fact.

Can the EU and it’s member states develop into a major geo-political power? Until now it has been content to let the US do the heavy lifting. However the US has disappeared up its own arse and China is filling the gap left by the US and it’s world view is not a pretty one so someone has to counter this with a more enlightened view. The major European countries are not keen on doing so but they are being increasingly forced to protect their interests overseas so again I see this crossroads moment in world leadership forcing the EU into exerting a bigger influence in foreign policy. Historically the EU has evolved faster in a crisis with the temporary becoming permanent. The pandemic and the US self immolating are the stimuli forcing this current evolution.

This leaves three European countries outside of the European norm. Russia, Belarus and the UK, we will assume the UK goes full Russia. How do these countries deal with an expanding EU and potentially a more coordinated EU in areas like foreign policy and defence? Belarus is in the Russian orbit and Russia is seen to be increasingly dependent on China given the EU countries won’t play ball with them. Ukrainian EU membership in 2024 will increase tensions and deepen Russian frustration that the EU never gave them the special status they felt was their right as a former superpower (echoes of the UK). China is now Russia’s biggest trade partner although Germany is still second despite EU sanctions.

If Russia gravitates into the Chinese camp I guess the only camp left for the UK (assuming it remains intact) is the US camp. China will be out given current tensions over HK, Covid-19, and the EU will be out given the Govt is now allergic to all things European despite our reliance on Europe. The Brexit playbook didn’t have it playing out like this. Our exit was meant to trigger the breakup of the EU and Global Britain would then lead the confused, weary nations of Europe out of the darkness and into the light blah, blah.

Personally I think we will be in the US camp but symbolically rather than practically. We will sign a US deal that yields some low hanging fruit and will it be hailed as a triumph In the same way we hailed our handling of the pandemic as a triumph (although not so much these days) and no doubt there will be some deal with the EU that allows us to keep the country running and it too will be hailed as a triumph no matter the actual substance.

Countries can live on pretence and slogans. It’s only when something serious turns up that it exposes the shallowness behind it and even then some people will still refuse to look behind the curtain.

Excellent read.

 

[stonerblue]

And not a fucking jot can Germany or France now do about it.

Level playing field?

Don't think so.

Given that this 'state aid' has been handed out whilst we were in the eu, what have France and Germany been 'doing about it'?

 

[west didsblue]

Not sure you understand this.

The plant has received £800m of uk support over 30 yeas while we were in the EU. That is why they are there and it was most likely good value for money given the prosperity of the region and number of decent jobs maintained over that timeframe.

Nissan have said that in a no deal scenario their EU business model will be unsustainable, so that plant will very likely close or we will have to throw a massive amount of money at them. Are we throwing money at every manufacturing business that needs support post brexit? A massive cost to add to the already obscene cost of delivering brexit. Or are we going to let them all close?

None of this backs up any rationale to leave the EU.

​

The other possibility is that Nissan’s strategy is to try and corner the UK market in the event of No Deal. In that situation all imports will have a 10% tariff. There will also be additional costs due to the weaker pound, customs, logistics, regulatory differences etc making EU imports unaffordable for many.

Someone will have to fill the gap and I think Nissan may see themselves as doing that. They’ve already said they’re leaving the rest of European market to Renault so it just leaves the UK for them in Europe. They will have to massively change their supply chains so they’re not dependent on the majority of components coming in from Europe so that could be good news for some UK component manufacturers. This approach will require a huge amount of investment to re-source components locally and will depend on the UK market being strong enough to support this huge plant that currently exports 70% of its production.

The big loser in all of this will be the average UK consumer who will only be left with one affordable car supplier, and even then costs would be higher as Nissan would want to recoup their investment and they would not have any competition to keep prices down.

The other downside is that this plan would only work if the other volume car producers in the UK decided to shut their UK operations. Also it would depend on there not being a trade deal with Japan because that would open the UK market to all the other Japanese brands and Nissan may as well consolidate production in its home country because the benefits of being the only volume car producer in the UK would be gone.

 

[BobKowalski]

Re my post on Renault deciding on European production not Nissan...

‘Nothing from Renault this morning on previous reports that they’d shift production of Kadjar and Captur to Nissan Sunderland... indeed the safety of the two Spanish factories that produce those cars guaranteed - not affected by rather significant cuts elsewhere’ @BBC

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

The other possibility is that Nissan’s strategy is to try and corner the UK market in the event of No Deal. In that situation all imports will have a 10% tariff. There will also be additional costs due to the weaker pound, customs, logistics, regulatory differences etc making EU imports unaffordable for many.

Someone will have to fill the gap and I think Nissan may see themselves as doing that. They’ve already said they’re leaving the rest of European market to Renault so it just leaves the UK for them in Europe. They will have to massively change their supply chains so they’re not dependent on the majority of components coming in from Europe so that could be good news for some UK component manufacturers. This approach will require a huge amount of investment to re-source components locally and will depend on the UK market being strong enough to support this huge plant that currently exports 70% of its production.

The big loser in all of this will be the average UK consumer who will only be left with one affordable car supplier, and even then costs would be higher as Nissan would want to recoup their investment and they would not have any competition to keep prices down.

The other downside is that this plan would only work if the other volume car producers in the UK decided to shut their UK operations. Also it would depend on there not being a trade deal with Japan because that would open the UK market to all the other Japanese brands and Nissan may as well consolidate production in its home country because the benefits of being the only volume car producer in the UK would be gone.

I think its pretty hard for them to calculate what will happen. The car plants are the top of the tree with lots of smaller suppliers building small components. The margins with each step up the chain are thin and each smaller supplier will have a handful of key contracts and will be sourcing materials and other components here and in the EU. They will all face increased cost and they will all look to pass these costs on. Some of these businesses will fail, that is clear. The alternatives to the failed businesses will be more expensive. Add all that to the headline tariff on EU car imports / exports and it is incredibly difficult to predict how the market will work in the UK.

 

[west didsblue]

I think its pretty hard for them to calculate what will happen. The car plants are the top of the tree with lots of smaller suppliers building small components. The margins with each step up the chain are thin and each smaller supplier will have a handful of key contracts and will be sourcing materials and other components here and in the EU. They will all face increased cost and they will all look to pass these costs on. Some of these businesses will fail, that is clear. The alternatives to the failed businesses will be more expensive. Add all that to the headline tariff on EU car imports / exports and it is incredibly difficult to predict how the market will work in the UK.

Agreed and I think they’re just keeping their options open at the moment until things become a little clearer.

 

[smudgedj]

Are you okay, Smudge? From the news tonight the virus looks to be getting serious round your way.
Stay safe, blue.

We are all good here thanks; the wife hasn’t seen any new cases for a few days and they are thinking to start opening slowly up over the next 15 days or so. I can only talk about here though as the State Governments are in charge individually.

 

[Metal Biker]

Try selling Nissans into the Eu when they're subject to tariffs ...... try assembling them when 70% of the parts come from the Eu .

Think you need to be directing your anger at Nissan, then, not someone on a football forum.

You know, since this is NISSAN who has made the decision to shut down in Spain and stay in the UK, not the British public.

 

[Metal Biker]

Yes we would of vetoed it no doubt.

Another veto...

Why were we in it again if we keep vetoing everything the "EU" agrees with? Oh yeah, for trade! Well that ship has sailed.

 

[BobKowalski]

NATO?

Will likely survive as long as there is a commonality of purpose for it to survive. Europe has a greater investment in seeing it survive but the argument for a common European Defence project is greater than ever and can run alongside NATO. Relying on the US is no longer a viable strategy.

But we are talking wider than just NATO. The interests of the EU countries are not always the interests of the US so the EU has to meet that challenge and develop a more robust foreign policy voice alongside its trade voice given trade is very often a proxy for foreign policy.

It is disappointing that the EU has not spoken out more forcibly on Hong Kong for example but then that is partly our fault. The UK, Australia and Canada have spoken out and ordinarily we would have lobbied the EU as a member and worked on adding their weight to our diplomatic efforts. Now that we are shunning the EU we can no longer do this which weakens our position with China. The US has weighed in but not in a manner that helps HK. The US has said HK is now China therefore sanctions also apply to HK which I don’t imagine is what the UK wants right given that 250,000 Chinese British nationals live there. The US is using HK as a weapon to fight China not help HK or the UK. We have no influence or say on US diplomacy unless the US wants something which isn’t often. We no longer have a say on European diplomacy either. Our loss of influence on a global stage is self evident and self inflicted.

 

[BobKowalski]

Think you need to be directing your anger at Nissan, then, not someone on a football forum.

You know, since this is NISSAN who has made the decision to shut down in Spain and stay in the UK, not the British public.

Renault is the one that decides on European production not Nissan. Two plants in Spain are guaranteed so they have not shut down in Spain.

 

[Vic]

And not a fucking jot can Germany or France now do about it.

Level playing field?

Don't think so.

They didn't do anything about it. Another pointless post.

 

[Metal Biker]

Renault is the one that decides on European production not Nissan. Two plants in Spain are guaranteed so they have not shut down in Spain.

Christ, you're so pedantic.

"Spain", ergo the plant in Barcelona. It's like you're looking for arguments that aren't there or intended.

 

[west didsblue]

Our loss of influence on a global stage is self evident and self inflicted.

This is what taking back control looks like.